STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI | 712.4 M overseas ● 1332.5 M worldwide

[MaxAggressor]

 

[Chad Stevens]

59 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

1.3 Billion looks a lot better....

 

It's not great but not bad

[FantasticBeasts]

On 18/1/2018 at 3:01 PM, Chad Stevens said:

not a chance....  

(regarding TLJ failing to pass DH2)

On 21/1/2018 at 11:04 PM, Chad Stevens said:

basically, terrible.. crawling to a 1.32 billion finish 

HP8 is safe

 

so is TA for DOM

 

It will finish where its at all-time

 

13 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

1.3 Billion looks a lot better....

 

It's not great but not bad

 

Intresting thought process!

[Chad Stevens]

5 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

regarding TLJ failing to pass DH2)

 

 

Intresting thought process!

Was trying to be positive. In all fairness though, the first two tweets are correct. It will not pass TA and HP8 is safe as well.

 

I didn't want TLJ to fail if that is what your trying to get at. I'm just noting the less than stellar BO run. However, 1.3 Billion is NOT BAD but not what was expected. I think that's where the whole failure thing in the media and some fans come from. 

 

All good friend 

Edited January 28, 2018 by Chad Stevens

[Valonqar]

TLJ did totally expected OS. It bombed in China as expected. It lost audience in other new markets that were only briefly attracted by TFA hype and then reverted to their old habit of ignoring this franchise. It retained interest in old markets. The only surprise is its rather underwhelming domestic hold. But OS, it did as people projected which is 700-750M. 

 

TFA's OS run was an anomaly that won't be repeated. IX should make about as much as TLJ OS give or take due to exchange rates.  

[Noctis]

Yea, it's gonna drop $420m from TFA overseas.

[Chad Stevens]

TFA was an EVENT

No one had seen Star Wars for 12 years.

 

Avatar 2 will be an EVENT

No one has seen AVATAR for 10 years

 

I believe Avatar 3 will be like TLJ as far as dropping unless its Jumanji like with fan love

 

[Chad Stevens]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

TLJ did totally expected OS. It bombed in China as expected. It lost audience in other new markets that were only briefly attracted by TFA hype and then reverted to their old habit of ignoring this franchise. It retained interest in old markets. The only surprise is its rather underwhelming domestic hold. But OS, it did as people projected which is 700-750M. 

 

TFA's OS run was an anomaly that won't be repeated. IX should make about as much as TLJ OS give or take due to exchange rates.  

 

I agree! TLJ should have done 700 or more.

 

Are you saying it should've looked something like 700/750?

[peludo]

2 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

 

I agree! TLJ should have done 700 or more.

 

Are you saying it should've looked something like 700/750?

TLJ is doing exactly what should have expected. It has dropped in the same way Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones did. It is dropping about a 37%, what is a bit deeper than the first two episodes, maybe because the drop in China is huge and the other trilogies had not the China effect. Without China, TLJ is making a 66-67% of what TFA did. Attack of the clones did a 69% of TPM. ESB did a 73% of what Star Wars did. The difference is not too big between the second parts. The trend seems clear. I guess that Episode IX will rebound to maybe 75-80% of TFA (1.5-1.6b).

 

Said this, I thought that Fisher's death would have an effect, but it is clear that is has not happened.

[Rebeccas]

1 minute ago, peludo said:

TLJ is doing exactly what should have expected. It has dropped in the same way Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones did. It is dropping about a 37%, what is a bit deeper than the first two episodes, maybe because the drop in China is huge and the other trilogies had not the China effect. Without China, TLJ is making a 66-67% of what TFA did. Attack of the clones did a 69% of TPM. ESB did a 73% of what Star Wars did. The difference is not too big between the second parts. The trend seems clear. I guess that Episode IX will rebound to maybe 75-80% of TFA (1.5-1.6b).

 

Said this, I thought that Fisher's death would have an effect, but it is clear that is has not happened.

ESB was not this steep at all (its only like 20% or so if you're not including all the re-releases ANH got post-1979) but AOTC was a terrible movie following up a poorly received movie so what does that say..

[Valonqar]

41 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

 

I agree! TLJ should have done 700 or more.

 

Are you saying it should've looked something like 700/750?

No, just that predictions here were that it would make between 700-750M OS and it will make around 710-720M which is in line with expectations. No surprises either + or -. 

 

@peludo I think that Fisher Effect didn't happen because a year passed and her role was small and not that significant all things considered, unlike Walker/Ledger. Also, I guess that young actors dying attract more sentiment. There may have been some effect opening weekend but not beyond.

Edited January 29, 2018 by Valonqar

[Chad Stevens]

18 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

No, just that predictions here were that it would make between 700-750M OS and it will make around 710-720M which is in line with expectations. No surprises either + or -. 

 

@peludo I think that Fisher Effect didn't happen because a year passed and her role was small and not that significant all things considered, unlike Walker/Ledger. Also, I guess that young actors dying attract more sentiment. There may have been some effect opening weekend but not beyond.

ya, I didn't hear any BUZZ about Fisher at all during its run.

[Valonqar]

12 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

ya, I didn't hear any BUZZ about Fisher at all during its run.

I kind of remember that he anniversary day had a bit of a bump or at least the drop was softer but don't quote me on it. LF and Disney didn't try to capitalize on, it which is commendable, but there were tweets from fans. 

[hw64]

3 hours ago, Valonqar said:

TLJ did totally expected OS. It bombed in China as expected. (...) But OS, it did as people projected which is 700-750M.

Overseas predictions in this thread from December 2017 onwards, prior to the film's release:

 

$850m

$950m

$800m-$850m

$900m

$800m

$850m

$800m+

"Over $768m"

"I think it clears $800m OS at least."

$750m

$750m max

 

The majority of people had it at the $800-$900m mark. It's underperformed worse domestically than overseas, but to say most people projected $700-$750m is objectively wrong - pretty much nobody predicted an overseas gross as low as $710m. And a bomb in China wasn't expected, either. It was looking likely to do worse than Rogue One, but not as low as $40m.

Edited January 29, 2018 by hw64

[Valonqar]

@hw64 Fair enough, perhaps I didn't check the same threads or see the same numbers. 

Edited January 29, 2018 by Valonqar

[peludo]

2 hours ago, Rebeccas said:

ESB was not this steep at all (its only like 20% or so if you're not including all the re-releases ANH got post-1979) but AOTC was a terrible movie following up a poorly received movie so what does that say..

I made quite quick calculations so I could be wrong, but according BOM data:

 

DOM, I took $307m for ANH and $209m for ESB (first run grosses for each). And OS, $314m for ANH and $247m for ESB. It adds up $621 for ANH and $456m for ESB. That means a 27% drop for ESB from ANH in WW figures.

 

Anyway, even if the real drop was just of 23-24% it is not so far away from the 31% that AOTC dropped relative to TPM, even considering the difference in quality between both first and second trilogies). And TLJ is dropping in the same way (33-34% excluding China). The first episodes of each trilogy were event films and the second parts, independently of the quality of each first or second part, have dropped in a similar way to a more normal amounts.

 

Relative to quality, I asumed a similar reception from both critics and audience and I predicted 800-850 for both DOM and OS. But maybe in terms of quality the film has failed. and we should look at the mixed reception that TLJ has had to find an answer why it has dropped so much.

 

I know that the online scores should be taken carefully, but that 48% of approbation in Rotten Tomatoes (inferior to the 88% of Force Awakens, 59% of Phantom Menace and the 57% of Attack of the Clones) can be a sign that should be taken into account. There are signs that say that TLJ has not been very well received, and grosses and legs everywhere are good proof of that.

Edited January 29, 2018 by peludo

[Fullbuster]

Everyone know that Infinity War will beat TLJ

[Giesi]

10 minutes ago, peludo said:

Relative to quality, I asumed a similar reception from both critics and audience and I predicted 800-850 for both DOM and OS. But maybe in terms of quality the film has failed. and we should look at the mixed reception that TLJ has had to find an answer why it has dropped so much.

 

In terms of quality the film hasn‘t failed at all, it was raved by many, the 8.1/10 average on RT proves that, and don‘t come at me with the „The Mouse pays off the critic“

I agree though that a lot of hardcore fans were offended by the movie for various reasons, but that divisiveness could be an advantage over time, sparking new discussions and helping to keep the franchise vital. I‘m sure TLJ will go down as a top5, maybe top3 SW movie in the public eye.

[Chad Stevens]

19 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Everyone know that Infinity War will beat TLJ

Will it? 615 Million is pretty darn hard.

Are you referring to WW? If so, yes, it will beat SW TLJ WW

 

DOM is another story

[Fullbuster]

18 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

Will it? 615 Million is pretty darn hard.

Are you referring to WW? If so, yes, it will beat SW TLJ WW

 

DOM is another story

 

Yes, WW!