⊃∪∩⪽ | Legendary | October 22 2021 | Denis Villeneuve | Returns to IMAX on December 3

[OncomingStorm93]

I would argue that Denis has actually proven himself as profitable at the box office.

 

Prisoners: $46m budget, $122m earned

Sicario: $30m budget, $85m earned

Arrival: $47m budget, $203m earned

 

Yes, BR2049 was a clunker relative to it's massive budget, but I don't blame Denis for that as much as I do the producers who let Denis make a nearly 3 hour futuristic epic. The fact that it's an incredible film softens the blow.

 

Otherwise, Denis has proven he can turn a modest budget into paying audiences.

[murphydog]

Actually I don't think either side of this argument is incorrect.  All of the below are factual:

1. Dune is a significantly more well-read book than Enders, John Carter, etc.

2. Dune is nowhere near the size of LOTR.

3. Dune's biggest fanbase is older.

4. That being said, any Millennial or Gen Z reader invested in Sci-Fi has either read it or means to.

5. No single cast member is a A+ list celebrity that can draw on their own a la the Damon/Bullock references.

6. Combined, however, the cast is flush with "internet boyfriends" and recognizable names that will create a center of gravity together.
7. And those cast members include Aquaman, Thanos, MJ, Drax, Poe Dameron.  Three MCU fan favorites together alone is enough to perk interest in younger audiences and get on their radar even if they have no knowledge of the subject matter.
8. They have an excellent release date.

9. West Side Story has just as much potential to have a yawn inducing "only for boomers" energy to it upon arrival than it does to be a mega hit with the 30 and under crowd.
10. Denis Villaneuve has proven himself to be allergic to fun, which is fine for a gorgeous mid-budget film like Arrival, but a necessary component to a fantasy mega hit (LOTR was pure geek-dom to the GA, of course, but why it worked for the GA is that is was *also* loaded with fun moments and characters and performances).

11.  While WW1984, NTTD, BW, Tenet, and Eternals will be big films this year, this year has less huge blockbusters than last year had or 2021 will have, which may lead audiences to crave this one more than those years.  While any of those films could hit over 1B, some of them won't and theoretically *none* of them could.  That is not remotely the case for 2020 with Avengers, Star Wars, Lion King, etc or 2021 with Batman, Avatar, JW3, etc.  There will be a void in the year long market that could add hype to this that it could not have garnered in other years. 

 

All of the above signal to me that it should *not* be hard to get the general public's awareness and interest in the film.  But all of the above also signal to me that this will live and die on marketing, not necessarily critical reviews, and will only take off if DV can inject a sense of fun to offset the philosophical themes.

 

I would not be surprised if this bombs, if it is a moderate success, or if it becomes a worldwide phenomenon.  This is why it will be so much fun to track.

 

It needs a compelling trailer that showcases the characters/fun just as much as it does the visuals, and it needs an immense press tour doubling down on Chalamet being goofy and Zendaya being fashionable more so than focusing on DV and just the source material to generate interest in younger audiences.  It absolutely needs excellent reviews, but the reviews won't be enough either.  It needs to be marketed as youthful and fun as much as it is epic/philosophically interesting/beautifully shot.

 

This will be by far the most interesting film of the year.

[TerwillikerInst]

14 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

I would argue that Denis has actually proven himself as profitable at the box office.

 

Prisoners: $46m budget, $122m earned

Sicario: $30m budget, $85m earned

Arrival: $47m budget, $203m earned

 

Yes, BR2049 was a clunker relative to it's massive budget, but I don't blame Denis for that as much as I do the producers who let Denis make a nearly 3 hour futuristic epic. The fact that it's an incredible film softens the blow.

 

Otherwise, Denis has proven he can turn a modest budget into paying audiences.

Exactly, but at the same time this doesn't exactly bode incredibly well for Dune. Denis makes respectable hits out of movies with respectable budgets.

 

With this cast and story, the movie will almost certainly cost well over $100 million and given that WB is already creating TV spinoffs and a shared universe; their expectations are high.

 

And I would argue, perhaps too high to match what Denis or any other director short of a Cameron, Nolan, or Spielberg could realistically do.

Edited January 30, 2020 by TerwillikerInst

[WittyUsername]

As I’m reading through the book, I can’t help but wonder if this might’ve been better off as a GoT style show on HBO or Netflix.

[Elessar]

3 hours ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

If you want to ignore historical precedent, be my guest.

I remember people saying movies can't open big during December or female superheroes don't make money. We all know how that went for them...

 

And the movies you mentioned looked pretty meh except BR2049 of course but that was a sequel to a flop and more noir cyberpunk than sci-fi epic, so your precedent is pretty lacking and superficial to begin with.

Edited January 30, 2020 by Elessar

[Elessar]

15 minutes ago, murphydog said:

It needs a compelling trailer that showcases the characters/fun just as much as it does the visuals, and it needs an immense press tour doubling down on Chalamet being goofy and Zendaya being fashionable more so than focusing on DV and just the source material to generate interest in younger audiences.  It absolutely needs excellent reviews, but the reviews won't be enough either.  It needs to be marketed as youthful and fun as much as it is epic/philosophically interesting/beautifully shot.

What do you mean by fun? Not every movie needs to ape Marvel. LOTR wasn't marketed as "fun", either. 

[TerwillikerInst]

16 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

As I’m reading through the book, I can’t help but wonder if this might’ve been better off as a GoT style show on HBO or Netflix.

Most hugely complicated fantasy tends to work better on TV than in films, largely because it has more time to introduce potential new audiences to the world, setup, and characters. 

 

Any Dune movie (even if it's only half the book) is still essentially going to be cramming dozens of important characters and subplots into a movie which could range anywhere from two to three hours and that's a big ask.

 

I think what a lot of people here tend to forget is that most of the GA know absolutely nothing about Dune except for the fact that is has a desert and a weird worm monster, perhaps not even that much.

Edited January 30, 2020 by TerwillikerInst

[dudalb]

19 hours ago, Merkel said:

The sucesss or lack of for this movie will not depend, for better or worse, on the book's popularity, as incredible as it is

It all depends on how well the book is adapted. We have all seen some really good books made into really lousy movies. Bad handling can ruin the best source material.

[dudalb]

18 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

As I’m reading through the book, I can’t help but wonder if this might’ve been better off as a GoT style show on HBO or Netflix.

They did a minseries based on "Dune" in the late 90's, but it was hampered by a low budget.

[Alpha]

25 minutes ago, murphydog said:

It needs a compelling trailer that showcases the characters/fun just as much as it does the visuals, and it needs an immense press tour doubling down on Chalamet being goofy and Zendaya being fashionable more so than focusing on DV and just the source material to generate interest in younger audiences.  It absolutely needs excellent reviews, but the reviews won't be enough either.  It needs to be marketed as youthful and fun as much as it is epic/philosophically interesting/beautifully shot.

[OncomingStorm93]

6 minutes ago, Elessar said:

I remember people saying movies can't open big during December or female superheroes don't make money. We all know how that went for them...

 

And the movies you mentioned looked pretty meh except BR2049 of course but that was a sequel to a flop and more noir cyberpunk than sci-fi epic, so your precedent is pretty lacking and superficial to begin with.

If you have any alternative precedent that would suggest a more-than-modest box office run (I've been saying $450m WW), I'd be happy to see your examples.

[dudalb]

3 minutes ago, TerwillikerInst said:

Most hugely complicated fantasy tends to work better on TV than in films, largely because it has more time to introduce potential new audiences to the world, setup, and characters. 

 

Any Dune movie (even if it's only half the book) is still essentially going to be cramming dozens of important characters and subplots into a movie which could range anywhere from two to three hours and that's a big ask.

 

I think what a lot of people here tend to forget is that most of the GA know absolutely nothing about Dune except for the fact that is has a desert and a weird worm monster, perhaps not even that much.

I would go farther and say any really long and complicated novel might work better as a TV miniseries then a movie.

I can name several historical novels which suffered in the screen version because the had to pack too much into a movie.

[JGAR4LIFE]

21 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

As I’m reading through the book, I can’t help but wonder if this might’ve been better off as a GoT style show on HBO or Netflix.

It literally could’ve been the next big tv phenomenon if that were the case 

[JGAR4LIFE]

43 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

The better question is, where will they release the sequel (assuming there is one)? The next bunch of Decembers are going to be filled with Avatar films and Star Wars films.

Mid November. Just like how Disney is slating those two for the Decembers this decade, Warner Bros. could do the same for this and Fantastic Beasts.

 

Or they could do an annual release as well.

[dudalb]

28 minutes ago, murphydog said:

Actually I don't think either side of this argument is incorrect.  All of the below are factual:

1. Dune is a significantly more well-read book than Enders, John Carter, etc.

2. Dune is nowhere near the size of LOTR.

3. Dune's biggest fanbase is older.

4. That being said, any Millennial or Gen Z reader invested in Sci-Fi has either read it or means to.

5. No single cast member is a A+ list celebrity that can draw on their own a la the Damon/Bullock references.

6. Combined, however, the cast is flush with "internet boyfriends" and recognizable names that will create a center of gravity together.
7. And those cast members include Aquaman, Thanos, MJ, Drax, Poe Dameron.  Three MCU fan favorites together alone is enough to perk interest in younger audiences and get on their radar even if they have no knowledge of the subject matter.
8. They have an excellent release date.

9. West Side Story has just as much potential to have a yawn inducing "only for boomers" energy to it upon arrival than it does to be a mega hit with the 30 and under crowd.
10. Denis Villaneuve has proven himself to be allergic to fun, which is fine for a gorgeous mid-budget film like Arrival, but a necessary component to a fantasy mega hit (LOTR was pure geek-dom to the GA, of course, but why it worked for the GA is that is was *also* loaded with fun moments and characters and performances).

11.  While WW1984, NTTD, BW, Tenet, and Eternals will be big films this year, this year has less huge blockbusters than last year had or 2021 will have, which may lead audiences to crave this one more than those years.  While any of those films could hit over 1B, some of them won't and theoretically *none* of them could.  That is not remotely the case for 2020 with Avengers, Star Wars, Lion King, etc or 2021 with Batman, Avatar, JW3, etc.  There will be a void in the year long market that could add hype to this that it could not have garnered in other years. 

 

All of the above signal to me that it should *not* be hard to get the general public's awareness and interest in the film.  But all of the above also signal to me that this will live and die on marketing, not necessarily critical reviews, and will only take off if DV can inject a sense of fun to offset the philosophical themes.

 

I would not be surprised if this bombs, if it is a moderate success, or if it becomes a worldwide phenomenon.  This is why it will be so much fun to track.

 

It needs a compelling trailer that showcases the characters/fun just as much as it does the visuals, and it needs an immense press tour doubling down on Chalamet being goofy and Zendaya being fashionable more so than focusing on DV and just the source material to generate interest in younger audiences.  It absolutely needs excellent reviews, but the reviews won't be enough either.  It needs to be marketed as youthful and fun as much as it is epic/philosophically interesting/beautifully shot.

 

This will be by far the most interesting film of the year.

God, has this guy even read "Dune"?

To begin with, Dune is in terms of character and plot, roughly the same as LOTR, though it not quite as long in word count.

And "Dune" is NOT a youthful and fun novel. It is pretty serious.often dark  novel.

And it gets even more serious if you know that "Dune Messiah" the first "sequel" to the novel, was written by Frank Herbert as the last part of Dune, but the publishers made him cut it because  they were worried about the length of the novel, and it does not have a happy ending. After Dune became a surprise success, they published "Dune Messiah " as a sequel, though it was intended as a part of the first novel.

Piece of advice: always be sure you know what you are talking about before you comment on something.

[dudalb]

8 minutes ago, Alpha said:

My thoughts exactly.

"Youthful and Fun" is not a good description of "Dune".

[dudalb]

32 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

As I’m reading through the book, I can’t help but wonder if this might’ve been better off as a GoT style show on HBO or Netflix.

You really want to read "Dune Messiah" as soon as you finish "Dune", It was written as and intended to be by Herbert as the last part of "Dune" but the publishers forced him to cut it from the novel.

[murphydog]

45 minutes ago, Elessar said:

What do you mean by fun? Not every movie needs to ape Marvel. LOTR wasn't marketed as "fun", either. 

 

29 minutes ago, dudalb said:

God, has this guy even read "Dune"?

To begin with, Dune is in terms of character and plot, roughly the same as LOTR, though it not quite as long in word count.

And "Dune" is NOT a youthful and fun novel. It is pretty serious.often dark  novel.

...........

Piece of advice: always be sure you know what you are talking about before you comment on something.

To clarify, I don't want Dune to be anything close to MCU or the JV MCU films other studios are trotting out.  Not only am I pretty sick of that vibe and its overexposure in the industry to be honest, and it would never remotely work with the source material.  But "fun" does not have to mean MCU humor and color palette and music.  Fun means thrilling, compelling characters, engaging.  Not just dark and serious and visually beautiful, because in this day and age, that doesn't mean anything to the GA for films (although it works in spades on HBO/streaming, which is why I also think the dream for this property would have been a GoT quality series).  If the audience gets a sense of that, they'll come because the release date, cast, etc will be enough for great awareness.  If it's marketed a la BR2049 as the "dark and serious and visually beautiful" only, they'll pass even if the film is excellent.  Critics will probably love it.  But that's not necessarily enough to get butts in seats either as we saw with BR2049 (granted, a much much much smaller fanbase to start with).

 

The reason why LOTR worked so well is that it too was a dark and serious novel *and* film, but Jackson's character work with Gandalf, Legolas, Gimli, Pippin/Merry made it so that GA audiences outside of the LOTR fanbase could connect with the film.

 

I love DV, like really love him, but that, so far at least, has not been remotely his strength as others have suggested.  And so the difference between Dune making $350M and $500M+ WW is going to lie in whether audiences get a good sense of characters in the marketing in a similar way that they did to LOTR.  

 

All I'm saying is the doomsday heralders and boosters in this thread all have correct points.  There are ways this film can be huge, and there are ways this film can fizzle at the BO.  It's unquestionably going to have strong awareness from the GA.  But the way it is marketed and promoted will be the difference here.  And if it is presented to the audience as dark and serious only, even if the film is excellent, this will not be a big hit.  

 

I think that's why this film will be by far the most interesting one to watch.  It has all the potential to both fizzle and be ginormous at the BO.  They have to find a way to market it to be compelling.  The film *will* be compelling, I'm almost sure of that, but with franchise hopes and a presumably big budget and a Christmas release date, it's clear WB also wants this one to be big as well, and so marketing is really going to matter here.

Edited January 30, 2020 by murphydog

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, JGAR4LIFE said:

How many films can they hypothetically make out of these franchise? Because it looks like the first book will be divided into two parts

depends on success and also whether they want to only follow the Atreides clan (God Emperor of Dune is the last) or want to turn it into a Duncan Idaho (Jason Momoa) series in which case it's all 50+ books lol. Duncna gets cloned kazillion times as a ghola which is why he apepars in different timelines some 1000 years into the future. I mean, casting Jason sure implies they want to continue with this character. 

 

50 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

As I’m reading through the book, I can’t help but wonder if this might’ve been better off as a GoT style show on HBO or Netflix.

Sy Fy made a mini based on Dune (Dune) and Dune Messiah+Children of Dune (Children of Dune). despite inferior books, Children is absolutely wonderful probably because they didn't feel intimidated by lesser works and dropped Herbert's stilted dialog allowing the characters to finally feel and sound like human beings. proof that Dune universe can be fun and emotional with the right approach. Also, the score is absolutely stunning.

 

37 minutes ago, TerwillikerInst said:

 

 

Any Dune movie (even if it's only half the book) is still essentially going to be cramming dozens of important characters and subplots into a movie which could range anywhere from two to three hours and that's a big ask.

 

 

not if they know what to cut and there's a lot of "tom bombadils" to cut. it;'s just that Lynch and Sy Fy were afriad to do it. for exmaple, Fenrings are the easiest to get rid of. Nothing is lost without that subplot.

 

Also, splitting the movie in 2 will make Alia less jarring since she's introduced in the last 1/3 of the book and basically serves similar purpose as Paul. 

[OncomingStorm93]

1 hour ago, murphydog said:

I would not be surprised if this bombs, if it is a moderate success, or if it becomes a worldwide phenomenon.  This is why it will be so much fun to track.

 

This will be by far the most interesting film of the year.

Couldn't agree more. This is the biggest box office wildcard of 2020.... at least until we get some concrete marketing (I'm sure that won't be until summer) and can measure the reaction.