Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Moana - 55.5/81.1M; Fantastic Beasts - 45.1M; Doctor Strange - 13.4M; Allied - 13/18M; Arrival - 11.3M; Trolls - 10.3M; Bad Santa 2 - 6.1/9M

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I next expect him to predict that Collateral Beauty will make more than Rogue One.

 

On 11/17/2016 at 7:31 AM, SteveJaros said:

Big-time IN ... R1 will do about $200m DOM. 

 

 

 

[La Binoche]

Moana is missing the snowy winter theme that made Frozen even more appealing for the holidays. 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

 

 

 

 

What.  The.  Fuck.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

 

 

 

[That One Girl]

[mahnamahna]

17 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

Beasts is quietly having a VERY strong second week. It's been powerful Monday-Tuesday, and will surge this weekend to over $60m for the five Thanksgiving days. 

 

It's going to be WAY ahead of Moana as of this Monday, too far ahead for Moana to realistically approach. Just watch. Beast will beat Moana handily (DOM). 

 

 

You do realize FB will drop 60-70% next weekend, right?  add another 60-70% drop against Rogue One and FB will likely finish with $210-220 million DOM (respectable considering OS numbers will likely be $500-650 million).

 

Moana will hold slightly better next weekend and likely leg its way into the New Year despite Sing opening. 

 

Moana - $255 million 

Doctor Strange - $230 million

Fantastic Beasts - $220 million

Trolls - $160 million 

Arrival - $105 million 

 

That's what the top 5 for Nov. 2016 is looking like so far. 

Edited November 24, 2016 by mahnamahna

[ban1o]

3 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Moana is missing the snowy winter theme that made Frozen even more appealing for the holidays. 

this I never thought it could e big. Frozen had the winter theme that really helped it during the holidays. Moana doesn't have that. 

[filmlover]

We need Judge Judy to set this guy straight.

 

[Jake Gittes]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

 

 

 

 

And Collateral Beauty will match The Pursuit of Happyness adjusted! Boom. 

[That One Girl]

Well, looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

18 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Dude, even if it misses Frozen's 5-day by a small margin, it'll still outopen Fantastic Beasts. Hell, it could come close to matching Beasts' OW in its FSS span. And WOM is absurd good, and it's an animation, an original one. Your ridiculous anti-Disney predictions never go right. Beasts is the one that will be lucky to stop at 220M DOM.

 

This. Pretty much.

[La Binoche]

While you wait for more #s, here is the LA Times' review of King Verhoeven's ELLE 

 

 

[mahnamahna]

7 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Can I have what you're smoking?  Moana is an animated movie, so it'll have a better post-Thanksgiving drop, but Beasts will drop a lot harder than Moana next weekend.  Moana has until Sing, but Beasts has until Rogue One, 5 days for Moana to catch up a bit.  Even then, Moana should still have some decent late legs.

 

Based on Tangled, Moana has until after MLK weekend, really. If Sing and Rogue One end up selling out, this could help Moana as an alternative for families during Christmas/New Years. 

 

 

[MCKillswitch123]

5 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

Beasts is quietly having a VERY strong second week. It's been powerful Monday-Tuesday, and will surge this weekend to over $60m for the five Thanksgiving days. 

 

It's going to be WAY ahead of Moana as of this Monday, too far ahead for Moana to realistically approach. Just watch. Beast will beat Moana handily (DOM). 

 

Dude, Mockingjay Part 2 had a MUCH bigger OW than Fantastic Beasts (which is following MJ2 pretty closely legs-wise, hence why I made the comparision), and that stopped at 281M. W/an 80M+-90M+ 5-day opening, Moana is set to cross 300M because, once again, it's a DISNEY CRAFTED ORIGINAL ANIMATION W/SUPER STRONG WOM. Original animations in general always have pretty solid legs, and a good one made by Disney does 3x the usual. Remember Zootopia earlier this year? Yeah, now put a hologram of that movie and slap a Samoan princess in it. That's Moana.

 

And before ANYONE says it, Sing only opens a month from now, so no, it's not going to be the Pets to Moana's Dory. Moana will have already made a ballistic amount of money by the time we get to Sing. And there's always double feature potential w/Rogue One.

[druv10]

17 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

Beasts is quietly having a VERY strong second week. It's been powerful Monday-Tuesday, and will surge this weekend to over $60m for the five Thanksgiving days. 

 

It's going to be WAY ahead of Moana as of this Monday, too far ahead for Moana to realistically approach. Just watch. Beast will beat Moana handily (DOM). 

[CJohn]

Is that a good number for Beasts? Doesn't seem all that great.

 

I am on the intermission of Nocturnal Animals. So far so good.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

22 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

A 2.75x from the 5-day?  After its fantastic reviews?  And it's an animated movie?  What the fuck are you smoking?

 

Steve is pretty much the ultimate-No logic kind of guy, who picks on anything related to Disney.

 

No wonder why his clubs fail and fail bigtime.

[mahnamahna]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Dude, Mockingjay Part 2 had a MUCH bigger OW than Fantastic Beasts (which is following MJ2 pretty closely legs-wise, hence why I made the comparision), and that stopped at 281M. W/an 80M+-90M+ 5-day opening, Moana is set to cross 300M because, once again, it's a DISNEY CRAFTED ORIGINAL ANIMATION W/SUPER STRONG WOM. Original animations in general always have pretty solid legs, and a good one made by Disney does 3x the usual. Remember Zootopia earlier this year? Yeah, now put a hologram of that movie and slap a Samoan princess in it. That's Moana.

 

And before ANYONE says it, Sing only opens a month from now, so no, it's not going to be the Pets to Moana's Dory. Moana will have already made a ballistic amount of money by the time we get to Sing. And there's always double feature potential w/Rogue One.

1

I wouldn't say Moana is locked to cross $300 million DOM yet. It'd need some excellent holds the first three weekends of December to do $300 million+ DOM with typical Thanksgiving legs and Sing opening up Dec 21. 

 

Even if Sing doesn't do Pets numbers, $200 million+ DOM should happen with minimal kid competition and solid buzz. 

 

[Jake Gittes]

To be fair Tangled had less than a 3x from its 5-day OW, and that excellent legs of its own and very little actual holiday competition, especially compared to what Moana is about to face. So with a $90m five-day it's entirely possible Moana tops out at 250. But it'll be safely ahead of FB no matter what. 

Edited November 24, 2016 by Jake Gittes

[acab]

6 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

While you wait for more #s, here is the LA Times' review of King Verhoeven's ELLE 

 

 

This movie is incredible. Not for everyone but it's easily my favourite of 2016 so far.

I obviously haven't seen most of this year's Oscar contenders but i strongly doubt anyone can match Isabelle Huppert's tour de force performance.