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WrathOfHan

WrathOfHan's Controversial 2017 Box Office Predictions

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The Fifty Shades Darker prediction looks spot-on. I'm feeling no hype whatsoever for it, a stark contrast to the months leading up to Fifty Shades of Grey's release (and we've all seen how kindly sequels that lacked a must-see factor were treated this year).

 

A Cure for Wellness looks too weird to find mass appeal and lacks the instantly recognizable talent both in front and behind the camera like Shutter Island did. A total of about half of that ($30M) seems more accurate.

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March 3:

Before I Fall: A Groundhog Day-type mystery film, Before I Fall has nobody famous in the cast and releases the same weekend as one of the year’s biggest blockbusters. This will fail as counterprogramming. 3/6 (2x)

 

Leap!: You haven’t heard of this movie? Neither have I. This was actually put on the schedule a few days ago after Weinstein acquired it. This film will either be an indie critical darling or a gigantic mess. As I’ve mentioned numerous times before in this series, who knows if Weinstein will even release it on this date. It’s way too early to say how it will do. 3/9 (3x)

Logan: Logan is kicking off a March packed with blockbusters. After the shockingly great trailer released, expectations changed wildly. What was once a film some (myself included) doubted would make back its 130M budget domestically might now gross 100M on opening weekend! The trailer performed better than either of GOTG2’s trailers on YouTube and was on par with Wonder Woman’s second trailer, but it also couldn’t match Spider-Man Homecoming’s trailer views. GOTG will obviously gross more than Logan, but the trailers views have provided a solid range on what we can expect. I honestly believe 300M is in reach as well, but I’m not going that far. 110/275 (2.5x)

 

The Shack: The Shack is based off the bestselling Christian fiction novel of the same name and stars A-list actor Sam Worthington in a sure to be heartbreaking and emotional role.

funny laughing laugh nicolas cage nic cage

Laughs aside, this is the first film (excluding Gavin Stone) targeted towards Christian audiences in 2017. A War Room-type run wouldn’t surprise me. 12/50 (4.17x)

 

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15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

March 3:

 

 

Before I Fall: A Groundhog Day-type mystery film, Before I Fall has nobody famous in the cast and releases the same weekend as one of the year’s biggest blockbusters. This will fail as counterprogramming. 3/6 (2x)

 

 

 

 

 

Leap!: You haven’t heard of this movie? Neither have I. This was actually put on the schedule a few days ago after Weinstein acquired it. This film will either be an indie critical darling or a gigantic mess. As I’ve mentioned numerous times before in this series, who knows if Weinstein will even release it on this date. It’s way too early to say how it will do. 3/9 (3x)

 

 

Logan: Logan is kicking off a March packed with blockbusters. After the shockingly great trailer released, expectations changed wildly. What was once a film some (myself included) doubted would make back its 130M budget domestically might now gross 100M on opening weekend! The trailer performed better than either of GOTG2’s trailers on YouTube and was on par with Wonder Woman’s second trailer, but it also couldn’t match Spider-Man Homecoming’s trailer views. GOTG will obviously gross more than Logan, but the trailers views have provided a solid range on what we can expect. I honestly believe 300M is in reach as well, but I’m not going that far. 110/275 (2.5x)

 

 

 

 

 

The Shack: The Shack is based off the bestselling Christian fiction novel of the same name and stars A-list actor Sam Worthington in a sure to be heartbreaking and emotional role.

 

 

 

funny laughing laugh nicolas cage nic cage

Laughs aside, this is the first film (excluding Gavin Stone) targeted towards Christian audiences in 2017. A War Room-type run wouldn’t surprise me. 12/50 (4.17x)

 

 

 

Your Logan prediction is genius. Bravo sir, Bravo!:)

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March 10:

Kong: Skull Island: All hail the king. It’s been over 11 years since Peter Jackson released King Kong, and Warner Brothers is anxious to get their Godzilla shared universe rolling. Despite looking excellent, Kong: Skull Island hasn’t been generating much buzz. The Comic Con trailer performed well but wasn’t one of the day’s most buzzed trailers, and November’s trailer only has 4.3M views to date on YouTube. The weak trailer views and buzz online do not bode well for this film’s chances, and it’s sandwiched between Logan and Beauty and the Beast. I have a strong feeling this will be 2017’s Star Trek Beyond without the summer weekdays. Now, will I stan for this as much as Beyond? That remains to be seen. 60/140 (2.33x)

 

The Wall: No, this isn’t a Trump documentary; this is Doug Liman’s new real time war drama starring Aaron Taylor Johnson and John Cena. The Wall is also Amazon’s first release to go wide on opening weekend. The trailer has been performing decently for a movie of this size with 1.8M views on YouTube so far; it could be a surprise hit. 10/40 (4x)

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29 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, March looks like a summer month this year. Logan will make a bunch but not that much.

 

I agree.  Kong: Skull Island and Beauty and the Beast should help stop its momentum after it has its opening weekend.  Still, I am expecting Logan's opening weekend to do very well.  Anyway, we are nearly to the two weekends I really want to see WrathOfHan make predictions for in the first quarter of the year: March 17 and March 24.

Edited by Outrageous!
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I will be very honest: Deadpool proved that even the weirdest and unlikeliest of blockbusters can do killer business on OW, as long as the marketing campaign is good. Logan's marketing so far has been close to perfect. I wouldn't be shocked if it did make 100M OW.

 

That being said, rest assure that I'm not gonna be the 1st to express my self-inflicted disappointment either if it doesn't reach those heights.

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Logan will be happy to top $150m domestic. Honestly, I'm leaning more towards your Skull Island predict in terms of Logan's numbers. 

Skull Island might surprise us all. I don't think $200m is out of the question if it gets Godzilla-level reviews.

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1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I will be very honest: Deadpool proved that even the weirdest and unlikeliest of blockbusters can do killer business on OW, as long as the marketing campaign is good. Logan's marketing so far has been close to perfect. I wouldn't be shocked if it did make 100M OW.

 

That being said, rest assure that I'm not gonna be the 1st to express my self-inflicted disappointment either if it doesn't reach those heights.

 

The problem with Logan is that it's selling a movie with a tone that's completely opposite to Deadpool. I wholeheartedly agree it could easily be the best solo Wolverine movie. Plus the fact that it's Hugh Jackman's final hurrah as his iconic character. It just doesn't come off as the uber crowd pleaser Deadpool was in its marketing and final product. Not to mention it lacks the self-awareness. That'll affect its opening weekend.

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6 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

 

The problem with Logan is that it's selling a movie with a tone that's completely opposite to Deadpool. I wholeheartedly agree it could easily be the best solo Wolverine movie. Plus the fact that it's Hugh Jackman's final hurrah as his iconic character. It just doesn't come off as the uber crowd pleaser Deadpool was in its marketing and final product. Not to mention it lacks the self-awareness. That'll affect its opening weekend.

Yeah it's definitely a different type of marketing, maybe it'll be good for legs if reviews are great. But im not anticipating a huge opening.

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Just throwing this out there:

 

Logan DOM < Deadpool 4-Day OW ($152.2m)

 

Main justification: The franchise is getting worn out. I think it needs lots of hype for it to reach $275m, honestly.

Edited by fracfar
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1 minute ago, fracfar said:

Also, the last Wolverine film did ~180m DOM. The trailer for Logan is different though, and looks pretty good & well rounded. It could go over $250m if the reviews are good.

You're thinking of Origins; the last one was in the 130's IIRC

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