WrathOfHan's Controversial 2017 Box Office Predictions

[baumer]

19 hours ago, CJohn said:

Gold will do like 8M total lmao, what predictions are these? This is shit.

 

Come on dude that's not fair. He has opened a thread where he is predicting every movie for the entire year. Not all of them are going to be right and some of them are going to be way off. So what if you disagree with them you don't have to criticize him like that. I think this is a great thread. It opens up a lot of discussion and yes people are going to disagree but you don't have to criticize him for it. I don't understand the mentality of most people in this thread.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Christmas Baumer said:

 

Come on dude that's not fair. He has opened a thread where he is predicting every movie for the entire year. Not all of them are going to be right and some of them are going to be way off. So what if you disagree with them you don't have to criticize him like that. I think this is a great thread. It opens up a lot of discussion and yes people are going to disagree but you don't have to criticize him for it. I don't understand the mentality of most people in this thread.

My Rings prediction turned CJohn around on this thread  

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, Christmas Baumer said:

 

Come on dude that's not fair. He has opened a thread where he is predicting every movie for the entire year. Not all of them are going to be right and some of them are going to be way off. So what if you disagree with them you don't have to criticize him like that. I think this is a great thread. It opens up a lot of discussion and yes people are going to disagree but you don't have to criticize him for it. I don't understand the mentality of most people in this thread.

I shall do the same he is doing. Just to laugh at myself 12 months from now 

[baumer]

But we are still doing one thread at a time correct? I think that is what @Grand Moff Tele

[The Panda]

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see LEGO Batman go over BvS.  I just don't think it's happening. 

 

LEGO Movie was well liked, but it's still a spin-off for it.  And you shouldn't compare it to the live action Batman films, because it isn't one.  

 

It'll be a hit, but it's still an animated movie and 300m is no easy feat for them (even now).  I just think people are getting to wild with their predictions for it.

[That One Girl]

54 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

But we are still doing one thread at a time correct? I think that is what @Grand Moff Tele

 

Yeah I tried opening a thread and it got locked .

 

Hurry up Han so I can share my "controversial" opinions

[MCKillswitch123]

26 minutes ago, La La Panda said:

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see LEGO Batman go over BvS.  I just don't think it's happening. 

 

LEGO Movie was well liked, but it's still a spin-off for it.  And you shouldn't compare it to the live action Batman films, because it isn't one.  

 

It'll be a hit, but it's still an animated movie and 300m is no easy feat for them (even now).  I just think people are getting to wild with their predictions for it.

 

Being a spin-off doesn't mean anything. Rogue One is a Star Wars spin-off, The Hobbit was a LOTR spin-off, and Minions was a Despicable Me spin-off. They still are/were on great financial terms. Hell, Fantastic Beasts, while not doing great, performed pretty nicely all and all, and that had much more loose and less direct connections to Harry Potter than Rogue One/Hobbit/Minions/Lego Batman have to their mother franchise.

 

It's not a live action Batman movie, but it's still a Batman movie. People fucking love Batman. And hell, live action Batman movies haven't clicked that well w/audiences since The Dark Knight Rises, anyway (Suicide Squad is debatable, I guess).

 

And Lego Batman does have a harder amount of competition than Zootopia did (BATB and Boss Baby can be a deterrent to its legs), but Zootopia does prove that, at the same time, it's not THAT hard for a good animated movie to leg it to 300M+ in an open space like February/March. It comes out w/enough of a separation from its competition that it can pull big results when the market is all to it.

 

I just think that, if The Lego Movie, devoid of a memorable marketing campaign and deplored by a lot of people due to its toy cash-in roots, opened to 69M and grossed 250M in February before February became a thing w/Fifty Shades and Deadpool and whatnot, all it takes for Lego Batman is to be good and it'll explode given all the great things it has going for it.

[The Panda]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Being a spin-off doesn't mean anything. Rogue One is a Star Wars spin-off, The Hobbit was a LOTR spin-off, and Minions was a Despicable Me spin-off. They still are/were on great financial terms. Hell, Fantastic Beasts, while not doing great, performed pretty nicely all and all, and that had much more loose and less direct connections to Harry Potter than Rogue One/Hobbit/Minions/Lego Batman have to their mother franchise.

 

It's not a live action Batman movie, but it's still a Batman movie. People fucking love Batman. And hell, live action Batman movies haven't clicked that well w/audiences since The Dark Knight Rises, anyway (Suicide Squad is debatable, I guess).

 

And Lego Batman does have a harder amount of competition than Zootopia did (BATB and Boss Baby can be a deterrent to its legs), but Zootopia does prove that, at the same time, it's not THAT hard for a good animated movie to leg it to 300M+ in an open space like February/March. It comes out w/enough of a separation from its competition that it can pull big results when the market is all to it.

 

I just think that, if The Lego Movie, devoid of a memorable marketing campaign and deplored by a lot of people due to its toy cash-in roots, opened to 69M and grossed 250M in February before February became a thing w/Fifty Shades and Deadpool and whatnot, all it takes for Lego Batman is to be good and it'll explode given all the great things it has going for it.

 

Yes, but all of those spin-offs decreased from the original.  That doesn't bode well for a 50m+ increase from LEGO

[MCKillswitch123]

2 minutes ago, La La Panda said:

 

Yes, but all of those spin-offs decreased from the original.  That doesn't bode well for a 50m+ increase from LEGO

 

Minions, my best comparision due to it being the only animated one of the bunch, did decrease from the originals, but it also outopened them. And it didn't beat them because it sucked, and people caught up to that quickly. It was an anomaly in the animated genre. I believe it was Spielberg that once said that "the marketing team sells opening weekend, I sell the legs". Lego Batman can outopen TLM due to the presence of Batman as a central figure (and after all, Batman was more than likely the top reason people wanted to see TLM, and the main highlight coming out of it), and if its good, it can avoid being another Minions by having strong and, well, animated legs.

[Arlborn]

10 minutes ago, La La Panda said:

 

Yes, but all of those spin-offs decreased from the original.  That doesn't bode well for a 50m+ increase from LEGO

It's a weird case of spin-off though cause it's relying heavily on the Batman lore rather than its original movie story so I don't think it's playing by the same rules.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Arlborn

[WrathOfHan]

February 20:

A Cure for Wellness: This is Gore Verbinski’s first movie since The Lone Ranger, and WOW does it look good! The trailers for this have been incredibly effective so far and have also been performing strongly on YouTube. If Fox can keep sustaining hype for another two months, this movie could get close to 80M. 20/60 (3x)

 

 

 

Fist Fight: Before this movie was rated, I was expected Barbershop 3 numbers minimum, but I think the R rating is going to cut a decent chunk of the gross off. In addition to the other openers this week, it still faces competition from last weekend. Fist Fight should make a decent profit as long as the budget isn’t over 50M; unfortunately, this is Kevin we’re talking about. 15/40 (2.67x)

 

 

 

The Great Wall: The latest installment in the White Man Goes to Asia series (@MrPink), The Great Wall has been performing well in China despite the awful reviews. Matt Damon can still be a decent draw, but can he overcome the critical reception? I’m leaning towards no. February is already a competitive month and could very well be feast or famine. 15/35 (2.33x)

 

 

 

Patient Zero: If The Great Wall and Fist Fight seem like bombs to you, just wait until you get a load of Patient Zero. The movie is less than two months away from release and has no trailers. This movie was already delayed once, so another delay would conjure even more doom. I think this is getting another delay, but it’ll bomb anywhere it releases. 5/10 (2x)

Edited December 28, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[That One Girl]

Fist Fight is waaaaaayyyy too low.  It looks like one of those crowdpleasing appealing comedies that overperforms. 

[Eric Duncan]

56 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Fist Fight is waaaaaayyyy too low.  It looks like one of those crowdpleasing appealing comedies that overperforms. 

[Jonwo]

4 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Minions, my best comparision due to it being the only animated one of the bunch, did decrease from the originals, but it also outopened them. And it didn't beat them because it sucked, and people caught up to that quickly. It was an anomaly in the animated genre. I believe it was Spielberg that once said that "the marketing team sells opening weekend, I sell the legs". Lego Batman can outopen TLM due to the presence of Batman as a central figure (and after all, Batman was more than likely the top reason people wanted to see TLM, and the main highlight coming out of it), and if its good, it can avoid being another Minions by having strong and, well, animated legs.

 

I'm expecting Lego Batman to do $75-80m minimum OW WB has done a great job promoting it so far and we've still got 1 month and a bit until it's released. 

[langer]

I like this thread.  Keep it up @WrathOfHan!

[franfar]

I see Fist Fight as doing similar #s to Ride Along 2/Get Hard. Those both did $90m. They're simple comedies with mass appeal, and I think FF can do the same.

 

I would give Fist Fight $75-85m

Edited December 28, 2016 by fracfar

[franfar]

I'll probably do a "controversy" thread, depending if I'm willing to invest the effort.

[WrathOfHan]

February 27:

Get Out: 2017 already looks to be another great year for horror, and Get Out just adds to that excitement. It has a wildly original story and marks a dark yet still comedic turn for Jordan Peele. I don’t know if the GA will like this movie or go see it, but it should perform better than Keanu at the very least. 15/45 (3x)

 

Rock Dog: Ah, here’s our shitty kids film that was released months ago overseas! LEGO Batman will still be demolishing the competition. Wild Life numbers at best. NEXT! 3/6 (2x)

[Eevin]

21 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

February 27:

 

 

Get Out: 2017 already looks to be another great year for horror, and Get Out just adds to that excitement. It has a wildly original story and marks a dark yet still comedic turn for Jordan Peele. I don’t know if the GA will like this movie or go see it, but it should perform better than Keanu at the very least. 15/45 (3x)

 

 

 

 

 

Rock Dog: Ah, here’s our shitty kids film that was released months ago overseas! LEGO Batman will still be demolishing the competition. Wild Life numbers at best. NEXT! 3/6 (2x)

 

 

I think either A Cure for Wellness or Get Out has the potential to truly break out (say, $75m+) while the other one bombs horribly (say, sub-$20m). I hope both are able to do well, though, if only because we need more films like them in the marketplace right now.

[m3racer123]

I'm thinking 270-290 for Lego Batman, a modest increase from The Lego Movie. WB has seriously marketed it in the UK though, with trailers for it showing before the last few movies I've seen.

 

If the US marketing is just as good, over 300 wouldn't surprise me, but IMO 375 is way out of reach. (So is 100m OW)

 

50 Shades I can see making 50/100, a little bit higher than your prediction. John Wick I pretty much agree with.