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Olive

Predictions for 2018 movies(Hollywood or domestic)

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Movies that has 1B yuan potential:

Domestic:

Journey to the West 2(西遊伏妖篇) - 2.0~2.5B

Buddies in India(大鬧天竺) - 1.2~1.5B

Duckweed(乘風破浪) - 1.0~1.1B

Kung Fu Yoga(功夫瑜伽)- 800M~1B

Wukong(悟空傳)-800M~1B

The Thousand Faces of Dunjia(奇門遁甲)-1B

Hollywood:

Kong - 1B

Fast 8 - 2~2.5B

Guardians vol2 - 1.0~1.2B

Pirates 5 - 1.0~1.1B

Transformers 5 - 2.0~2.5B

War of Planet Apes - 900M~1B

SPIDER-MAN - 900M~1B

Dunkirk - 1B+

Mummy - ?

Thor: Ragnarok - ? 

 

Edited by Olive
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2 hours ago, Olive said:

Movies that has 1B yuan potential:

Domestic:

Journey to the West 2(西遊伏妖篇) - 2.0~2.5B

Buddies in India(大鬧天竺) - 1.2~1.5B

Duckweed(乘風破浪) - 1.0~1.1B

Kung Fu Yoga(功夫瑜伽)- 800M~1B

Wukong(悟空傳)-800M~1B

The Thousand Faces of Dunjia(奇門遁甲)-1B

Hollywood:

Kong - 1B

Fast 8 - 2~2.5B

Guardians vol2 - 1.0~1.2B

Pirates 5 - 1.0~1.1B

Transformers 5 - 2.0~2.5B

War of Planet Apes - 900M~1B

SPIDER-MAN - 900M~1B

Dunkirk - 1B+

Mummy - ?

Thor: Ragnarok - ? 

 

And T2?

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I'm curious as to your thoughts why Dunkirk is a potential 1B grosser in China. I know Hacksaw Ridge has done pretty well relatively, and Nolan's films have done pretty well in China historically, but outside of that, is there a hook here for Chinese audiences that will draw out a big crowd? (I'm not doubting your thoughts, I'm just curious if you had any insight on that)

Edited by MrPink
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TF5 - 2,500-3,000m

Fast 8 - 2,200-2,800m

Pirates 5 - 1,200-1,400m

GOTG2 - 1,050-1,200m

Apes Wars: Apes Force Awakens - 1,050-1,250m

The Mummy - 950-1,050m

Beauty & Beast - 900-1,050m

Rogue One - 750m-850m

Dunkirk - 750-850m

Spider-Mam: Homecoming - 725-800m

Thor 3 - 700-780m

Logan - 675-775m

Justice League - 650-700m

Kingsman - 625-700m

Kong - 600m-750m

xXx - 500-600m

WW - 550m-600m

DM3 - 450-550m

Arthur - 300-450m

Blade Runner - 250-400m

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3 hours ago, MrPink said:

I'm curious as to your thoughts why Dunkirk is a potential 1B grosser in China. I know Hacksaw Ridge has done pretty well relatively, and Nolan's films have done pretty well in China historically, but outside of that, is there a hook here for Chinese audiences that will draw out a big crowd? (I'm not doubting your thoughts, I'm just curious if you had any insight on that)

Firstly, you are right, Nolan’s films did well on both WOM and BO. 

Secondly, Nolan’s films are seen as one of the main standards of IQ test in China, and most people who dislike it don’t dare to express their negative opinions because they think it will make themselves look stupid(just like Emperor’s New Clothes). 

When Interstellar released, we ridiculed that fans were watching Nolan's film kneeling on the ground like God was coming.

 

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4 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

TF5 - 2,500-3,000m

Fast 8 - 2,200-2,800m

Pirates 5 - 1,200-1,400m

GOTG2 - 1,050-1,200m

Apes Wars: Apes Force Awakens - 1,050-1,250m

The Mummy - 950-1,050m

Beauty & Beast - 900-1,050m

Rogue One - 750m-850m

Dunkirk - 750-850m

Spider-Mam: Homecoming - 725-800m

Thor 3 - 700-780m

Logan - 675-775m

Justice League - 650-700m

Kingsman - 625-700m

Kong - 600m-750m

xXx - 500-600m

WW - 550m-600m

DM3 - 450-550m

Arthur - 300-450m

Blade Runner - 250-400m

Pirates 5 now is the most anticipated English films of 2017 on Douban(film fans website) and Maoyan(moviegoers website).

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Up-coming CNY release

 

JTTW2 : 2200 - 2600M

Buddie in India : 1100 - 1300M

Kung Fu Yoga : 1000 - 1200M

Duckweed : 800 - 1000M

The Game Changer : 500 - 700M

Cock Up A Storm : 300 - 500M

Booney Bear 4 : 250 - 350M

The Village With No Return : 150 - 250M

 

 

TF5 : 2000-2200M

FF8 : 1800 - 2000M

 

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Only Hollywood movies for me:

 

Kong: 600-700

Fast 8: 1800-2000

GotG2: 700-800

Pirates 5: 600-700

Wonder Woman: 500-600

Transformers 5: 1400-1600

Spiderman 6: 800-900

War Planet Apes: 800-900

Thor 3: 700-800

Justice League: 600-700

Ep8: 800-900

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6 minutes ago, MattW said:

Only Hollywood movies for me:

 

Kong: 600-700

Fast 8: 1800-2000

GotG2: 700-800

Pirates 5: 600-700

Wonder Woman: 500-600

Transformers 5: 1400-1600

Spiderman 6: 800-900

War Planet Apes: 800-900

Thor 3: 700-800

Justice League: 600-700

Ep8: 800-900

I am conscious that China has stopped its increase, but some figures seem low. IMO, I think both GotG2 and Pirates 5 will clear 1b and TF5 should reach 2b.

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12 minutes ago, WeneedtotalkaboutKevin said:

Sigh...BvS really sank the whole DCEU ship in China even though I personally liked it. For people living in China, do you think the Chinese will hate BvS enough that JL in china will gross less than BvS in china? Does LEGO Batman movie have a shot there? 

IMHO, BvS did a decent gross in China. Nothing to be ashamed of. It was coming from MOS's 394m Yuan. That means a 57% increase for BvS relative to MOS. Just for reference, Civil War has increased a 65% relative to Iron Man 3, which was released the same year than Man of Steel. Both increases are quite similar.

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19 hours ago, peludo said:

I am conscious that China has stopped its increase, but some figures seem low. IMO, I think both GotG2 and Pirates 5 will clear 1b and TF5 should reach 2b.

JL won’t do less than BvS. But I think Thor 3 will beat it

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The market is too cold so I'm going to be conservative with my estimates.

 

JTTW2 - 1.8B

Kung Fu Yoga - 900M

Duckweed - 800M

Buddies in India - 1.1B

Wukong - 600M

I think your estimate for The Miracle Fighters is too high. It's a 400M film at most IMO. And that's if their lucky. The latest movies of the leads except Dapeng haven't done well. The director also had a pretty recent flop.

City of Rock - 600M
 

T5 - 2B

F8 - 1.5B

 

Valerian will get a huge promo boost in China because a lot of the funding came from Chinese investors. Will probably make 1B.

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3 hours ago, Captain H said:

Gosh, I hope the Chinese investors whore Valerian out in China. Every single damn penny counts for it.

 

I hope China contribute enough so that Valerian is profitable worldwide.

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Too hard to make predictions about Western films in China until we see what Trump actually does in office. A trade war with China could have a devasting impact on Western films in China.

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3 hours ago, dudalb said:

Too hard to make predictions about Western films in China until we see what Trump actually does in office. A trade war with China could have a devasting impact on Western films in China.

 

Don't know what it will affect more, the Western boxoffice of the Chinese boxoffice, cause if china doesn't have imports the overall year total would surly go down.

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