ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Stop using logic

 

Let the hate flow through them...

 

Feel it 

feel it! 

It just frustrates me that people don't understand the reason why the holidays lead to good legs... A lot of that is because is that the weekdays are super-powered.

[La Binoche]

A shame about Arrival's drop, but the holidays should put enough gas in its tank for it to make the $13.5M it needs to join the century club. 

I always wanted to say "century club." 

[babz06]

26 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm genuinely dumbstruck how some can think 3.5x is even remotely realistic for R1. I guess people still don't get what kind of movie TFA was, despite R1 already clearly showing it's no TFA. 

It'll probably do between 3.3x or 3.4x multiple

[IronJimbo]

23 minutes ago, Rallax said:

 

Have you been correct about anything regarding R1 yet?  Just curious.

 

Translation: I have no argument

[MrPink]

3 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

It just frustrates me that people don't understand the reason why the holidays lead to good legs... A lot of that is because is that the weekdays are super-powered.

 

Super-powahed.

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Translation: I have no argument

 

Who me?

[Jandrew]

11 minutes ago, jandrew said:

Empire Strikes Back is on TNT. Easily my favorite one period.

 

When commercials come on, there is a ticker at the bottom of the screen that counts down till the break is over.

 

I dont remember TNT doing this for Nolan @MrPink

[MrPink]

Just now, jandrew said:

 

When commercials come on, there is a ticker at the bottom of the screen that counts down till the break is over.

 

I dont remember TNT doing this for Nolan @MrPink

 

They may have when TNT initially debuted the Dark Knight 

 

It's been nearly 6 years though and hundreds of airings since then 

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Rallax said:

 

Who me?

 

hw64's posts are entirely reasonable yet you belittle hw64 with your little "like" crew.

 

BTW! I predicted 150OW so is my opinion more valid now?

Edited December 18, 2016 by IronJimbo

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

 

Looking back the last 7 yrs, every big blockbuster that was released the week before or week of Christmas and was popular made at least a 3.1X multiple over its run. That includes the Hobbit films, it includes films like MI:Protocol and Tron Legacy. alot of them made a 3.5x or better.

 

if it is liked, it is almost impossible for a tent pole type release in December not to make over a 3 multiple.

 

right now i don't see any reason that R1 won't make a 3X multiple, though time will tell. A 3.5 multiple wouldn't surprise me in the least though it will be more difficult.  

 

on Moana, I have it making around 240 give or take 5M. It is tracking pretty close to Tangled +20%.

 

 

I think a 3x multi is most likely. I won't be surprised if it goes as low as 2.9x, but I would be surprised if it went any lower. 

[Lordmandeep]

People can hope without logic to think it collapses over the Holidays, but I called Sat and Sunday numbers...

 

 So I am pretty confident on the future. 

 

This will at a minimum make 60 million in weekdays then another 115 million between Friday and Tuesday

 

be sitting at 330 min by 27th with another week of Holidays. 

Edited December 18, 2016 by Lordmandeep

[Daxtreme]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Really, it's like some of you forgot all sense and logic when remembering how box office works. 155m openers and 50m openers will NEVER behave the same, I don't care if they open in a brand new 13th month of the year. 

 

Actually, they do behave the same. It's you that is completely lost in your own narrative.

 

If you follow box office for 50M openers this year, you'll notice that they perform pretty much on par with bigger openers. The outlier is clearly Batman V Superman, but that one just got toxic WoM, it just cannot be compared with "normal" movies, regardless of size of opening. Also, animation movies have a historical tendency to drop much less than live action so they can't be compared to live action. In fact, animation movies opening to 100+ (like Dory), function exactly like smaller openers (zootopia/moana), they have roughly the same multipliers and w-e drops.

 

That leaves us with the following live action (I only picked top 15, haven't got all day)

 

Order is Movie Name (2nd w-e drop, 3rd w-e drop, 4th w-e drop)

 

Civil War $179M OW (-59.5%, -54.7%, -53.3%)

Deadpool $132M OW (-57.4%, -44.9%, 46.2%)

Suicide Squad $133M OW (-67.4%, 52.1%, -41.3%) 

Doctor Strange $85M OW (-49.5%, -58.7%. -22.7% HOLIDAY)

Fantastic Beasts $74.4M OW (-39.4%, -59.8%, -42.5%)

Jason Bourne $59M OW (-62.2%, -38.2%, -42.1%)

Star Trek Beyond $59M OW (-58.2%, -59.5%, -31.3%)

X-Men Apocalypse $65M OW (-65.3%, -56.6%, -46.5%)

 

I don't see any significant difference between those movies. They pretty much all had a horrendous drop at some point. Civil War clearly dropped the most, but it was a sequel to about 8 movies...

 

In fact, a $133M opener (Deadpool), performed better than most ~$60M openers (X-Men, Jason Bourne, Star Trek)...

 

If anything, there is some data here indicating that bigger openers can perform BETTER than smaller openers. You know, word of mouth and all that.

 

Just what were you trying to say exactly...?  

 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Actually, they do behave the same. It's you that is completely lost in your own narrative.

 

If you follow box office for 50M openers this year, you'll notice that they perform pretty much on par with bigger openers. The outlier is clearly Batman V Superman, but that one just got toxic WoM, it just cannot be compared with "normal" movies, regardless of size of opening. Also, animation movies have a historical tendency to drop much less than live action so they can't be compared to live action. In fact, animation movies opening to 100+ (like Dory), function exactly like smaller openers (zootopia/moana), they have roughly the same multipliers and w-e drops.

 

That leaves us with the following live action (I only picked top 15, haven't got all day)

 

Order is Movie Name (2nd w-e drop, 3rd w-e drop, 4th w-e drop)

 

Civil War $179M OW (-59.5%, -54.7%, -53.3%)

Deadpool $132M OW (-57.4%, -44.9%, 46.2%)

Suicide Squad $133M OW (-67.4%, 52.1%, -41.3%) 

Doctor Strange $85M OW (-49.5%, -58.7%. -22.7% HOLIDAY)

Fantastic Beasts $74.4M OW (-39.4%, -59.8%, -42.5%)

Jason Bourne $59M OW (-62.2%, -38.2%, -42.1%)

Star Trek Beyond $59M OW (-58.2%, -59.5%, -31.3%)

X-Men Apocalypse $65M OW (-65.3%, -56.6%, -46.5%)

 

I don't see any significant difference between those movies. They pretty much all had a horrendous drop at some point. Civil War clearly dropped the most, but it was a sequel to about 8 movies...

 

In fact, a $133M opener (Deadpool), performed better than most ~$60M openers (X-Men, Jason Bourne, Star Trek)...

 

If anything, there is some data here indicating that bigger openers can perform BETTER than smaller openers. You know, word of mouth and all that.

 

Just what were you trying to say exactly...?  

 

 

 

Lol, nice job of cherry picking sub 70m openers that had poor WOM. All those 90+ openers you listed had well below a 3x multi, so you're not really helping your case there...

Edited December 18, 2016 by MovieMan89

[hw64]

19 minutes ago, Rallax said:

Have you been correct about anything regarding R1 yet?  Just curious.

 

I wasn't aware I'd been wrong about anything yet, or that I'd made any sort of concrete predictions (here) that even enabled me to be wrong.

 

Well, maybe a few. I said that the ratio between Australian opening weekend in AUD to US opening weekend in USD would increase for Rogue One from the 1:9.1 ratio that TFA had. Given the numbers we have now ($10m opening weekend in Aus = $15m AUD ish), that ratio is 15:155 = 1:10.3, so I was right.

 

I also said that its previews multiplier would be far less than Civil War's or BvS's. Rogue One has a 5.34 multiplier compared to BvS's 5.99 and Civil War's 7.16, and I was right there too. @Daxtreme, who liked your post, was seriously entertaining the possibility of a multiplier in the ballpark of those two, so he's got not legs to stand on. As far as I can tell he hasn't gotten anything right in the past few weeks.

 

In general, if I'm making predictions, it's not going to be on here though, so there's not much I've said concretely.

 

What have you been correct about in the past two weeks?

[Lordmandeep]

it may have opened to 12th biggest but after 11-12 day only TA, JW and SW7 will be ahead in pace. 

 

Meaning its  on a healthy track 

[grey ghost]

I'm happy with 3.2x legs for RO.

 

Gets it passed 500 m.

 

500 m is the next milestone for me. 

 

Only six movies in history have made it beyond that mark.

[MCKillswitch123]

I think that this weekend basically locks the top 10 biggest OW's of the year 2016:

1. Civil War - 179M
2. Batman V Superman - 166M
3. Rogue One - 155M
4. Finding Dory - 135M
5. Suicide Squad - 133M
6. Deadpool - 132M
7. TSLOP - 104M
8. The Jungle Book - 103M
9. Doctor Strange - 84M
10. Zootopia - 75M

8 freaking 100M+ openers. Taking the number of 100M+ OW's in one year record, previously held by 2015 at 6 (TFA, Jurassic World, Ultron, Furious 7, Minions, and MJ Part 2).

Edited December 18, 2016 by MCKillswitch123

[MovieMan89]

Needs a 3.24x to hit 500. Which will likely increase to at least a 3.25x when actuals come in. 

[Fullbuster]

$155m OW is a great number, I'm satisfied

 

NEW BOX OFFICE THEORY POLL : DON'T HESITATE TO TELL US WHERE YOU COME FROM IN THIS THREAD ->

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SteveJaros]

22 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

on Moana, I have it making around 240 give or take 5M. It is tracking pretty close to Tangled +20%.

 

 

 

I guess everyone has these models and tracking charts showing Moana doing that. I'll be happy if it creeps over $200m DOM.

 

As for R1, it's DOM success (at least $350m) seems assured. The big issue is OS. For some reason, Star Wars doesn't seem to pack the OS punch relative to DOM that franchises like Marvel and Potter do.