⊃∪∩⪽ | Legendary | October 22 2021 | Denis Villeneuve | Returns to IMAX on December 3

[Valonqar]

Last time I checked, Max releases that did well in theaters did well on Max and Max release that flopped in theaters flopped on Max. So Dune should have a good run in theaters and on Max. 

 

The way I see it, Bond and especially Venom will make their bank by the time Dune comes out so those holdovers won't steal the audience. Halloween Kills will have a big second weekend drop like all slasher horror (plus sequelitis). Soho doesn't strike me as a movie that could challenge Dune for #1, the most I see is 20Mish opening if buzz is really good and Dune should do better than that or. BR049's 33M OW. More accessible previews, festival buzz will assure headlines, cross-generational cast. Then 2 weeks all to itself til Eternals. Not a flop. 

[Last Man Standing]

43 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This movie trended very high all day on social media when teaser drops, have excellent views and reactions.

 

Even on YouTube this have 34M views on WB channel, and it's not because os ads because this have +600k likes, not too distant of movies like Shang Chi and Eternals.

 

I'm not sure how this gonna perform since we're still on pandemic and the HBO Max factor will hit it at some level, but this seems to have a real interest that ITH never had and i'm sure this won't be seen as a colossal failure like some people expect.

Also worth mentioning that in reddit it's the second most upvoted trailer ever on r/movies. It might be an internet phenomenon, but it is certainly not limited to twitter.

Edited June 25, 2021 by Last Man Standing

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

Also worth mentioning that in reddit it's the second most upvoted trailer ever on r/movies. It might be an internet phenomenon, but it is certainly not limited to twitter.

 

I think Villeneuve was at some point the highest ranked director (current in the sense, next movie not career I think):

 

 

Add the franchise and it was certain to be quite anticipated on that type of platform, Reddit r-movies could be nicher than twitter movies.

[Last Man Standing]

9 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

I think Villeneuve was at some point the highest ranked director (current in the sense, next movie not career I think):

 

 

Add the franchise and it was certain to be quite anticipated on that type of platform, Reddit r-movies could be nicher than twitter movies.

 

It may well be niche, but if you look at the other top trailers there:

 

Incredibles 2

Last Jedi

Sonic

Endgame

Far From Home

 

It's pretty encouraging

[filmlover]

9 hours ago, grim22 said:

It's the next In The Heights where Twitter will not represent real life.

How is the pre-release press coverage for this comparable to that of In the Heights? They aren't even part of the same genre, let alone have the same amount of pedigree behind them (Dune obviously runs circles around it with the budget and all the big names involved).

[Valonqar]

13 hours ago, Last Man Standing said:

Also worth mentioning that in reddit it's the second most upvoted trailer ever on r/movies. It might be an internet phenomenon, but it is certainly not limited to twitter.

 

And it isn't just the Internet. I think people think the book is inaccessible/unadaptable because Lynch movie bombed but they forget or don't know that Sy Fy mini did very well. From Wiki:

 

Frank Herbert's Dune aired in three parts, starting Sunday, December 3, 2000.^[14] The first installment achieved a 4.6 rating with 3 million homes, and the miniseries averaged a 4.4/2.9 million households over all three nights.^[14] This doubled all viewership records for Sci Fi, placing Dune among the top ten of basic cable's original miniseries in the five years previous.^[14] Two of the three installments also rated among the year's top 10 original cable movies.^[14] To date, The 2000 Dune miniseries and its 2003 sequel are two of the three highest-rated programs ever to be broadcast on the Sci Fi Channel.^[2][15]

 

Frank Herbert's Children of Dune and its predecessor Frank Herbert's Dune are two of the three highest-rated programs ever to be broadcast on the Sci-Fi Channel.^[17][1

 

So the material can be adapted in an engaging way and Dune trailer hinted at an engaging movie. It's a space opera with family love, romance, action and politics, not different from Star Wars The Prequels which, minus internet hate, did very well with GA.

[Elessar]

14 hours ago, TMP said:

I don't think it'll do well, but the level of schadenfreude around here over it bombing is very weird lol

It's great source material and one of the best directors working today coming together. People should be celebrating its arrival, not telling us this will flop at every chance they get. Either they have an unhealthy urge to demonstrate their box office prowess to the world or just plain bad taste.

[Valonqar]

I get predictions of doom when it had the atrocious Oct 1 date. But Oct 22 is a game changer. 

[Eric Atreides]

16 hours ago, TMP said:

I don't think it'll do well, but the level of schadenfreude around here over it bombing is very weird lol

I've already got plans to bombard all these doubters with Timothee fancams if this does well and I can't wait.

 

1 hour ago, Elessar said:

It's great source material and one of the best directors working today coming together. People should be celebrating its arrival, not telling us this will flop at every chance they get. Either they have an unhealthy urge to demonstrate their box office prowess to the world or just plain bad taste.

I do disagree with this. You are aware that people can be excited or interested in a movie and also predict it will do poorly at the box office, right? And last time I checked, this is a box office forum.

[filmlover]

Yeah, whether this does well or not, there does seem to be genuine interest in this. This certainly isn't a Scott Pilgrim situation (where it would obviously sell better at a place like Comic-Con than it would anywhere else) or an In the Heights one (where everyone took its positives for granted and only after it fizzled it became apparent why audiences rejected it).

[lorddemaxus]

People seem to be making Villeneuve out to be a far less commercial director than he actually is. His first two American studio films (Prisoners and Arrival) were both decent hits. BR 2049 flopped but it was due to its budget. Had a pretty respectable gross for a sequel to a cult classic flop that only found a following years later it released. It still managed to make as much as Terminator Dark Fate even though Terminator 1 and 2 are far more popular films than Blade Runner. Even Enemy is an incredibly entry-level art-house film that I remember being somewhat easy to get through (like, literally one of the first films I watched when I tried to watch more abstract, art-house work).

 

What matters is the opening weekend, since I doubt this is having really bad legs or something. With a massive ensemble cast and film festival buzz, I don't see why it would open really low. Only problem it has is Eternals 2 weeks later , but only similarity that has is sci-fi and ensemble cast (that's nowhere as big as Dune's tho). I do hope WB fucks off with that HBO Max release crap tho. They aren't gonna get any subs from that.

Edited June 26, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Borobudur]

16 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Last time I checked, Max releases that did well in theaters did well on Max and Max release that flopped in theaters flopped on Max. So Dune should have a good run in theaters and on Max. 

 

The way I see it, Bond and especially Venom will make their bank by the time Dune comes out so those holdovers won't steal the audience. Halloween Kills will have a big second weekend drop like all slasher horror (plus sequelitis). Soho doesn't strike me as a movie that could challenge Dune for #1, the most I see is 20Mish opening if buzz is really good and Dune should do better than that or. BR049's 33M OW. More accessible previews, festival buzz will assure headlines, cross-generational cast. Then 2 weeks all to itself til Eternals. Not a flop. 

Wouldn't this further reinforce the correlation between two where more crowd distracted by hbo max free release after buzzy hit in theater run? Like Gvk attracted 3.6m household after its 48.1m opening. Assuming only 10% of the household would have seen GvK in theater if without hbo max, that would represent 360k to 720k potential loss admission (assuming one household contribute one or two people). This in turn translate a loss in box office of 3.6m~7.2m alone during opening weekend. Carry over the effect across the run, it is safe to say that GvK could have earned 10m more in box office without hbo max. And that was with HBO max had fewer subscribers back in late-March, could have grow much bigger by October.    

[Elessar]

3 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

I do disagree with this. You are aware that people can be excited or interested in a movie and also predict it will do poorly at the box office, right? And last time I checked, this is a box office forum.

 

I did say "Either they have an unhealthy urge to demonstrate their box office prowess", so people you mentioned might fall in that category. I am not trying to ban box office predictions and i'm mainly talking about the "persistent offenders". Also, posts telling us this will flop have little value, at least give us some numbers and / or reasoning.

Edited June 26, 2021 by Elessar

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

Wouldn't this further reinforce the correlation between two where more crowd distracted by hbo max free release after buzzy hit in theater run? Like Gvk attracted 3.6m household after its 48.1m opening. Assuming only 10% of the household would have seen GvK in theater if without hbo max, that would represent 360k to 720k potential loss admission (assuming one household contribute one or two people). This in turn translate a loss in box office of 3.6m~7.2m alone during opening weekend. Carry over the effect across the run, it is safe to say that GvK could have earned 10m more in box office without hbo max. And that was with HBO max had fewer subscribers back in late-March, could have grow much bigger by October.    

This makes sense but it also shows that if there's interest, a movie can still be a hit despite 10M shaved off its boxoffice. We'll see.It may not be a massive hit and likely won't be but it shouldn't be a flop.

Edited June 26, 2021 by Valonqar

[Borobudur]

Just now, Valonqar said:

This makes sense but it also shows that if there's interest, a movie can still be a hit despite 10M shaved off its boxoffice. We'll see. I just think that confidence about Dune flopping is misplaced. It may not be a massive hit and likely won't be but it shouldn't be a flop.

As much as I want this movie to be a surprise hit, I share pessimistic view like the rest cause there are just too many factors going against it. See how WB build its buzz after its reception in Venice. But the ideal way to prove hbo max isn't hurting box office is when a movie did well in box office, there is hardly any major uptick in HBO viewership. If both went up, that can only suggest some notable leakage. 

[filmlover]

With expectations already being on the low side for this, that just leaves plenty of room to surprise. One can't always predict what will connect and what won't until the movie is actually out there (which is how shock flops like In the Heights happen).

[Menor the Destroyer]

Dune is way more commercially appealing than Blade Runner. When I was pretty young I read it and was able to enjoy it as purely a sci-fi action novel with nice worldbuilding (though obviously it has more layers than that). 

[Valonqar]

And it did well on TV so not nearly as unaccessible as made out to be. 

 

Chosen One + revenge + romance + war + creatures + beautiful cast + action + exotic worlds, none of this is uncommercial.

 

ITH bomb was a shock only to those who predicted a breakout because they wanted it to be the next CRA or Hamilton even though it never had what it takes to be either. 

[Cmasterclay]

Have always thought Dune was too weird and esoteric to be a big box office hit - was predicting about 140m total before the pandemic and will keep it around there even with the HBO Max release because the Venice/Toronto/Telluride drops indicate some pretty strong confidence in this one. Might end up being a real awards contender!

[lorddemaxus]

We're probably gonna see more of this from other guilds. WB should take Dune out of the day and date slate already