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Wrath

BOT User Tracking 11/2-11/4 Incarnate

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Boom. Caught back up (didn't catch the weeks I missed entirely, just the ones where I asked for predicts), post will be up shortly. I'm sad about missing some good weeks, but better late than never. At least I'm back in time for a really... umm, brief weekend of releases.

 

Well, always a good idea to start out slow. Otherwise, might pull something.

 

Please provide your 11/2 - 11/4 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

 

Incarnate

 

Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

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Back up and running. 7 total predicts, which is about what you'd expect for a weekend almost completely void of new releases. 28.42% Ratio (which is the ratio between our median predict and the standard deviation of our predicts, its sort of a measure of how confident we are in our prediction. The lower it is, the narrower the range of our predicts, and the bigger it is, the wider that range) is pretty low for something this small, usually its more like 35-40%. Miss Peregrine was 26.71% and the ratio typically shrinks as the expected BO rises (Suicide Squad, for example was 12.44%). 

 

Incarnate

Mean: 2.4M

Median: 2.5M

StnDev: 0.71M (revised StnDev: 0.71M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 28.42%

High: 3.2M

Low: 1.3M

 

BO.com 2.5M

Deadline 4M

MovieWeb 1.6M

ShowBuzzDaily 

Variety 4.5M

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Incarnate

Prediction: 2.5M +/-0.71M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 2.66M (off by 0.2M, so 0.23 stndev)

Nice job! Darn good predict! And we tied with BO.com for the best predict among the sites, too. Clearly the long layoff was put to good analytical use. Closest predict was me at 2.8M.

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