STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI | 712.4 M overseas ● 1332.5 M worldwide

[druv10]

950M

[jb007]

900M

[RobinHood26]

On January 30, 2017 at 6:44 AM, Valonqar said:

@peludo very true. Some franchises max out with the first movie. SW seems to be that kind of a franchise. trilogies that take LOTR boxoffice (each new movie increases) are rare. But LOTR was the best ever so...

 

Not about quality, its about the size of the franchise too. Star Wars didn't have room to grow, LOTR did. 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2017 by Jay Hollywood

[Valonqar]

54 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

 

Not about quality, its about the size of the franchise too. Star Wars didn't have room to grow, LOTR did. 

 

 

 

That's true because SW seems to attract most viewers with the first movie and than there's nowhere else to go but down. While FOTR had an actually OK-ish opening for a tentpole but kept going and going and going, and than the next two opened real big. 

 

I'm biased so my assessment is likely inaccurate but  I think that one of reasons why LOTR kept growing is that it's so incredibly emotional. You really feel how much those characters care for each other. I'm not discussing OT because those were different times and boxoffice was so different, but PT and TFA. I haven't seen any evidence that Johnson will make a movie even remotely as emotional as Jackson's,and TP and TFA certainly weren't even close. 

 

Edited February 6, 2017 by Valonqar

[DeeCee]

20% drop so I'll say $900m at this stage.

[peludo]

14 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

That's true because SW seems to attract most viewers with the first movie and than there's nowhere else to go but down. While FOTR had an actually OK-ish opening for a tentpole but kept going and going and going, and than the next two opened real big. 

 

I'm biased so my assessment is likely inaccurate but  I think that one of reasons why LOTR kept growing is that it's so incredibly emotional. You really feel how much those characters care for each other. I'm not discussing OT because those were different times and boxoffice was so different, but PT and TFA. I haven't seen any evidence that Johnson will make a movie even remotely as emotional as Jackson's,and TP and TFA certainly weren't even close. 

 

IMHO, the reasons why SW8 will drop are more simple. The growth of LOTR in USA is unquestionable, but it is not so clear OS. FOTR was the most attended of the trilogy in most of the European countries (FOTR 61.2m admissions, TTT 55.6m, ROTK 54.7m, according Lumiere). And in many countries, FOTR was a monster, one of the most attended films ever, so there was not too much room to grow. The reason why LOTR grew OS was just because exchange rates. FOTR (and 2001 films) are the most hit by this factor ever. ER were even worse in that period (euro under dollar). On the other side, in USA, FOTR being big, it was not THAT big, and allowed the sequels to grow. LOTR was, in general, bigger in OS markets than in USA.

 

Relative to Star Wars, it is a different phenomenon. It was a monster since the first film. It was really hard for it to grow. And the same happens now. I do not know if Fisher's death can make people return and maybe we can have a surprise. But even Empire Strikes Back, being considered for many the best of the franchise and with many emotional moments, dropped a lot relative to Star Wars. When we talk about so enourmous numbers, it is hard not just growing, but to keep the same level of interest.

[Valonqar]

@peludo Great points. I also think that some people overestimate Fisher's death. Leia isn't a big player anymore so it isn't really comparable to major roles that Heath Ledger and Paul Walker had in TDK and F7 respectively. Also, young actors cut off at their prime is a different kind of tragedy. I don't recall that Robin Williams death helped Night at the Museum or at least not visibly. But I may be wrong.

[peludo]

7 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

@peludo Great points. I also think that some people overestimate Fisher's death. Leia isn't a big player anymore so it isn't really comparable to major roles that Heath Ledger and Paul Walker had in TDK and F7 respectively. Also, young actors cut off at their prime is a different kind of tragedy. I don't recall that Robin Williams death helped Night at the Museum or at least not visibly. But I may be wrong.

First of all, I am not specially comfortable talking about box office potential because the death of some actors/actresses, but I think is unavoidable taking into account so obvious recent cases.

 

IMO, Fisher's case is closer to Ledger and Walker than to Williams. Robin Williams' death was a tragedy, unexpected. But Night at the museum is an anecdotical film (with all my respect), a minor blockbuster. On the other side, Joker is one of the most iconical villains ever and the interpretation of Ledger is already legendary. Walker's case can be seen as a reflection of the film itself: he died doing what he did in the films, driving too fast. And the franchise was already big (beyond the Chinese explosion).

 

Relative to Fisher's case, Leia is one of the most iconical characters ever concerning blockbusters. Her role is not as big as it was in the original trilogy, but many people have argued here that the enormous success of TFA has been precisely because of the return of Solo, Leia and Chewy. Nostalgia factor. I think that to see how Disney will solve Leia's destiny is an enormous reclaim. We should not underestimate this unexpected factor to make predictions. SW8 will probably drop relative to SW7, but maybe not so much as we had thought at the beginning.

[Valonqar]

Agreed. I meant that it would soften the drop but it wouldn't make TLJ increase over TFA or stay flat. 

[Giesi]

So F8 is on the road to $1bn, depending on the legs. I'm sure TLJ won't be able to match those numbers on the international front. The most I can see is $900M. Bad ER, Asia and parts of South America not so interested in the series and an overall more darker tone are some of the reasons. I hope I'm wrong, though!

[George Parr]

I definately see FF8 ahead at this point internationally, China is just too big to make up in that regard. I'd expect it to be rather similar to the last matchup. TLJ will destroy FF8 domestically, just like TFA destroyed Furious 7. FF8 will destroy TLJ in China, though the margin should be quite a bit lower than the domestic difference. "The international markets  minus China" should go towards TLJ, as it happened the last time around as well, but China will be enough to keep FF8 ahead internationally. In total, TLJ should come out ahead worldwide as well.

 

To put it into numbers: F7 had 390m in China and 760m in the other international markets, TFA had 124m in China and 1.07b in the other markets, for a difference of about 30m when all international markets are combined. FF8 shouldn't drop much in China and it is unclear how much it will drop elsewhere, though I don't expect it to keep up like that either. I expect TLJ to drop quite a bit internationally, because 1b without China is very tough to do and TFA benefitted from being the first new SW movie in quite some time.

[James]

Around 800m or so OS sounds about right.

[KP1025]

Looks like it will finish around $1.5-1.6 billion, probably above the Avengers but under Jurassic World. 

[PanaMovie]

850-950M OS

750M DOM

 

1.6-1.7B WW

[MattW]

We normally get OS updates for Wed, Thur, Fri and Sunday for these big overseas openings:

 

The Force Awakens

14.1 Wed

72.7 Thur

129.5 Fri

---   Sat

279 Sun

281.0 Weekend actuals

 

Jurassic World (minus China)

7.3 Wed

35.7 Thur

80   Fri

---  Sat

206.4 Sun

215.5 Weekend actuals

 

Batman V Superman (minus China)

9   Wed

44   Thur

95.5 Fri

---   Sat

199.4 Sun (actuals)

 

My guess is Ep8 will be in the 220-240 range for the opening.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

$850M OS

[UserHN]

Very positive early reactions for this film. Minimal negative things to say. But I don't think it can match TFA. My optimistic forecast is $750 domestic + $950 international = $1.7 billion worldwide. My pessimistic forecast is $600 domestic + $750 international= $1.35 billion worldwide. Maybe the result will be somewhere in between.

[peludo]

IMO, it is more likely to drop OS than DOM. I think the ratio can rise to 47/53 or 48/52, even 50/50, since I think Fisher's factor will affect more domestically. I say 800-850 for both DOM and OS.

Edited December 11, 2017 by peludo

[John Marston]

I'm going with 900m

[Elessar]

$800m OS

$750m DOM

Edited December 11, 2017 by Elessar