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CaptainJackSparrow

⊃∪∩⪽ | Legendary | October 22 2021 | Denis Villeneuve | Returns to IMAX on December 3

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16 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

Where are these 400m+ WW projections coming from? I know BO Mojo can be slow to update but it's saying it's currently at 241m. Is there really that much gas left in the tank?

Nah, it's not doing $400 mil. Around $265 mil through Thursday.  Probably tapping out around $320 mil.

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15 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Nah, it's not doing $400 mil. Around $265 mil through Thursday.  Probably tapping out around $320 mil.

If so, it makes what Tenet did last year (363) even more impressive in a non-vaccine environment when one thinks about it despite the crap me and others gave Nolan at the time.
 

(Sure “piracy!” but would Dune have made 43 million or more extra if It was theatrical exclusive?)

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3 hours ago, Hatebox said:

Where are these 400m+ WW projections coming from? I know BO Mojo can be slow to update but it's saying it's currently at 241m. Is there really that much gas left in the tank?

Not sure which you refer, but to clarify, I was talking about pre-pandemic adjusted WW for Dune when comparing it to BB.

 

It's about 60% probability that Dune hits 360-380 WW and the rest 40% either a bit downward or upward. Over 400 is about 5% chance max and under 350 less than 10% chance.

 

Australia opens Dec 3rd and Vietnam on New Years? So we'll know the actual at the end of January I guess.

 

Something like dom 105-110 + OS 220-225 + China 40 ~ 370 WW

 

I'm tracking all $1m+ (based on BR2049) markets and some even smaller. The rest I'm using BR2049 as a baseline. Biggest variable is Australia that had $10m for BR2049 but most likely does worse this time due to late opening.

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US - 95-105 million $

China - 40-45 million $

Aus - 10-15 million $

Rest - 215-225 million $

 

Worst case scenario : 360 million $

Best case scenario: 390 million $

 

If it shows some additional legs in the US during the award season and slightly stronger Chinese total - 400 million $ is not impossible.

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I just want to warn about awards legs that they help movies released around the time of awards announcements, not so much movies that are at the end of their run. So December/January when AMPAS, Guilds, Globes (that one is back too oof), BAFTA announce their nominees, movies such as Nightmare Alley and Don't Look Up will get the most of it cause they drop in December. October release such as Dune less so because they lose screens to accommodate new arrivals.

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Evidently the pandemic has shifted some of the BO earnings to Home Entertainment earnings.

Likewise, the day and date release shifted some of further BO earnings to Home Entertainment.

 

To roughly illustrate: if without day and date and pandemic a movie would earn 35% from BO and 65% from various other sources post theater release, a movie which does suffer both part of its audience sitting it out and going to theaters and having another part of the audience that prefer the comfort of a SVOD release - then such movie nowadays can get away with fairly small BO earnings and still be successful. Even if it earns, say, 300 million in theaters, meaning some 140 million of theater rentals, but if those 140 million represent just 25% of its total earnings - then a 560 million of total earnings is nothing to scoff at. Accounting for both production budget, overhead, theater release and marketing, home entertainment release and marketing - it's still likely a 170 million production would in the end be in the red.

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I said this before but WB really should make a deal with IMAX to release this in full frame on blu-ray. Not 1.78 like they've done in the past, but the whole thing. Rewatching a bunch of scenes at home, the added negative space makes a huge difference imo. Considering that the Snyder Cut seemed to do fine, I don't think most people will give a shit about black bars on the side (and I'm personally fond of it if anything honestly). 

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4 hours ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

China - 40-45 million $

 

China is not on track to break 40 million.

So far the earnings have been, in millions USD per days of release:

6.11,  9.11,  6.56 (first weekend)

2.0,   1.6,   1.5,   1.3  (first mon through thursday week)

1,   2.27,   (second weekend).  Sunday is not in yet but judging by past experience it should be around 1.6 million.

 

future days should yield only minimal grosses. Around 0.3 to 0.5 per day. Maybe the saturday of 6th of November could reach 0.7 million or so.

 

And any following week after that will be quite small. Chinese box office simply works that way, for most movies. Drops are huge and everything is frontloaded.

 

Edited by eridani
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3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I said this before but WB really should make a deal with IMAX to release this in full frame on blu-ray. Not 1.78 like they've done in the past, but the whole thing. Rewatching a bunch of scenes at home, the added negative space makes a huge difference imo. Considering that the Snyder Cut seemed to do fine, I don't think most people will give a shit about black bars on the side (and I'm personally fond of it if anything honestly). 

And is there a reason why this couldn't be optional? Especially in streaming? Like choosing subtitles or not.

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1 hour ago, eridani said:

China is not on track to break 40 million.

So far the earnings have been, in millions USD per days of release:

6.11,  9.11,  6.56 (first weekend)

2.0,   1.6,   1.5,   1.3  (first mon through thursday week)

1,   2.27,   (second weekend).  Sunday is not in yet but judging by past experience it should be around 1.6 million.

 

future days should yield only minimal grosses. Around 0.3 to 0.5 per day. Maybe the saturday of 6th of November could reach 0.7 million or so.

 

And any following week after that will be quite small. Chinese box office simply works that way, for most movies. Drops are huge and everything is frontloaded.

 

  

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

Sunday Estimates:

007 No Time To Die : ¥56M (~$8.7M) / ¥183M (~$28.6M) 3D

The Battle At Lake Changjin : ¥40M (~$6.2M) / ¥5500M (~$858.6M) 32D

Dune : ¥12M (~$1.9M) / ¥214M (~$33.4M) 10D

Departures : ¥9.5M (~$1.5M) / ¥23M (~$3.6M) 3D

My Parents, My Homeland : ¥6.5M (~$1M) / ¥1452M (~$226.7M) 32D

 

TBALC ~¥189M away from Wolf Warrior 2 (¥5689M), depending on the weekdays it should reach ¥5535M by Thru & ¥5600M+ by Sun. Things are really getting scary.

 

Yeah, legs were looking okay before this weekend but as you said, the market works differently and their internal algorithms/optimizing took a whole punch of Dune's showings and gave them to the newcomer NTTD which crippled much of Dune and suppressed its weekend which can be seen from those numbers. Around $33.4m now. I don't have much experience projecting that craziness but should get to somewhere around $37.5-40m I guess? Anyhow, $45m looks like a pipedream at this point. Without NTTD this weekend, probably, but not now.

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4 hours ago, eridani said:

Evidently the pandemic has shifted some of the BO earnings to Home Entertainment earnings.

Likewise, the day and date release shifted some of further BO earnings to Home Entertainment.

 

To roughly illustrate: if without day and date and pandemic a movie would earn 35% from BO and 65% from various other sources post theater release, a movie which does suffer both part of its audience sitting it out and going to theaters and having another part of the audience that prefer the comfort of a SVOD release - then such movie nowadays can get away with fairly small BO earnings and still be successful. Even if it earns, say, 300 million in theaters, meaning some 140 million of theater rentals, but if those 140 million represent just 25% of its total earnings - then a 560 million of total earnings is nothing to scoff at. Accounting for both production budget, overhead, theater release and marketing, home entertainment release and marketing - it's still likely a 170 million production would in the end be in the red.

This is something very interesting and would be great to get more understanding to. What were the different streams, ballparks and especially margins for these different income streams pre-pandemic and how it is now changing. Also how much the production budgets reflect true costs and how much they will have incentives coming back during and afterwards in different forms. The old clichee is that after accounting magic all blockbusters end up in red and making loss.

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12 minutes ago, TheDude391 said:

Saw this yesterday afternoon in IMAX again and the audience applauded, only time I've seen that happening after opening weekend. Let's see if they clap the third time around, the main Imax theatre in Toronto kicked out Eternals' first week to play more Dune so I got extra time.

I really hope Dune gets those extra Oscars IMAX showings so that I get to experience it in IMAX when I'm back in the states. Otherwise they might have them in 2023 before Part 2 comes out I guess. I missed the window in my region.

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Quite a nasty 2nd weekend drop and next weekend it probably wont fare any better losing most of its premium screens to Eternals. Should have roughly $80m in the bank after a $6m 3rd weekend. Without some kind of boost hitting $100m will be very difficult...

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31 minutes ago, Elessar said:

Quite a nasty 2nd weekend drop and next weekend it probably wont fare any better losing most of its premium screens to Eternals. Should have roughly $80m in the bank after a $6m 3rd weekend. Without some kind of boost hitting $100m will be very difficult...

I mean, it’s a better drop than most of WB’s other releases this year. 

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3 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

I mean, it’s a better drop than most of WB’s other releases this year. 

 

Sure, considering the circumstances it's doing okay i guess but it having that must-see-on-the-best-possible-screen factor i had hoped it would have held a little bit better. I want it to hit that $100m milestone, dammit!

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