Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Moana - 55.5/81.1M; Fantastic Beasts - 45.1M; Doctor Strange - 13.4M; Allied - 13/18M; Arrival - 11.3M; Trolls - 10.3M; Bad Santa 2 - 6.1/9M

[grey ghost]

5 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

When will we know the Saturday numbers??

 

In about 3 hours when official weekend estimates come out.

[baumer]

If RTH or Nile dont give us numbers we have to wait for official estimates.

[MattW]

32 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

But you are arbitrarily deciding what a movie is getting if you are using three times the budget. How can you possibly know what a film studio actually gets from each film? You don't know what they get in Germany or what they get in Luxembourg or what they get in Brazil or what they get from Russia and so on and so on. You have the 25% figure from China but that's not even accurate because every film is different. For example I read that Transformers is basically a 40% return in China back to the studios. So unless you have absolute facts where you are privy to a budget sheet that shows exactly what percentage is coming back we have used the two times the budget for 20 years. I don't see why that would change now simply because we don't have the facts in front of us.

http://deadline.com/2010/07/studio-shame-even-harry-potter-pic-loses-money-because-of-warner-bros-phony-baloney-accounting-51886/

Unless I'm completely misreading this, WB's public statement on order of the Phoenix showed 55.5% domestic and 46% overseas (even including $20m from china). Either that's the true value or lower than the true value, certainly not higher. So I think 55/45/25 is fine as a rule of thumb (Deadline's 50/39/25 for their yearly profitability calculation seems too stingy to me).

[baumer]

55 45 seams reasonable.

[Ash Skywalker]

I predicted 61 39 ?

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, IMojammer said:

heir yearly profitability calculation seems too stingy to me).

I wholeheartedly agree to that (the rest too)

I think people tend too strongly to equal conditions / situations, they vary too strongly, hence the reason I am not happy about those charts. As I have seen them the first time I was so happy, as I took only a glance at the details then, it needed someone here pointing out the regularity of the numbers a short time later, those being only calculated. ~ Stingy and way too absolute

 

[Poseidon]

If Nile and RTH won't give us numbers, we build them ourselves. And we let them pay for it!

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

 And we let them pay for it!

Do we pay them when they do deliver them?

[YM!]

11 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

If Nile and RTH won't give us numbers, we build them ourselves. And we let them pay for it!

What if they don't want to pay!?

[kswiston]

30 minutes ago, IMojammer said:

http://deadline.com/2010/07/studio-shame-even-harry-potter-pic-loses-money-because-of-warner-bros-phony-baloney-accounting-51886/

Unless I'm completely misreading this, WB's public statement on order of the Phoenix showed 55.5% domestic and 46% overseas (even including $20m from china). Either that's the true value or lower than the true value, certainly not higher. So I think 55/45/25 is fine as a rule of thumb (Deadline's 50/39/25 for their yearly profitability calculation seems too stingy to me).

 

Some of it is going to depend on territory breakdown. potter and Star Wars are huge in your more established western Europe and Anglo territories. I would assume those territories have a better studio cut than Asia or Latin America (where the superhero films shine). Especially back in 2007 when OotP was playing.

 

I usually just use 55/40/25 as a baseline. better to be conservative than overestimate. Not that it matters a ton, since studios take home market and licensing into account when they budget a film. If a big film triples its production  budget worldwide, it's a success. if a film at least doubles its budget worldwide, it will probably make money at some point in the coming years.

 

Granted, A Warcraft case where domestic is under 15% of the total, and more than half the gross is from China is a bit of an exception.

Edited November 27, 2016 by kswiston

[That One Girl]

The way I see it:

 

-Below a 2x its budget = low chance of profitability, almost no chance of sequel unless it explodes on HV.

-2x its budget to 2.5x its budget = better chance of being profitable in the long run, a sequel may be considered depending on a number of factors.

-2.5x its budget to 3x its budget = very good chance of profitability overall, a sequel is a likely endeavor.

-3x its budget and above = pretty much confirmed to be profitable, a sequel is almost guaranteed.

[Poseidon]

Were there any numbers for Manchester By The Sea yesterday? 

[La Binoche]

10 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Were there any numbers for Manchester By The Sea yesterday? 

 

Forbes: 

 

Speaking of Oscars, Manchester By the Sea expanded to 48 theaters this weekend and earned around $450k (+519%) on Friday. That means the Roadside Attractions release should make around $1.29 million (+403%) this weekend for a terrific $47.6k per-location-average and a new $1.692m cume.

[EmpireCity]

21.4 and 17.2

Edited November 27, 2016 by EmpireCity

[chrisman0606]

4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

21.4 and 17.2

What are those numbers for?

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, chrisman0606 said:

What are those numbers for?

 

Lol.  

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, chrisman0606 said:

What are those numbers for?

Rules Don't Apply and Bleed for This, of course.

[Heretic]

Sub 10% drop for FB. Another excellent number. Heading for around 44m 3 day. 

[La Binoche]

 ‏@BoxOffice  30s30 seconds ago

MOONLIGHT makes an estimated $1.30M weekend, down 12.6%, for $8.62M total through six weekends. #Moonlight

[yjs]

almost as expected or a little better for Moana and again, fantastic for FB.