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CaptainJackSparrow

⊃∪∩⪽ | Legendary | October 22 2021 | Denis Villeneuve | Returns to IMAX on December 3

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2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Many properties that aren't GA household names crossover to GA.

 

As for older readers, that's not true for I'm a teenager and it's one of my favorite books. Also, the cast has a Chalamet, Zendaya and Momoa who are popular with teens. 

Momoa is popular with moms

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:rolleyes:  Dune is a classic. I've never heard of Goldfinch until I saw the thread here. Either way, Dune is more accessible than Goldfinch. Yes, I know that was a bait and I took it consciously. 

 

Momoa being a hit with moms is even better for Dune. Moms = movie legs. Also see LOTR and Gladiator.

 

 

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3 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

Dune is one of the best-selling science-fiction books of all-time but the fanbase is older, the movie won't necessarily "explode" on social media. There is a lot of potential if Chalamet and Isaac don't doom the project. Not to mention Villeneuve's lack of mainstream appeal, so far at least, but hopefully he has learned something from the fantastic BR2049 failure at the box office. Momoa is hot at the moment and would be involved if sequels happen, so he should get a more prominent role than in the novel.

Super old fan base. Book came out 55 years ago

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Popularity of the book is not a factor. Goldfinch is just a "best seller" the book sales are probably insignificant. And Dune has sold 20 mil. over 5 decades. It's not like a hot hit of the moment that everyone has read over the last 5 years. GA will decide in the end.

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7 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Moms will show up for Momoa

Teens will show up for Timdeya

Geeks will show up for based Dennis visual porn

Dune readers will show up for Dune

GA will show up for it's Xmas and they watch big epics on Xmas

 

Boom over 1 billion. 

 

150m OW

500m DOM

 

Confirmed!

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2 minutes ago, JWR said:

I'm pretty sure Warner Bros would view anything above $400-500m successful for a movie like this.

Yeah, that's why they invested so much money into the production right? For a sub-$500m global gross?

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54 minutes ago, Joel M said:

Popularity of the book is not a factor. Goldfinch is just a "best seller" the book sales are probably insignificant.

I did an opening weekend chart / book sales ratio chart at one time and tried to predict Inferno OW with it considering the drops and it got really close. Studio do pay good price for book sales stats by markets and their update ramping up to the release.

That said yes it must be more relevant for a Girl on a Train than for a book (good example of the quite mediocre movie doing really well because of the book sales) from a long time ago and it is a bit more complicated than some 1:1 affair (or bible based book would beat the avengers)

 

Domestic Book sales / OW, Ratio

 

DaVinci Code: 25M / 77M, 3.08x

A&D: 15M  / 46M, 3.066x

Inferno: 6M / 15M, 2.5x

 

Between popular YA adult title the ratio tended to be in the same ball parks as well, if you have nice comparables, book sales (and the book sales T-90 days of release) are probably not a bad reference. 

 

 

 

Edited by Barnack
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1 minute ago, TMP said:

Yeah, that's why they invested so much money into the production right? For a sub-$500m global gross?

Okay, fine. $600-800m. Maybe that should be a better target for this movie to reach. My point was that Warner Bros probably isn't expecting it to make over $1 billion, nor should they.

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