BOT User Tracking 11/16-11/18 Collateral Damage, Manchester by the Sea (wide), Rogue One

[Wrath]

This will continue to make things right.

 

In a way its a shame. A pair of other well regarded movies are either opening or going wide this weekend and they deserve a better fate than box-office road kill. Not that they'll necessarily do badly on their own terms, and it'll be interesting to see how well they do as counter programming. But for purposes of opening weekend box office, this weekend is all about Star Wars.

 

Here we go.

 

Please provide your 11/16 - 11/18 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

 

Collateral Damage

Manchester by the Sea (wide)

Rogue One

 

Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

Edited December 12, 2016 by Wrath

[Alli]

Collateral Beauty 15M

Rogue One  146m

[WrathOfHan]

Rogue One: 200M
Collateral: 10M

Manchester: 8M

[Alli]

On 12/12/2016 at 5:27 PM, Alli said:

Collateral Beauty 15M

Rogue One  146m

I changed my mind about CB

 

I say CB 12M

RO stay the same for now. I hope i'm not overpredicting it. People here hyped it to high heaven

[Eevin]

Rogue One: $171m

Collateral Beauty: $4m

Manchester by the Sea: $8m

 

Confident that Collateral Beauty will be a disaster thanks to reviews.

 

Edited December 14, 2016 by Eevin

[Alli]

4 minutes ago, Eevin said:

Rogue One: $157m

Collateral Beauty: $4m

Manchester by the Sea: $8m

 

Confident that Collateral Beauty will be a disaster thanks to reviews.

 

The tourist opened to 16M though and it had the same toxic reviews.

[DAJK]

Rogue One - $163.4M

Collateral Beauty - $12.1M

Manchester - $6.7M

[MCKillswitch123]

Collateral Beauty - 249M

Manchester By The Sea - 8M

Rogue One - 999.999K

 

 

Spoiler

RO - 157M

MBTS - 8M

CB - 5M

 

Edited December 13, 2016 by MCKillswitch123

[Eevin]

53 minutes ago, Alli said:

The tourist opened to 16M though and it had the same toxic reviews.

The Tourist wasn't going up against a potential $150m+ opener and another extremely well-liked Oscar-bait pic coming out of limited release.

[filmlover]

I didn't know that dumb Ahnuld action movie from 14 years ago was getting re-released.

[Alli]

Trackers and distributors at Warner Bros. have the holiday drama “Collateral Beauty” opening to more than $12 million, set to screen in more than 2,000 locations.

 

RO between 120-150M

 

http://www.thewrap.com/rogue-one-a-star-wars-story-box-office-300-million-global-debut-open/

[Blankments]

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 161.232M
Collateral Beauty - 13.442M
Manchester by the Sea - 7.651M
 

[Wrath]

12 hours ago, Alli said:

I changed my mind about CB

 

I say CB 12M

RO stay the same for now. I hope i'm not overpredicting it. People here hyped it to high heaven

 

No problem. Changing predicts is totally fine as long as its before the deadline.

 

And... yeah, I thought CB had a little bit of buzz building for it. Now it kinda has "crater" written all over it.

Edited December 14, 2016 by Wrath

[Wrath]

Collateral Damage 9.8M

Manchester by the Sea (wide) 6.5M

Rogue One 168M

[Wrath]

It has arrived. Gird your loins.

 

Yes, that Ratio is correct for Collateral Beauty as someone predicted it would open to $40m. Rogue One's ratio is bit higher than you'd expect from an opener of that size because of that $80M OW predict. Obviously a single major outlier doesn't move the median very much, but it really can move the StnDev significantly and thus the ratio.

 

I suppose that's a backdoor way of making our predicts look a LOT better going into the future, though out of a couple hundred movies predicted in this fashion this is only the 2nd or 3rd time I can recall it getting nudged in a serious way like this. If for some reason it starts becoming a thing, I'll come up with a way to deal with it.

 

Overall, it looks like we're very slightly pessimistic on Collateral Beauty, and very slightly optimistic on Manchester by the Sea and Rogue One, though in all 3 cases our median predict is right in the mix with everyone else.

 

Collateral Beauty

Mean: 13.4M

Median: 11M

StnDev: 9.5M (revised StnDev: 9.11M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 86.40%

High: 40M

Low: 4M

 

BO.com 10M

Deadline 11.25M

MovieWeb 12.6M

ShowBuzzDaily 

Variety 12.5M

 

Manchester by the Sea (wide)

Mean: 7.2M

Median: 7.3255M

StnDev: 0.91M (revised StnDev: 0.91M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 12.41%

High: 8M

Low: 5.5M

 

BO.com 5M

Deadline 6M

MovieWeb 7.2M

ShowBuzzDaily 

Variety 

 

Rogue One

Mean: 159.3M

Median: 162.316M

StnDev: 33.74M (revised StnDev: 33.59M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 20.79%

High: 200M

Low: 85M

 

BO.com 155M

Deadline 141M

MovieWeb 145.6M

ShowBuzzDaily 

Variety 135M

[Wrath]

Collateral Beauty

Prediction: 11.0M +/- 9.5M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 7.1M (off by 3.9M, so 0.41 stndev)

Well, um, that's ONE way to get a decent predict. One predictor guessed 40M, which had a minimal effect on the median but gave us a gigantic stndev. Normally, our stndev on an opening expected to be around this level would be, very roughly, about 25-30% of our predicted open. So, maybe 3M. That would have made our miss equal to about 1.3 stndev which would rank as bad but not completely awful. A 0.41, on the other hand, counts as a pretty solid predict. If this kind of thing pops up again I may step in. On the bright side, all the other prediction sits were pretty close to us so everyone was off by a lot. Best predict was by MCKillswitch123 at 5M.

Manchester by the Sea

Prediction: 7.32M +/- 0.91M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 4.22M (off by 3.1M, so 3.42 stndev)

Gah. Wrong by a lot, AND our predicts were tightly clustered so our Stndev was super small. Just disastrously bad. Most other folks were bad, too, except BO.com who guessed 5m Best predict was by mahnamahna at 5.5M.

Rogue One

Prediction: 162.32M +/- 33.74M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 155.08M (off by 7.2M, so 0.21 stndev)

Nice predict. Blockbusters tend to be a little easier to predict in terms of stndev, but this was still a solid result. BO.com nailed it perfect at 155M, but we were the second best. Best predict was again by MCKillswitch123 at 157M. Good week for MCKillswitch123.