⊃∪∩⪽ | Legendary | October 22 2021 | Denis Villeneuve | Returns to IMAX on December 3

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

All things considered, I think we will have to wait for the final WW numbers to declare this one a hit or a miss.

 

If we put things in perspective, given the huge cast, the big budget, and the nearly unprecedented media push Dune got in this post(?) pandemic era, I can't really see 300-400 Millions WW being labelled as a success. 

Not when FREE GUY can go over 300 WW being a completely original movie (which DUNE isn't), released when the pandemic situation was way worse than what it is now. 

 

If Fast and furious 9 can top 700 mil WW, IF (and that's a big if) Eternals can do even more than that while Bond will soar over 500 mil, then there really is no way DUNE couldn't reach a wider audience.

Yes,  all those titles are coming from big franchises, and most of them were WW theatre exclusive, yet Dune has roughly the same budget (just a bit lower), was a theatre exclusive in many territories and is also part of a popular IP.

 

I would say that anything sub 300 WW actually puts this in a flop/bomb territory. I know I will get hate on this thread for such a statement, but it is what it is. 

300 millions WW would be a decent result for Jungle Cruise, a semi-original IP coming out as a screaming- theatre offer during the heat of Covid's second wave and with most cinemas in EU still shut down or with reduced capacity, but it is an outright flop for this specific time and for Dune.

 

 

Edited October 17, 2021 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[Menor the Destroyer]

Well, that's annoying. That said, I think it has shown enough appeal in Europe so far that a sequel should happen. Surely they will take stuff like this into account. 

[Valonqar]

Dune FlopTalk should have ended with The Last Duel bombing like you wouldn't believe it. Now that's 

 

 

300M global take for Dune would not be considered a bomb. Also, Dune has already made 130M with more markets and dom still to go. 

[AJG]

30 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

I can't wait to spend two weeks watching ten minutes of this on my phone everyday like it's a quibi show. probably during my morning dump.

 

I see. I'm currently watching Dune on the Touch Bar on my MacBook Pro. 

 

The way it was meant to be seen

 

 

Edited October 17, 2021 by AJG

[Starphanluke]

23 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

All things considered, I think we will have to wait for the final WW numbers to declare this one a hit or a miss.

 

If we put things in perspective, given the huge cast, the big budget, and the nearly unprecedented media push Dune got in this post(?) pandemic era, I can't really see 300-400 Millions WW being labelled as a success. 

Not when FREE GUY can go over 300 WW being a completely original movie (which DUNE isn't), released when the pandemic situation was way worse than what it is now. 

 

If Fast and furious 9 can top 700 mil WW, IF (and that's a big if) Eternals can do even more than that while Bond will soar over 500 mil, then there really is no way DUNE couldn't reach a wider audience.

Yes,  all those titles are coming from big franchises, and most of them were WW theatre exclusive, yet Dune has roughly the same budget (just a bit lower), was a theatre exclusive in many territories and is also part of a popular IP.

 

I would say that anything sub 300 WW actually puts this in a flop/bomb territory. I know I will get hate on this thread for such a statement, but it is what it is. 

300 millions WW would be a decent result for Jungle Cruise, a semi-original IP coming out as a screaming- theatre offer during the heat of Covid's second wave and with most cinemas in EU still shut down or with reduced capacity, but it is an outright flop for this specific time and for Dune.

 

 

Lmao $300m WW is not a flop for Dune when it is on HBO Max day one and still in the middle of a global pandemic. It is so much more nuanced than that. You will need to look at streaming numbers, bump in HBO Max subscriptions, etc. in order to get a good idea of true performance. But $300m WW would be a decent result. Maybe not stellar, maybe just okay, but not a flop. 

I still think about $350m is where it ends up.

[lorddemaxus]

26 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

All things considered, I think we will have to wait for the final WW numbers to declare this one a hit or a miss.

 

If we put things in perspective, given the huge cast, the big budget, and the nearly unprecedented media push Dune got in this post(?) pandemic era, I can't really see 300-400 Millions WW being labelled as a success. 

Not when FREE GUY can go over 300 WW being a completely original movie (which DUNE isn't), released when the pandemic situation was way worse than what it is now. 

 

If Fast and furious 9 can top 700 mil WW, IF (and that's a big if) Eternals can do even more than that while Bond will soar over 500 mil, then there really is no way DUNE couldn't reach a wider audience.

Yes,  all those titles are coming from big franchises, and most of them were WW theatre exclusive, yet Dune has roughly the same budget (just a bit lower), was a theatre exclusive in many territories and is also part of a popular IP.

 

I would say that anything sub 300 WW actually puts this in a flop/bomb territory. I know I will get hate on this thread for such a statement, but it is what it is. 

300 millions WW would be a decent result for Jungle Cruise, a semi-original IP coming out as a screaming- theatre offer during the heat of Covid's second wave and with most cinemas in EU still shut down or with reduced capacity, but it is an outright flop for this specific time and for Dune.

Dune will have a Worldwide-C gross higher than Free Guy's Worldwide-C gross and Jungle Cruise's entire gross lmao, the former of which released exclusively in cinemas. 

 

And Jungle Cruise did not come out when most cinemas in Europe were shut-down. It did not gross $300 mil either.

Edited October 17, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Fox20]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Dune will have a Worldwide-C gross higher than Free Guy's Worldwide-C gross and Jungle Cruise's entire gross lmao, the former of which released exclusively in cinemas. 

 

And Jungle Cruise did not come out when most cinemas in Europe were shut-down. It did not gross $300 mil either.

Free Guy is cheaper tho and Jungle Cruise was reported to get its budget cut for the sequel plus it got some PA money.

Edited October 17, 2021 by Fox20

[ThomasNicole]

I doubt it will hurt box office on US, but it will in other markets.

 

Still heading to finish with +300M which the second WB movie to pass that since 2019 (?), so it's a good result overall.

 

And now despite the good numbers overall Villeneuve not only have HBO Max to blame on negotiations for sequel, but also this leak to say this one could be well bigger on box office. Warner is in a way worse position than Villeneuve to negotiate, they really screwed this movie in many ways.

Edited October 17, 2021 by ThomasNicole

[Plain Old Tele]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I doubt it will hurt box office on US, but it will in other markets.

 

Still heading to finish with +300M which the second WB movie to pass that since 2019 (?), so it's a good result overall.

 

And now despite the good numbers overall Villeneuve not only have HBO Max to blame on negotiations for sequel, but also this leak to say this one could be well bigger on box office. Warner is in a way worse position than Villeneuve to negotiate, they really screwed this movie in many ways.

There’s nothing to negotiate, though. Warners can simply say “no” if they want to. 

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

There’s nothing to negotiate, though. Warners can simply say “no” if they want to. 

In the nutshell....

[ThomasNicole]

7 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

There’s nothing to negotiate, though. Warners can simply say “no” if they want to. 

Yeah but this is not happening.

 

They will negotiate and they give Denis lots of arguments because they're stupid.

[AJG]

30 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I doubt it will hurt box office on US, but it will in other markets.

 

Still heading to finish with +300M which the second WB movie to pass that since 2019 (?), so it's a good result overall.

 

And now despite the good numbers overall Villeneuve not only have HBO Max to blame on negotiations for sequel, but also this leak to say this one could be well bigger on box office. Warner is in a way worse position than Villeneuve to negotiate, they really screwed this movie in many ways.

 

I'm honestly thinking $250m with $275m at the high end. I'd be shocked if this hits $300m

 

Edit: looked at the wrong numbers. Im saying $275m to $300m. $325m max.

Edited October 17, 2021 by AJG

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Dune will have a Worldwide-C gross higher than Free Guy's Worldwide-C gross and Jungle Cruise's entire gross lmao, the former of which released exclusively in cinemas. 

 

And Jungle Cruise did not come out when most cinemas in Europe were shut-down. It did not gross $300 mil either.

 

I know, that's why I said "300 millions WW would be a decent result for Jungle Cruise". 

 

@Valonqar As for The Last Duel, I'm sad that it is bombing (I loved it) but I don't see how one could  compare that to Dune... The last Duel is an historical epic based on real events and aimed at an older audience, Dune is the movie remake of a beloved SCI-FI novel that is trying to bring teens to the cinema (Chalamet and Zendaya being promoted front and center, despite the latter having basically a cameo) and mainly appeals to the Star Wars fans. 

If anything, I would rather compare its target demo with Venom's, as in slightly older than the usual cinecomic but still mostly young male nerds.

 

Edited October 17, 2021 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[Valonqar]

22 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

 

I know, that's why I said "300 millions WW would be a decent result for Jungle Cruise". 

 

@Valonqar As for The Last Duel, I'm sad that it is bombing (I loved it) but I don't see how one could  compare that to Dune... The last Duel is an historical epic based on real events and aimed at an older audience, Dune is the movie remake of a beloved SCI-FI novel that is trying to bring teens to the cinema (Chalamet and Zendaya being promoted front and center, despite the latter having basically a cameo) and mainly appeals to the Star Wars fans. 

If anything, I would rather compare its target demo with Venom's, as in slightly older than the usual cinecomic but still mostly young male nerds.

 

 

I'm just saying that The Last Duel bombing is real bombing even for pandemic standards, so talking about Dune bombing now that it has 130M in the can is a bit disingenuous. 

 

Also, while The Last Duel wasn't based on a source (aka built-in fandom) it had some proven star power in front and behind the camera (Damon, Affleck, Scott) and action. So it wasn't a poor little movie than couldn't. Also, it wasn't even an arthouse movies for specific crowd to understand why it did so poorly. Yet even The Green Knight (another Medieval but far more artsy movie) opened almost 2M better. Both are bombs but considering The Green Knight's only draw was A24 that makes The Last Duel a really unprecedented bomb in a long time. But it made more than The Green Knight OS already, 4.2M vs Knight's 1.9M lifetime OS. 

Edited October 17, 2021 by Valonqar

[Ronin46]

The Dune thing is weird. Not sure why so many have agendas on here about it. Maybe its Denny comments about Marvel and people wanting to see it fail or maybe something else.

 

Its not going to succeed. It has no chance. To succeed it need to pass the following steps.

 

Do better than GvK 3 day- likely

Do beter than JC WW - likely

Do better than Free Guy WW - maybe

 

Then we can throw in budget, we can inflate the budget and then add 600m for marketing and show it failed.

 

If that fails we can use a few small franchises and go with

 

Do better than Lord of the Rings  

Do better than Star Wars

 

Its going to have to cure world hunger and  completely eliminate covid for it to be a success with some on here.

 

That said sales have stalled. There are copies for download available and it might be very frontloaded and PLF heavy in the first couple of days and drop like a stone with HBO max. 

 

I hope it does well. I like the director and I like scifi/fantasy type films with scope and ambition. I think it will struggle to get to 100M domestic at this rate. Hopefully it ramps up in the next few days. If it does not there will be a feast on its carcass.  

 

[Plain Old Tele]

 

[Napoleon]

Any confirmation on where this leak came from? It would make sense for it to be from HBO Max considering it's the only digital platform that's getting it in the coming days, unless this is already getting a digital release in some European country where it opened in theaters a month ago. But why would any digital platform anywhere in the world have the movie this early? Other theatrical releases could be in danger of leaking the same way, then.

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, Napoleon said:

Any confirmation on where this leak came from? It would make sense for it to be from HBO Max considering it's the only digital platform that's getting it in the coming days, unless this is already getting a digital release in some European country where it opened in theaters a month ago. But why would any digital platform anywhere in the world have the movie this early? Other theatrical releases could be in danger of leaking the same way, then.

It’s from some overseas outlet (or a post house producing elements for them). 
 

25fps is the frame rate used for TV video content in the UK and any other countries that use a 50Hz power standard, such as Germany, Australia and the United Arab Emirates.

[AJG]

2 hours ago, Napoleon said:

Any confirmation on where this leak came from? It would make sense for it to be from HBO Max considering it's the only digital platform that's getting it in the coming days, unless this is already getting a digital release in some European country where it opened in theaters a month ago. But why would any digital platform anywhere in the world have the movie this early? Other theatrical releases could be in danger of leaking the same way, then.

It’s a European leak. Im guessing it’s either from a premium streaming or pay-per-view service tied to cable or satellite TV provider thus explaining the 25fps PAL frame rate (Everything on Sky is still 25p/50p, same goes for their streamer Now TV). iTunes and Amazon are all still 24p over here.

 

Something similar happened with the Demon Slayer movie. It was accidentally released onto the PlayStation store during its theatrical run.

 

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was accidentally uploaded to YouTube by Sony.
 

These things happen.

 

Edited October 18, 2021 by AJG

[Hatebox]

Finished the first 'book' (ie. where the movie apparently stops). I assume the film adds quite a bit of set-pieces or overlaps with the next part quite a bit as it's almost all table-setting up until now. Well-written table-setting, but still...