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eXtacy

Monday Numbers: Moana/FB 2.3-2.2m (Asgard)

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35 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

 

RTH gave us two numbers but did not specify what each one is.

 

For reference

Frozen first Monday was 2.50

Doctor Strange 2nd Monday was 2.64

Legs are kicking in for Moana. It has held better than Frozen over the last 3 days.

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13 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Legs are kicking in for Moana. It has held better than Frozen over the last 3 days.

Toy Story had a better first Monday post thanksgiving and managed a good -51% drop on its second weekend and without competition it grossed 245M. Unless Moana manages to pick a sub 50% drop next week and with Sing coming on Christmas, I think 230M is the high bar now!!!!!

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7 minutes ago, Finnick said:

 

Toy Story had a better first Monday post thanksgiving and managed a good -51% drop on its second weekend and without competition it grossed 245M. Unless Moana manages to pick a sub 50% drop next week and with Sing coming on Christmas, I think 230M is the high bar now!!!!!

 

You cannot compare something that opened over 20 years ago. Box Office daily numbers are just too different.

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16 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

 

You cannot compare something that opened over 20 years ago. Box Office daily numbers are just too different.

 

You also can't use Frozen and say this will have the same kind of legs.

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7 minutes ago, James said:

And maybe, just maybe, that 2.3m is for FB and not for Moana:P

I honestly think it's more likely.  That gives FB a -75.9% drop from Sunday and $2.2M for Moana means -83.7% drop. sounds plausible.

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1 hour ago, Finnick said:

 

Toy Story had a better first Monday post thanksgiving and managed a good -51% drop on its second weekend and without competition it grossed 245M. Unless Moana manages to pick a sub 50% drop next week and with Sing coming on Christmas, I think 230M is the high bar now!!!!!

not too soon, $230M, that would take a lower multi than Tangled's and Tangled faced some holiday competitions. staying power comes from the good WOM, having competitions or not, and Moana has it. TS2 also had Stuart Little, of which gross is adjusted to $230M

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as far as I know no one here ever said or believed that Moana will have Frozen's legs, or anything remotely similar to it. Fans are hopefuls but not lunatics.

Besides, comparing the daily drops between the two movies at this point doesn't look too blasphemous. Frozen performed quite normally as a holiday family film at least till mid-December.

This Monday's result for example: -83.5% drop for Frozen and either -83% or -83.7% for Moana. The juxtaposition seems fair enough. 

It's not like Moana fans will cry over for Moana not having a $350M total or the Frozen-esque +45% surge during the Christmas season.

 

Think it's been a pattern for quite a while. I'm not even playing the victim or anything, it's just an observation that I've had for the past three years. Disney fans go all optimistic and try to be supportive then other users get somewhat lowkey repulsed by it and calling it naive and illogical. It happened with pre-Christmas Frozen, it happened with pre-Easter Zootopia, and now it seems to be happening again with Moana. It feels all familiar. ("you are delusional if you think Frozen will get to $300M, it takes crazy legs and the Hobbit will soon crush it"/ "Zootopia will never reach $300M with that OW, BvS and TJB will destroy it and March dailies are just way too low") Although to be fair, I do realize it happens all the time on BOT with any kinda movies not just Disney, (SS and FB's first week in the recent memories) but I do feel Moana fans seem to face a fair amount of discouragement on BOT with all these "how dare you even mention the holy name of Frozen" or "you should know your place since you are just a filler before the real deals R1 and Sing arrive" ? 

Edited by yjs
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7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Rogue one will take the juice out of all the holdovers. Tangled did not face anything like it. And Sing week after that is a Huge release as well. Sing will do more than 230m for sure. If you adjust stuart little, how big was tangled. I am assuming it opened bigger than Moana adjusted?

Tangled 5-day OW/total adjusted: $74.1M/$216.7M 

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12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Rogue one will take the juice out of all the holdovers. Tangled did not face anything like it. And Sing week after that is a Huge release as well. Sing will do more than 230m for sure. If you adjust stuart little, how big was tangled. I am assuming it opened bigger than Moana adjusted?

Avatar, Sherlock Holmes and Alvin coexisted just fine. And I don't think R1 will be as big as Avatar. 

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3 minutes ago, yjs said:

Avatar, Sherlock Holmes and Alvin coexisted just fine. And I don't think R1 will be as big as Avatar. 

 

Rogue one will open way bigger than Avatar. Both Sherlock and Alvin opened AFTER avatar during christmas which expands to accomodate new releases. But during R1 release weekend holdovers will tank for sure.

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11 minutes ago, yjs said:

Avatar, Sherlock Holmes and Alvin coexisted just fine. And I don't think R1 will be as big as Avatar. 

I think the biggest disadvantage of Moana is music. Although good, nothing feels like Frozen. I have seen far better animations than Frozen and so have done a lot of people. What gave Frozen such longetivity was the soundtrack..I mean Let it go alone must have added $200m to this..

Edit: Also another obvious con is that it is a summer movie released in December. No one wants to see a tropical movie in Xmas. Frozen really fitted with the xmas atmosphere unlike Moana

Edited by FantasticBeasts
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7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Rogue one will open way bigger than Avatar. Both Sherlock and Alvin opened AFTER avatar during christmas which expands to accomodate new releases. But during R1 release weekend holdovers will tank for sure.

Zootopia fell -35% against BvS's $166M OW. The Croods fell -37.5% agains Iron Man 3's $175M OW. TJB fell -44% against Civil War's $180M OW.. 

Tangled without any monster debuts like those fell -38.8% on the 4th week. so if Moana manages around -40% drop on its week 4, I think it's fine.

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6 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I think the biggest disadvantage of Moana is music. Although good, nothing feels like Frozen. I have seen far better animations than Frozen and so have done a lot of people. What gave Frozen such longetivity was the soundtrack..I mean Let it go alone must have added $200m to this..

yeah but the thing is, it's not really a "disadvantage" to Moana's run, it was more like a huge unexpected advantage to the Frozen's run, and no one here expects Moana to be another Frozen, so...

 

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1 minute ago, yjs said:

yeah but the thing is, it's not really a "disadvantage" to Moana's run, it was more like a huge unexpected advantage to the Frozen's run, and no one here expects Moana to be another Frozen, so...

 

Well I call this a fator for this not going to pull a Frozen. Also see the edit that I did on what is another big con.

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