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chasmmi

Winter Game SOTM 5 - I'll predict that for a dollar

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I like this question and I want it to give a little more reward than it did during the summer so a couple of things have been tweaked...

 

Below will be 10 predictions for you to make. You must predict all 10, there is no abstaining.

 

The closer you get to the perfect prediction, the more points you will score. However if you go even 1 cent too high on a prediction, you will lose points for that prediction. It is basically price is right rules (and thus instead of abstaining you can just predict 1 dollar for each prediction).

 

The predictions for you to make are:

 

1. What will Dr Strange's total be at the end of the game?

2. What will Arrival's total be by the end of the game?

3. What will Passengers' 3 day OW be?

4. What will Underworld's Second weekend percentage drop be?

5. What will be the difference in gross between Hacksaw and Allied by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)?

 

6. What will La La Land's multiplier be from it's (9th December limited) opening weekend?

7. What will Moana's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)?

8. How many days will Fantastic Beasts make more than $1M?

9. What will Sing's Opening Day including Previews be?

10. How much will Rogue One make in Thursday previews?

 

Here is the scoring:

 

Be lower than the final total - 100 points

Be within 50% of the final total - 500 points

Be within 40% of the final total - 1000 points

Be within 30% of the final total - 3000 points

Be within 25% of the final total - 5000 points

Be within 20% of the final total - 8000 points

Be within 15% of the final total - 12000 points

Be within 10% of the final total - 16000 points

Be within 7.5% of the final total - 20000 points

Be within 5% of the final total - 25000 points

Be within 2.5% of the final total - 35000 points

 

Be over the final total by even $1 and you lose 8000 points for that question.

 

If you score a positive score in all 10 questions, your score is doubled.

If you score a positive score in 9 out of 10 questions, your score is increased by 50%.

If you score a positive score in 8 out of 10 questions, your score is increased by 25%.

 

Your score will also be rounded up to the nearest 1000 points for ease of scoring.

 

So technically you can score 700,000 points from this question, but it does require you to be god and our current rate of return for predictions last summer suggests that 700k is not in danger :) 

 

Deadline is MONDAY at 11:59pm (As I am a little late making it and it shouldn't be too question breaking allowing the weekend to happen :)

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Time to lowball the shit out of this.

 

1. What will Dr Strange's total be at the end of the game?  214M

2. What will Arrival's total be by the end of the game? 66M

3. What will Passengers' 3 day OW be? 42M

4. What will Underworld's Second weekend percentage drop be? 50%

5. What will be the difference in gross between Hacksaw and Allied by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? 5M

 

6. What will La La Land's multiplier be from it's (9th December limited) opening weekend?  65x

7. What will Moana's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)?  105M

8. How many days will Fantastic Beasts make more than $1M? 20

9. What will Sing's Opening Day including Previews be? 10.3M

10. How much will Rogue One make in Thursday previews? 12M

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1. What will Dr Strange's total be at the end of the game? 208M

2. What will Arrival's total be by the end of the game? 71M

3. What will Passengers' 3 day OW be? 38M

4. What will Underworld's Second weekend percentage drop be? 56 percent

5. What will be the difference in gross between Hacksaw and Allied by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? 22M

 

6. What will La La Land's multiplier be from it's (9th December limited) opening weekend? 24x

7. What will Moana's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)? 103M

8. How many days will Fantastic Beasts make more than $1M? 28

9. What will Sing's Opening Day including Previews be? 29M

10. How much will Rogue One make in Thursday previews? 16M

 

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You monster.

 

1. What will Dr Strange's total be at the end of the game? $225m

2. What will Arrival's total be by the end of the game? $79m

3. What will Passengers' 3 day OW be? 18m

4. What will Underworld's Second weekend percentage drop be? -55%

5. What will be the difference in gross between Hacksaw and Allied by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? $4m

 

6. What will La La Land's multiplier be from it's (9th December limited) opening weekend? 21x

7. What will Moana's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)? $110m

8. How many days will Fantastic Beasts make more than $1M? 26

9. What will Sing's Opening Day including Previews be? $8.5m

10. How much will Rogue One make in Thursday previews? $13.4m

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1. What will Dr Strange's total be at the end of the game? 212m

2. What will Arrival's total be by the end of the game? 75m

3. What will Passengers' 3 day OW be? 33m

4. What will Underworld's Second weekend percentage drop be? -52%

5. What will be the difference in gross between Hacksaw and Allied by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? 7m

 

6. What will La La Land's multiplier be from it's (9th December limited) opening weekend? 40x

7. What will Moana's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)? 100m

8. How many days will Fantastic Beasts make more than $1M? 26

9. What will Sing's Opening Day including Previews be? 15m

10. How much will Rogue One make in Thursday previews? 15m

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@chasmmi, can you clarify how #5 would be scored? If Hacksaw makes 50m and Allied makes 90m (for example), with a 40m difference, and you put 20m, are you screwed or not? Or, conversely, if Hacksaw makes 65m and Allied makes 70m and you put 6m? You're much more accurate on the second example, but it sounds like the first is closer to the spirit of the question.

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1. What will Dr Strange's total be at the end of the game? 210M

2. What will Arrival's total be by the end of the game? 70M

3. What will Passengers' 3 day OW be? 40M

4. What will Underworld's Second weekend percentage drop be? 50%

5. What will be the difference in gross between Hacksaw and Allied by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? 20M

 

6. What will La La Land's multiplier be from it's (9th December limited) opening weekend? 50x

7. What will Moana's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)? 110M

8. How many days will Fantastic Beasts make more than $1M? 20

9. What will Sing's Opening Day including Previews be? 10M

10. How much will Rogue One make in Thursday previews? 15M

 

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1. What will Dr Strange's total be at the end of the game? 205M

2. What will Arrival's total be by the end of the game? 68M

3. What will Passengers' 3 day OW be? 29M

4. What will Underworld's Second weekend percentage drop be? 53%

5. What will be the difference in gross between Hacksaw and Allied by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? 4M

 

6. What will La La Land's multiplier be from it's (9th December limited) opening weekend? 20x

7. What will Moana's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)? 105m

8. How many days will Fantastic Beasts make more than $1M? 24

9. What will Sing's Opening Day including Previews be? 15M

10. How much will Rogue One make in Thursday previews? 15M

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1. What will Dr Strange's total be at the end of the game? 215m

2. What will Arrival's total be by the end of the game? 65m

3. What will Passengers' 3 day OW be? 25m

4. What will Underworld's Second weekend percentage drop be? 50%

5. What will be the difference in gross between Hacksaw and Allied by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? 15m

 

6. What will La La Land's multiplier be from it's (9th December limited) opening weekend? 20x

7. What will Moana's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)? 110m

8. How many days will Fantastic Beasts make more than $1M? 18

9. What will Sing's Opening Day including Previews be? 12m

10. How much will Rogue One make in Thursday previews? 20m

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1. What will Dr Strange's total be at the end of the game? 225M

2. What will Arrival's total be by the end of the game? 80M

3. What will Passengers' 3 day OW be? 26M

4. What will Underworld's Second weekend percentage drop be? -55%

5. What will be the difference in gross between Hacksaw and Allied by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? 20M

 

6. What will La La Land's multiplier be from it's (9th December limited) opening weekend? 50x

7. What will Moana's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)? 71M

8. How many days will Fantastic Beasts make more than $1M? 20

9. What will Sing's Opening Day including Previews be? 13M

10. How much will Rogue One make in Thursday previews? 16M

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19 hours ago, Nutella of Arabia said:

@chasmmi, can you clarify how #5 would be scored? If Hacksaw makes 50m and Allied makes 90m (for example), with a 40m difference, and you put 20m, are you screwed or not? Or, conversely, if Hacksaw makes 65m and Allied makes 70m and you put 6m? You're much more accurate on the second example, but it sounds like the first is closer to the spirit of the question.

 

@chasmmi? :) 

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19 hours ago, Nutella of Arabia said:

@chasmmi, can you clarify how #5 would be scored? If Hacksaw makes 50m and Allied makes 90m (for example), with a 40m difference, and you put 20m, are you screwed or not? Or, conversely, if Hacksaw makes 65m and Allied makes 70m and you put 6m? You're much more accurate on the second example, but it sounds like the first is closer to the spirit of the question.

 

In that scenario the guy putting 20M will score 500 points for being within 50%, the guy who puts 6M gets minus 8000 for going over. 

 

Think of it similar to Price is right, 

 

If the washing machine is worth $375 and the four bids are $425,  $405,  $380 and $1.

 

The one dollar person wins because they did not go over, even though they were furthest away from the right answer. The question is all about how close do you wnat to risk going with your prediction and getting those big points knowing going 1 dollar, percent etc over will screw you.

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1 minute ago, chasmmi said:

 

In that scenario the guy putting 20M will score 500 points for being within 50%, the guy who puts 6M gets minus 8000 for going over. 

 

Think of it similar to Price is right, 

 

If the washing machine is worth $375 and the four bids are $425,  $405,  $380 and $1.

 

The one dollar person wins because they did not go over, even though they were furthest away from the right answer. The question is all about how close do you wnat to risk going with your prediction and getting those big points knowing going 1 dollar, percent etc over will screw you.

 

Thanks. :) 

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The predictions for you to make are:

 

1. What will Dr Strange's total be at the end of the game?  $214.5M

2. What will Arrival's total be by the end of the game?  $84.75M

3. What will Passengers' 3 day OW be?  $32M

4. What will Underworld's Second weekend percentage drop be? 52.5%

5. What will be the difference in gross between Hacksaw and Allied by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)?  $3M

 

6. What will La La Land's multiplier be from it's (9th December limited) opening weekend?  21

7. What will Moana's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)? $105M

8. How many days will Fantastic Beasts make more than $1M? 25

9. What will Sing's Opening Day including Previews be? $10

10. How much will Rogue One make in Thursday previews? $17.5M

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1. What will Dr Strange's total be at the end of the game? $218M

2. What will Arrival's total be by the end of the game? $70M

3. What will Passengers' 3 day OW be? $28M

4. What will Underworld's Second weekend percentage drop be? 57.4%

5. What will be the difference in gross between Hacksaw and Allied by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? $5M

 

6. What will La La Land's multiplier be from it's (9th December limited) opening weekend? 25x

7. What will Moana's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)? $105M

8. How many days will Fantastic Beasts make more than $1M? 2o

9. What will Sing's Opening Day including Previews be? $15M

10. How much will Rogue One make in Thursday previews? $22.5M

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1. What will Dr Strange's total be at the end of the game? $211M
2. What will Arrival's total be by the end of the game? $70M
3. What will Passengers' 3 day OW be? $25M
4. What will Underworld's Second weekend percentage drop be? -51%
5. What will be the difference in gross between Hacksaw and Allied by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? $1
 
6. What will La La Land's multiplier be from it's (9th December limited) opening weekend? 33x
7. What will Moana's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)? 88M
8. How many days will Fantastic Beasts make more than $1M? 24
9. What will Sing's Opening Day including Previews be? $16M
10. How much will Rogue One make in Thursday previews? $14M

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The predictions for you to make are:

 

1. What will Dr Strange's total be at the end of the game? - 220m

2. What will Arrival's total be by the end of the game? - 76m

3. What will Passengers' 3 day OW be? - 31m

4. What will Underworld's Second weekend percentage drop be? - 55%

5. What will be the difference in gross between Hacksaw and Allied by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? - 9m

 

6. What will La La Land's multiplier be from it's (9th December limited) opening weekend? - 24x

7. What will Moana's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)?

8. How many days will Fantastic Beasts make more than $1M? - 25

9. What will Sing's Opening Day including Previews be? - 106m

10. How much will Rogue One make in Thursday previews? - 22m

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1. What will Dr Strange's total be at the end of the game?  212m

2. What will Arrival's total be by the end of the game? 75m

3. What will Passengers' 3 day OW be? 35m

4. What will Underworld's Second weekend percentage drop be? -53%

5. What will be the difference in gross between Hacksaw and Allied by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? 6M

 

6. What will La La Land's multiplier be from it's (9th December limited) opening weekend?  85x

7. What will Moana's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)?  117m

8. How many days will Fantastic Beasts make more than $1M? 20

9. What will Sing's Opening Day including Previews be? 16m

10. How much will Rogue One make in Thursday previews? 13m

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1. What will Dr Strange's total be at the end of the game? 225M

2. What will Arrival's total be by the end of the game? 70M

3. What will Passengers' 3 day OW be? 35M

4. What will Underworld's Second weekend percentage drop be? -56%

5. What will be the difference in gross between Hacksaw and Allied by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? 15M

 

6. What will La La Land's multiplier be from it's (9th December limited) opening weekend? 60X

7. What will Moana's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)? 100M

8. How many days will Fantastic Beasts make more than $1M? 22

9. What will Sing's Opening Day including Previews be? 18M

10. How much will Rogue One make in Thursday previews? 20M

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