WrathOfHan's Controversial 2017 Box Office Predictions

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

 

Don't think moving it from a summer month to a non-summer month is necessarily encouraging. Not to mention, no trailer yet.

 

I imagine a trailer will arrive with Bastards. 

[Jay Beezy]

12 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

I imagine a trailer will arrive with Bastards. 

 

Not much marketing with that one either.

[WrathOfHan]

March 31:

The Boss Baby: This film looks like your generic, disposable kids flick. If this was made by Illumination, people would be orgasming all over this, but modern day Dreamworks doesn’t have that enthusiasm. Beauty and the Beast will still be drawing in family audiences, and I don’t even think this hits 100M. There’s a strong chance this is in the studio’s five lowest grossing films. 20/70 (3.5x)

 

 

 

Ghost in the Shell: Similar to Power Rangers, this trailer exploded online. Unlike Power Rangers, I think this is going to be a hit. Even though the whitewashing is a bit shady, GITS looks like a sleek sci-fi film we haven’t seen before. Add in the fans of the anime, and this could go places. It’ll also test Scarlett Johansson’s star power. This is her first headlining blockbuster since Lucy two and a half years ago, and she brought that film to great numbers. Can she repeat that success here? 35/105 (3x)

 

 

 

Step Sisters: Haven’t heard of this movie? Neither have I. It isn’t a Step Brothers spin-off, but instead it’s a dance comedy. It’s hard to predict its box office without a trailer, but given the lack of stars, I don’t think this will be a big grosser: 5/13 (2.6x)

 

 

 

The Zookeeper’s Wife: Poor Jessica Chastain. Miss Sloane was a monster bomb, and The Zookeeper’s Wife could very well follow a similar path if the reviews are mixed. I could see it being a mini-success because early April isn’t too crowded, but I definitely wouldn’t be surprised if it bombs. 10/30 (3x)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[YM!]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

March 31:

The Boss Baby: This film looks like your generic, disposable kids flick. If this was made by Illumination, people would be orgasming all over this, but modern day Dreamworks doesn’t have that enthusiasm. Beauty and the Beast will still be drawing in family audiences, and I don’t even think this hits 100M. There’s a strong chance this is in the studio’s five lowest grossing films. 20/70 (3.5x)

 

 

 

Ghost in the Shell: Similar to Power Rangers, this trailer exploded online. Unlike Power Rangers, I think this is going to be a hit. Even though the whitewashing is a bit shady, GITS looks like a sleek sci-fi film we haven’t seen before. Add in the fans of the anime, and this could go places. It’ll also test Scarlett Johansson’s star power. This is her first headlining blockbuster since Lucy two and a half years ago, and she brought that film to great numbers. Can she repeat that success here? 35/105 (3x)

 

 

 

Step Sisters: Haven’t heard of this movie? Neither have I. It isn’t a Step Brothers spin-off, but instead it’s a dance comedy. It’s hard to predict its box office without a trailer, but given the lack of stars, I don’t think this will be a big grosser: 5/13 (2.6x)

 

 

 

The Zookeeper’s Wife: Poor Jessica Chastain. Miss Sloane was a monster bomb, and The Zookeeper’s Wife could very well follow a similar path if the reviews are mixed. I could see it being a mini-success because early April isn’t too crowded, but I definitely wouldn’t be surprised if it bombs. 10/30 (3x)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Only because Illumination knows how to market a movie, but with Universal in charge Dreamworks may make big money that's to their marketing team.

[BadAtGender]

5 hours ago, CJohn said:

That would be just stupid lmao  

 

Episode 8 is doing 300/1B DOM, tho. 

It's worrisome that I look at a CJohn predict and go,  "Yeah, that's reasonable." 

[That One Girl]

Boss Baby got great reactions when I saw Sing.  Anecdotal, I know, but I think it could break out if the marketing is on point.

[WrathOfHan]

April 7:

The Case for Christ: This movie is so prestigious that it doesn’t even have a page on Wikipedia! It’s a Pure Flix joint and won’t be as high profile as The Shack, which could still be doing well going into April and Easter. This is the case for a flop. 3/6 (2x)

 

Going in Style: This looks exactly like the type of movie you’ll watch on HBO and go, “That was actually decent!” The film will appeal greatly to older audiences, and I’m expecting a run close to The Intern. 20/75 (3.75x)

 

Sleight: Sleight premiered at Sundance earlier this year and actually got decent reviews from the few critics who saw it. Could High Top have its first critical success and noteworthy film? Early 2017 has a lot of horror films, so it wouldn’t surprise me if audiences get overwhelmed with the number of choices. I’m expecting a run a little similar to The Witch. 8/24 (3x)

 

Smurfs: The Lost Village: I’ve been unfortunate to have seen the trailer for this movie twice: once by my own will and once when it was attached in theaters. The movie looks absolutely insufferable and potentially the worst kids film in a long time. Yes, even my dreaded Illumination doesn’t make movies that look THIS bad. I’m not sure if families even want another Smurfs movie. Beauty and the Beast will still be massive, and even though I don’t expect big numbers, The Boss Baby is releasing two weeks prior. This is probably going to fail. 15/50 (3.33x)

 

Wonder: This film has a lot of talent involved in the production, but I’m not sure if this will be able to stand out in a weekend with 5 wide releases. Lionsgate is releasing it, so they’re bound to fuck it up somehow. 10/30 (3x)

[That One Girl]

LMAO @ that smurfs prediction.

[Eevin]

Sony could care less about how much Smurfs makes domestically. The first one made $421m overseas, and the incredibly abhorrent second one still made $277m. As long as its reviews aren't worst-of-all-time level, I have a hard time seeing how The Lost Village doesn't do $300m+ worldwide.

It will flop in America for sure, though. 

I'm rooting for Wonder. I think it has potential given the talent involved, and the book it's based on is pretty popular and well-liked. $50m+ wouldn't surprise me, although it'll have to appeal beyond the kiddie base that Smurfs/BatB will be targeting.

[That One Girl]

Smurfs is hitting 100M.  My mom loves the original Smurfs cartoon, hated the live action ones, and thinks the new one looks really good.

[franfar]

2 hours ago, That One Guy said:

Boss Baby got great reactions when I saw Sing.  Anecdotal, I know, but I think it could break out if the marketing is on point.

Same with me. I thought the movie was going to bomb, but I think I was confusing it with Nine Lives. The trailer was funny.

 

However, the competition around is pretty good for kid's flicks. Power Rangers the week before (there's been huge attention on the YouTube trailers), Smurfs (which could bomb) the week after. So it's wedged between those movies. So, I would probably give it $120m, which is btwn Bee Movie and Peabody

[franfar]

1 hour ago, That One Guy said:

Smurfs is hitting 100M.  My mom loves the original Smurfs cartoon, hated the live action ones, and thinks the new one looks really good.

The Smurfs sequel did half of the original though...

[BadAtGender]

2 hours ago, That One Guy said:

Boss Baby got great reactions when I saw Sing.  Anecdotal, I know, but I think it could break out if the marketing is on point.

The forum tends to collectively underpredict DWA films, especially non-sequels. I won't be surprised if Boss Baby pulls in Home numbers. 

[YM!]

Smurfs or Boss Baby is hitting $100M domestic, but not both.

[franfar]

5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Smurfs or Boss Baby is hitting $100M domestic, but not both.

Smurfs is not making anywhere above $60m

[franfar]

6 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

The forum tends to collectively underpredict DWA films, especially non-sequels. I won't be surprised if Boss Baby pulls in Home numbers. 

They have a pretty good track record box office wise. Turbo made $83m ffs, and Home got $177m even with bad reviews

[YM!]

1 minute ago, fracfar said:

Smurfs is not making anywhere above $60m

From the animated movies I've seen in theaters both got decent responses (Moana audience ate up Smurfs trailer while Sing audience ate up Boss Baby trailer), I think either one of them will get to $100M, but not both of them.

[franfar]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

From the animated movies I've seen in theaters both got decent responses (Moana audience ate up Smurfs trailer while Sing audience ate up Boss Baby trailer), I think either one of them will get to $100M, but not both of them.

Moana is probably gonna do better than Sing, so I will lean towards Boss Baby

 

Smurfs' DOM went down by 50% between the two movies

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, fracfar said:

They have a pretty good track record box office wise. Turbo made $83m ffs, and Home got $177m even with bad reviews

DWA movies have been hit and miss at the domestic box office since Fox took over Distribution. Only 3 made over $150M, 2 under $100M, and the others barely (except Panda 3) made over $100M.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, fracfar said:

Moana is probably gonna do better than Sing, so I will lean towards Boss Baby

 

Smurfs' DOM went down by 50% between the two movies

I said the Sing audience ate up the Boss Baby trailer and the Moana audience ate up the Smurfs trailer. 

 

However I only see Smurfs making $100M+ if Boss Baby's marketing is crappy and vice versa.