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⊃∪∩⪽ | Legendary | October 1 2021... for now | Denis Villeneuve. Starring half of Hollywood.

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19 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

Couldn't agree more. This is the biggest box office wildcard of 2020.... at least until we get some concrete marketing (I'm sure that won't be until summer) and can measure the reaction.

And even then, early marketing reactions could be misleading.  Do you have a bunch of young MCU fans going apeshit over Thanos, MJ, and Dax in a trailer together (with Aquaman and Poe on top of that) but then don't show up to the movie because they perceive it as "boring" compared to the standard CB formula they've been eating up?  Do trailers barely move the needle but then an older fanbase who doesn't use social media as much shows up in droves and WOM propels it to a big phenomenon film?  

 

It's going to be so fun to track.  I'm not going to be sure of anything until presales start in earnest.  

 

The rest of the big films this year, it's more of a "will it hit $800M or $1B" type conversation (Bond, BW, WW) or a clear flop with no chance of redemption (Artemis, Dolittle, etc), whereas the range for this one is all over the place.  If a genie from the future came in here and said, "280M WW" or "1.1B WW" I wouldn't be surprised either way.  It has so many things in its favor, and so many things that make it extremely risky.  

Edited by murphydog

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23 minutes ago, murphydog said:

And even then, early marketing reactions could be misleading.  Do you have a bunch of young MCU fans going apeshit over Thanos, MJ, and Dax in a trailer together (with Aquaman and Poe on top of that) but then don't show up to the movie because they perceive it as "boring" compared to the standard CB formula they've been eating up?  Do trailers barely move the needle but then an older fanbase who doesn't use social media as much shows up in droves and WOM propels it to a big phenomenon film?

The argument of MCU fans making an impact because the cast of an unrelated film features MCU stars is a fallacy. I don't even think that reflects in the marketing. And even then, those of us here are generally able to discern legitimate hype from social media fangirling.

 

Just because any actor can be plugged into the MCU and be made a "star" doesn't mean they can independently draw audiences to an unrelated project. I would point you to the miserable failure of Men In Black International, which coasted on the chemistry that Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson built in Ragnarok. Of course, that film was a complete mess for other reasons, but that goes to show that MCU actors in non-MCU projects doesn't mean squat. MCU actors won't save doomed projects.

 

Not saying Dune is doomed in the slightest, far from it, but I don't for a second buy into the argument that the fact it has MCU actors will make a real impact on how the film (or it's marketing campaign) are received.

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29 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

The argument of MCU fans making an impact because the cast of an unrelated film features MCU stars is a fallacy. I don't even think that reflects in the marketing. And even then, those of us here are generally able to discern legitimate hype from social media fangirling.

 

Just because any actor can be plugged into the MCU and be made a "star" doesn't mean they can independently draw audiences to an unrelated project. I would point you to the miserable failure of Men In Black International, which coasted on the chemistry that Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson built in Ragnarok. Of course, that film was a complete mess for other reasons, but that goes to show that MCU actors in non-MCU projects doesn't mean squat. MCU actors won't save doomed projects.

 

Not saying Dune is doomed in the slightest, far from it, but I don't for a second buy into the argument that the fact it has MCU actors will make a real impact on how the film (or it's marketing campaign) are received.

I certainly agree to a large extent, and personally I've been beyond burnt out by the MCU for a long time now and on top of that, star power guaranteeing big numbers really doesn't exist anymore.  All I'm saying is that while some in this thread were correct that there isn't a Damon/Bullock level star at the helm, the aggregate collection of actors who were also in big roles in huge recent films will ensure a sense of star power even if the bulk of the actors are more A-/B+ list indie/dramatic type actors rather than the J-Laws and DiCaprios of the world.  That's all they need to get the GA's attention, but the marketing direction of the film itself will make the difference between the GA being aware of the film and the GA actually buying a ticket.

 

I feel confident Villeneuve will produce a film that will make the Dune fanbase very happy, and it's a large fanbase.  But with the presumed $100M+ budget and the franchise hopes, they'll need to find a way to rope the GA in as well to make it takeoff.  And that's what I'm most curious about, and the reason I can see this as anything from a colossal bomb to a huge hit.

Edited by murphydog

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This thread really has a detective pikachu feel to it.

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14 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

This thread really has a detective pikachu feel to it.

the office thank you GIF

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A Detective Pikachu vibe, you say? Hmm... $145m domestic, $432m global. What am I predicting for Dune, again?

On 1/29/2020 at 3:31 PM, OncomingStorm93 said:

$150m DOM $450m WW is where I think Dune will end up. Hopefully the budget is reasonable...

Detective Pikachu vibes are fine by me!

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As long as it's great and makes enough to greenlight a sequel. I don't really care what it makes. 

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58 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

This thread really has a detective pikachu feel to it.

Can't shake the feeling that the advertising hysteria will go down a very similar path.

 

Fans of the property and people/sites that are generally "industry" connected will go ape over the marketing while GA won't take much notice.

 

:Edit: This movie's main chance of success (unless they've changed the book drastically) is to sell GA on the visuals and tone and not just market it entirely to the book's fans. 

Edited by TerwillikerInst

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The only difference between this and Pikachu is that the latter had the stupidity of going up against Endgame. 

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6 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

As I’m reading through the book, I can’t help but wonder if this might’ve been better off as a GoT style show on HBO or Netflix.

Again, there is a Dune: The Sisterhood spin-off series in development for HBO Max.

6 hours ago, dudalb said:

They did a minseries based on "Dune" in the late 90's, but it was hampered by a low budget.

The 1984 Lynch movie flopped but the Sci-Fi miniseries was a huge success:

Quote

The six-hour Frank Herbert's Dune aired in three parts, starting Sunday, December 3, 2000.[13] The first installment achieved a 4.6 rating with 3 million homes, and the miniseries averaged a 4.4/2.9 million households over all three nights.[13] This doubled all viewership records for Sci Fi, placing Dune among the top ten of basic cable's original miniseries in the five years previous.[13] Two of the three installments also rated among the year's top 10 original cable movies.[13] To date, The 2000 Dune miniseries and its 2003 sequel are two of the three highest-rated programs ever to be broadcast on the Sci Fi Channel.[1][14]

 

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3 hours ago, tonytr87 said:

As long as it's great and makes enough to greenlight a sequel. I don't really care what it makes. 

So if it doesn't make enough money to greenlight a sequel, you wouldn't care what Dune makes?

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2 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

Again, there is a Dune: The Sisterhood spin-off series in development for HBO Max.

The 1984 Lynch movie flopped but the Sci-Fi miniseries was a huge success:

 

got smoked the same year by another sci-fi movie with one sixth of the budget directed by some unknown. It' s called The Terminator, I heard it's good.

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15 hours ago, Alexdube said:

got smoked the same year by another sci-fi movie with one sixth of the budget directed by some unknown. It' s called The Terminator, I heard it's good.

I could argue it's still Cameron's best film. 

 

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Rob Burnett read a draft of the script, calls it fantastic. Starts at 26:55...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJHEurALEsg

 

EDIT:

lol it just got pulled by WB because he read out loud a scene from the draft in the video. Maybe he should have known better...

Edited by Elessar

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On 1/31/2020 at 9:25 PM, dudalb said:

I could argue it's still Cameron's best film. 

 

Its hard to argue Terminator is a better made movie than Titanic

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3 minutes ago, Ninenin said:

Its hard to argue Terminator is a better made movie than Titanic

One could certainly argue that. Personally, i love both.

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13 minutes ago, Elessar said:

One could certainly argue that. Personally, i love both.

Same. They're both different. I couldn't even tell you whether t2 is better than t1.

 

Aliens might be my favourite but on a visual side, Avatar for me is the greatest movie experience of all time. The script may have been lame but no film has ever truly immersed me into a world like that

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