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STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI | 712.4 M overseas ● 1332.5 M worldwide

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2 hours ago, peludo said:

I made quite quick calculations so I could be wrong, but according BOM data:

 

DOM, I took $307m for ANH and $209m for ESB (first run grosses for each). And OS, $314m for ANH and $247m for ESB. It adds up $621 for ANH and $456m for ESB. That means a 27% drop for ESB from ANH in WW figures.

 

Anyway, even if the real drop was just of 23-24% it is not so far away from the 31% that AOTC dropped relative to TPM, even considering the difference in quality between both first and second trilogies). And TLJ is dropping in the same way (33-34% excluding China). The first episodes of each trilogy were event films and the second parts, independently of the quality of each first or second part, have dropped in a similar way to a more normal amounts.

 

Relative to quality, I asumed a similar reception from both critics and audience and I predicted 800-850 for both DOM and OS. But maybe in terms of quality the film has failed. and we should look at the mixed reception that TLJ has had to find an answer why it has dropped so much.

 

I know that the online scores should be taken carefully, but that 48% of approbation in Rotten Tomatoes (inferior to the 88% of Force Awakens, 59% of Phantom Menace and the 57% of Attack of the Clones) can be a sign that should be taken into account. There are signs that say that TLJ has not been very well received, and grosses and legs everywhere are good proof of that.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-IV-A-New-Hope#tab=box-office

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1 hour ago, Giesi said:

In terms of quality the film hasn‘t failed at all, it was raved by many, the 8.1/10 average on RT proves that, and don‘t come at me with the „The Mouse pays off the critic“

I agree though that a lot of hardcore fans were offended by the movie for various reasons, but that divisiveness could be an advantage over time, sparking new discussions and helping to keep the franchise vital. I‘m sure TLJ will go down as a top5, maybe top3 SW movie in the public eye.

I have always seen absurd that supposed conspiracy of critics being paid by Disney. I do not believe in that. But I find quite shocking the difference between critics and audience reaction. The 8.1/10 average is the critics rating. The audience rating is 3/5. Attack of the Clones users rating was 3.3/5. It had a bigger rating than TLJ...

 

And legs do not lie: it is finishing with about a x2.8 multiplier after Christmas. TFA had a x3.79. And although I am conscious that the opening implies that the film is not normal and should not be compared to other films, the multiplier seems poor in my book. The previous December opening record, Hobbit I, had a x3.6 multiplier and it was not precisely adored by people or critics (I know, Hobbit opened $135m lower, but beyond TFA, it is the biggest comparable film in December...).

 

Maybe I am wrong. These are just asumptions following data. But I do not find too many evidences that TLJ is too much loved...

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46 minutes ago, peludo said:

I have always seen absurd that supposed conspiracy of critics being paid by Disney. I do not believe in that. But I find quite shocking the difference between critics and audience reaction. The 8.1/10 average is the critics rating. The audience rating is 3/5. Attack of the Clones users rating was 3.3/5. It had a bigger rating than TLJ...

 

And legs do not lie: it is finishing with about a x2.8 multiplier after Christmas. TFA had a x3.79. And although I am conscious that the opening implies that the film is not normal and should not be compared to other films, the multiplier seems poor in my book. The previous December opening record, Hobbit I, had a x3.6 multiplier and it was not precisely adored by people or critics (I know, Hobbit opened $135m lower, but beyond TFA, it is the biggest comparable film in December...).

 

Maybe I am wrong. These are just asumptions following data. But I do not find too many evidences that TLJ is too much loved...

Yeah, I don't buy Top 3-5 in a long run either. Everything pertaining to the Resistance will not age well. It isn't ESB situation where, once removed from shot-down headcanons (boo-hoo Leia chooses Han over Luke, boo-hoo Vader is Luke's daddy), people are left with the high quality movie that's all lean meat and no fat. The Resistance is a total bloat and a stupid one, at that. I can see the handling of Luke character grow in stature over the years when people calm down, but not the slow chase/mutiny/Canto Bight. 

 

BTW, does anyone have WSJ membership? I'm interested in what this article says:

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-last-jedi-loses-sales-momentum-raising-concern-for-disney-1517245312

Edited by Valonqar
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8 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Yeah, I don't buy Top 3-5 in a long run either. Everything pertaining to the Resistance will not age well. It isn't ESB situation where, once removed from shot-down headcanons (boo-hoo Leia chooses Han over Luke, boo-hoo Vader is Luke's daddy), people are left with the high quality movie that's all lean meat and no fat. The Resistance is a total bloat and a stupid one, at that. I can see the handling of Luke character grow in stature over the years when people calm down, but not the slow chase/mutiny/Canto Bight. 

 

BTW, does anyone have WSJ membership? I'm interested in what this article says:

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-last-jedi-loses-sales-momentum-raising-concern-for-disney-1517245312

http://archive.is/YuTYV

 

Quote
Six years after Walt Disney Co. spent $4 billion to buy a single franchise, “Star Wars” is looking a little less stellar.
Despite being one of the past year’s most successful movies, “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” has fallen short of Wall Street’s expectations due to a faster-than-expected falloff at the box office, declining toy sales and a poor showing in China.
With $1.3 billion in global box office for “The Last Jedi,” the most of any movie released in 2017 and No. 9 of all time, Disney’s problems are ones other entertainment companies would kill to have. Nonetheless, for a property as valued as “Star Wars,” any sign audiences are losing faith is concerning and could prove costly down the road if the trend continues.

And on from there.  Nothing new for anyone here on the board really. 

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10 hours ago, Rebeccas said:

Thanks for the info. I guess that I should not trust so much in BOM for old films.

 

Anyway, if ESB did not drop so much (at least domestically), and we asume that it was because of quality, then I guess that the drop of TLJ, which is deeper than ESB's and AotC's, means that it has not been so well received...

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8 hours ago, peludo said:

Thanks for the info. I guess that I should not trust so much in BOM for old films.

 

Anyway, if ESB did not drop so much (at least domestically), and we asume that it was because of quality, then I guess that the drop of TLJ, which is deeper than ESB's and AotC's, means that it has not been so well received...

IMO, I don't know how much we can gleam from ANH/ESB era numbers cause it was a different time with a different pattern of releasing movies. The fact that TLJ dropped worse than the prequels (TPM-> AOTC) is more the issue and it's a MUCH worse drop than Avengers/AoU (also a 2nd film people don't like much).

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2 hours ago, Rebeccas said:

IMO, I don't know how much we can gleam from ANH/ESB era numbers cause it was a different time with a different pattern of releasing movies. The fact that TLJ dropped worse than the prequels (TPM-> AOTC) is more the issue and it's a MUCH worse drop than Avengers/AoU (also a 2nd film people don't like much).

It seems like many of you are really trying desperately to polish a turd with all this normal drop numbers mathematics. It is what it is guys, just a MEH! Not bad, not good but a turd to many.

 

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11 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

The Last Jedi's performance was impressive as a number but what made it "meh" was that it destroyed the myth that nothing can compete with Star Wars that was created after TFA.

We will need to wait for Infitiny war 1-2 and Jurassic World 2-3 numbers to see if the nothing except James Cameron can compete domestic with Star wars will not hold (if those 2 franchise sequels never reach 500m, Star Wars will still be seen as having a clear and significant step above eveything else, were the SW sequel are about as big as the other franchise peak even with a mixed word of mouth)

Edited by Barnack
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TDKR drop from TDK: 16.3%

 

AoU drop from TA: 26.4%

 

Spiderman 2 drop from Spiderman: 7.5%

 

AOTC drop from TPM: 27.8%

 

TLJ drop from TFA: around 33%

 

The Last Jedi seems to be uniquely bad in terms of audience retention as well as in negative reception from fans. It seems that only "critics" liked it. 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

TDKR drop from TDK: 16.3%

 

AoU drop from TA: 26.4%

 

Spiderman 2 drop from Spiderman: 7.5%

 

AOTC drop from TPM: 27.8%

 

TLJ drop from TFA: around 33%

 

The Last Jedi seems to be uniquely bad in terms of audience retention as well as in negative reception from fans. It seems that only "critics" liked it. 

 

 

yes but TLJ also came on the heels of an unusually successful movie. Like, we literally never had a sequel to a 2B grosser so we didn't know how it would behave. We only had assumptions that it shouldn't have gone under ______ (insert number that was considered the floor). I just hope that people don't freak out if Avatar 2 makes under 2B. I think they might adjust expectations of retention given TLJ example.

Edited by Valonqar
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4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

yes but TLJ also came on the heels of an unusually successful movie. Like, we literally never had a sequel to a 2B grosser so we didn't know how it would behave. We only had assumptions that it shouldn't have gone under ______ (insert number that was considered the floor). I just hope that people don't freak out if Avatar 2 makes under 2B. I think they might adjust expectations of retention given TLJ example.

 

It's not just its massive decline from the previous film, but also the overwhelmingly negative reaction of fans and also the fact that it has made less money than The Avengers or Jurassic World. This is now where a Star Wars film should be. Rogue One, a mere spin-off, had better legs. Everything indicates that TLJ is something of a relative disaster (despite its massive BO take)

 

I think this fact will be reflected in the BO numbers of the Solo movie. Episode 9 will also probably suffer as a result. In my view, Disney dropped the ball big-time with TLJ. 

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25 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I just hope that people don't freak out if Avatar 2 makes under 2B. I think they might adjust expectations of retention given TLJ example.

Avatar 2 having similar retention to TLJ would go way above 2B too.

 

Global box office

2009: 29.4b

2010: 31.6b

2017: 39.92B

 

Avatar was in an around 30b box office when it release environment (being a very late 2009 release). 

 

Avatar 1 market share: 2,787,965,087 /30,000,000,000 = 9.29% (that is nuts)

 

If Avatar 2 has a 50% market share drop (to be expected) it would still be above 2B.

 

Global box office was 40b last year, 33% more than in Avatar days.

 

If the global box office is say around 44b in 2020 (a 6% a year grow would be 47.6b, a 3% grow would be 43.7b)

 

That give us under those retention share scenario:

 

Avatar 2 do as well as Avatar 1: 44 * 0.0929 = 4.0876b (almost impossible, sequel of that big of success can just bleed audience I think)

Avatar 2 do 66% of    Avatar 1: 44 * 0.0929 = 2.697b (It need to do 66% as well as the first to do around the same unadjusted, really hard but possible, that is TLJ level of market share retention)

Avatar 2 do half of Avatar 1 market share: 2.04B (that is likely the bar of a giant no asterix success, being 0.5 Avatar in 2020)

 

Avatar was the most popular movie in the market that will have grown the most in absolute term with China and popular in growing market in general, making it a case of a franchise that could take a lot of benefit of it (like Furious 7 from 6 did)

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Barnack
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