STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI | 712.4 M overseas ● 1332.5 M worldwide

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, Tower said:

OS weekends isn't always 3 days, many places include Thursday and Japan only includes Saturday and Sunday.

OK thanks, like the poster I find oversea BO hard to follow because of how different market by market a OW vs weekly, etc... is computed.

[FantasticBeasts]

9 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Ha, yeah, thanks. No idea how Avatar turned into Avengers there.

 

Really?

That is news to me. I certainly don't remember you talking about 700m, more like something in the 600m range.

 

Besides, I said 700-800m range, not 700m. And I wasn't talking about MY predictions here anyway. Not that you could find any post where I claimed this would do something like 900m or so, or even something approach that.

My low end was $650m and the most realistic case low 700s it won't be that far from it will it? 

 

[Taruseth]

On 31.12.2017 at 5:54 PM, Taruseth said:

Deadline:

"Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi has made the jump across the coveted $1B mark worldwide, grossing $1.04B through Sunday. The Rian Johnson-helmed installment is the 4th movie to pass the milestone in 2017, and the second for Disney after Beauty And The Beast. The international box office cume is now $523.3M after a $68M 3rd weekend in 54 material markets.

The Resistance held very well overseas this session, dipping just 12% from last weekend which included Christmas Eve. Several markets saw increases including France (+37%) and Germany (+17%). Overall, the EMEA region was 2% ahead of last weekend.

Jedi is the No. 1 movie of the year in Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Norway and Sweden and held the top spot for the 3rd frame in a row in such key markets as France, Germany, Spain and the UK. It also held No. 1 in Japan.

The top market remains the UK which is approaching a milestone, coming out of the weekend at $91.5M. It’s followed by Germany ($62M), France ($45.6M), Japan, ($40.4M) and Australia ($35.1M)."

 

 

What do you think will this movie finish with?

Something like $650M (so $126.7M) and $50M from China for $700M international.

 

(Last week means: Monday (25th) through Sunday (31st))

Total: $126.7 Needed for $650M (Last week: $142.1M)

Uk: $30M (=> Total: $111.5M) (Last week: $24.1)

Germany: $25M (=> Total: $87M) (Last week: $22M)

France: $15M (=> Total: $60.6M) (Last week: $16.3M)

Japan: $20M (=> Total: $60.4M) (Last Week $11,9M)

Australia; $10M (=> Total: $45.1M) (Last Week $8.2M)

So the others would need $26.7M that should be doable because for those the last week was $59.6M.

As of 7th January: 

Deadline:

With $67.4M in 55 material markets this session, Disney/Lucasfilm’s Episode VIII in the long-running saga is at $632.7M overseas[, only $28.7M came from China] [...]  Globally, it’s risen to $1,205.2M. 

[...]

In other Jedi news this weekend, it has become the 10th highest grossing movie ever in Europe and the biggest of films released in 2017. The UK has crossed $100M to make Episode VIII the 5th biggest film of all time in that market. In the UK and Germany, it’s the top title of 2017. In IMAX, Jedi is the No. 4 movie ever for the format globally ($115M). The international cume is $50M.

It held No. 1s for the 4th weekend in a row in Japan, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary and Switzerland. Russia increased by 2% while other drops were low despite some competitive play. 

The UK leads all markets currently at $102.9M followed by Germany ($73.5M), France ($57.6M), Japan ($52.2M) and Australia ($39.8M).

 

 

(Last week means: Monday 1th) through Sunday (7st))

So the OS-Ch-Cume is $604M

Total: $46M Needed for $650M (Last week: $80.7M)

Uk: $10M (=> Total: $112.9M) (Last week: $11.4M) (So $18.6M left for the initial $30M)

Germany: $10M  (=> Total: $83.5M) (Last week: $11.5M) (So $13.5M left for the $25M)

France: $10M (=> Total: $67.6M) (Last week: $12M) (Just $3M left for $15M, underestimated the legs here)

Japan:  $20M (=> Total: $72.2M) (Last Week $11,8M) (Just $8.2M left for $20M, forgot the New Years etc. Holidays (Monday - Wednesday)

Australia: $5M (=> Total: $44.8M) (Last Week $4.7M) (So $5.3M left for $10M)

So just with that added Money Os-China would be $659M (and 57.8% would be from UK, Germany, France, Japan and Australia)

The other Markets did $29.3M in the last week, they should add $15-20M more.

$29.3M are just 36.3% of the Weeks gross, compared to 41.9% last week (so legs in the other Markets are worse

Would leave TLJ with a Total of $674+M-$679+M OS-Ch, that would be between my most likely and high end.

As of now I think UK and Germany still have a chance at grossing $18.6M and $13.5M instead of $10M each, but I wouldn't count on it as legs in Germany at least don't look that good anymore. That would put the OS-China gross at

$686.1+M-$691.1+M, that certainly seems to high, because that would be above the small Chance, so Germany and the UK might really just gross $10M each 

On 1.1.2018 at 4:08 PM, Taruseth said:

I think low end is $1325+M ($625+M Dom, $50+M China, $650+M) with a small chance at $1400M ($645M, $70M China, $685M). So I think it most likely will end somewhere around $1360M ($630M, $65M, $665M)

Well, I certainly got carried away with the gross in China (Presales ahead of RO, on par with JL/Thor etc. ) and Domestic also now looks worse.

Now I would put those at:

low end: $1310M ($605M Dom, $35M China, $670M) (OS (including Ch): 53.6%

most likely:$1332.5M ($620M, $37.5M, $675M) (OS%: 53.3%)

high end: $1355M ($625M Dom, $40M China, $690M) (OS%: 53.7%)

TFA: OS: 54.7% 

RO: OS: 49.6%

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by Taruseth

[mikee11]

 

[Lordmandeep]

The overseas total is within expectations. 

 

Domestic total is what underperformed.

 

That was not expected. 

[RobinHood26]

-

Edited August 8, 2020 by RobinHood26

[mikee11]

35 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

The overseas total is within expectations. 

 

Domestic total is what underperformed.

 

That was not expected. 

Guess it depends, it's doing good money in markets like UK or Japan where it's running 20-25% behind TFA and I that's great.

But it's really doing terrible compared to TFA in markets like China or Russia 

[Barnack]

49 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

The overseas total is within expectations. 

 

Domestic total is what underperformed.

 

That was not expected. 

 

That almost sound like you expected an 50/50 if not even a bigger domestic than intl split.

[hw64]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

That almost sound like you expected an 50/50 if not even a bigger domestic than intl split.

It's going to end up close to a 47/53 split. The underperformance affected domestic more than it did overseas - if it had performed as expected, it'd probably have been closer to 49/51.

[Barnack]

11 minutes ago, hw64 said:

It's going to end up close to a 47/53 split. The underperformance affected domestic more than it did overseas - if it had performed as expected, it'd probably have been closer to 49/51.

 

With Awaken doing 45.3%/54.7%, if it end up with 47/53 the drop for W7 was worst overseas than domestic no ?

 

Or is he exchange rate worst and those numbers were expected or are people correcting for China factor drop or something else I do not get ?

 

Is that base on Rogue One 50.4%/49.6% performance and people expecting more Rogue One type of split than Awaken ?

Edited January 9, 2018 by Barnack

[hw64]

14 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

With Awaken doing 45.3%/54.7%, if it end up with 47/53 the drop for W7 was worst overseas than domestic no ?

 

Or is he exchange rate worst and those numbers were expected or are people correcting for China factor drop or something else I do not get ?

 

Is that base on Rogue One 50.4%/49.6% performance and people expecting more Rogue One type of split than Awaken ?

Exchange rates are better almost across the board than The Force Awakens. EUR, AUD, JPY, RUB are all up from December 2015 against the dollar. The only notable exception is the pound, which is down slightly, but overall, given the share of the overseas gross that these markets make up collectively compared to the share the UK makes up, exchange rates are definitely more favorable for The Last Jedi. There's even the service fees in China which boost Chinese grosses by about 6%, which TFA didn't have.

 

So yeah, the overseas drop is worse overall than the domestic drop, the reason being that The Force Awakens over-performed to a significant degree in markets like Russia, South Korea, China, Mexico, Brazil, etc. etc. That's the only reason why TFA sniffed a 45%/55% split - The Last Jedi is simply reverting to the Star Wars norm. In the case of episodic movies, you're probably looking at 47-49%/51-53% splits, and it wouldn't be surprising for the spinoffs to regularly have splits that are over 50% domestic.

[Brainbug]

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$572,691,546	47.2%
+ Foreign:	$640,800,000	52.8%
= Worldwide:	$1,213,491,546

 

Thats without the 1.8M DOM Monday number. With that, TLJ stands at 1,215,291,546 and thus has surpassed Iron Man 3 for #12 Worldwide.

[Valonqar]

47 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

 

So yeah, the overseas drop is worse overall than the domestic drop, the reason being that The Force Awakens over-performed to a significant degree in markets like Russia, South Korea, China, Mexico, Brazil, etc. etc. That's the only reason why TFA sniffed a 45%/55% split - The Last Jedi is simply reverting to the Star Wars norm. In the case of episodic movies, you're probably looking at 47-49%/51-53% splits, and it wouldn't be surprising for the spinoffs to regularly have splits that are over 50% domestic.

This. TFA was an exception. TLJ, RO, likely Solo and IX are going to be the rule. No over-performance in markets that were never big on SW. Curiosity phase passed with TFA and didn't stick.

Edited January 9, 2018 by Valonqar

[IronJimbo]

Looking like 0.5A is off the cards.

[Blaze Heatnix]

On Sunday, overseas number was at 640 million. Now, it's updated to 646 million overseas.

 

Did the movie only make 6 million overseas in 2 days ( China's number obviously included ) ? That seems awful.

[mikee11]

1 hour ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

On Sunday, overseas number was at 640 million. Now, it's updated to 646 million overseas.

 

Did the movie only make 6 million overseas in 2 days ( China's number obviously included ) ? That seems awful.

6.8 million monday and 5.2 million tuesday

[James]

nvm

Edited January 11, 2018 by James

[Blaze Heatnix]

4 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

6.8 million monday and 5.2 million tuesday

 

Boxofficemojo updated its overseas grosses on Tuesday. So, are the Tuesday overseas numbers already included or not? That's strange.

 

Are China's numbers included too? Thanks.

[James]

4 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

Boxofficemojo updated its overseas grosses on Tuesday. So, are the Tuesday overseas numbers already included or not? That's strange.

 

Are China's numbers included too? Thanks.

If the China numbers are are included, then that is a downright horrible drop from last week. Of those 5.2m on Tuesday, 2m would come from China. That is only 3.2m from the rest of the markets when last week it made about 11-12m or so I think. And seeing how China will die this weekend, 700m will be a crawl. That is, if it happens at all.

 

Looking at the bright side, DH2's WW number looks safe. 1.33b looks like the best case scenario. Realistically, it will likely do around 1.31b or so. 

[Olive]

29 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

Boxofficemojo updated its overseas grosses on Tuesday. So, are the Tuesday overseas numbers already included or not? That's strange.

 

Are China's numbers included too? Thanks.

$646,000,000    as of Tuesday, CHina lncluded.