Weekend Thread (Dec-30-Jan 2nd) 3/4-day #s R1 49.5m/64.3m, Sing 42.8m/56.4m, Pass 16.15m/20.7m, Moana 10.97m/14.3m, WH 10.6m/13m, Fences 10m/12.7m

[TalismanRing]

3 hours ago, Christmas Baumer said:

 

Yeah I did not like it that much. But my nieces loved it and so did their friends. It's not aimed at my age group. It's aimed at a completely different age group and the kids that you go to see it seems to love it. They have seemed to corner a kind of market with the kind of films that they're making. So it really doesn't matter what we think of it if their films are making money and the kids are loving it and why would they change their style film.

 

In terms of B.O. success there's absolutely no incentive for them change, no reason to.

 

Illumination though seems to want more respect and be an Awards player.  Otherwise, I have no idea why they premiered Sing at the TIFF.

 

 

[SWXII]

14 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Lol if only this could happen, even if there's only a 2% chance of it happening. Spoiler tag for length

 

http://kylesanimatedworld.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_19.html

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Opening Weekend: $270 million
Domestic Box Office: $964 million
Overseas Box Office: $1,655 million
Worldwide Box Office: $2,619 million

Star Wars: The Force Awakens was the very definition of a juggernaut... The very picture that everyone and their brother absolutely had to go and see, even people who don't hit the movies very often.

This has happened a lot of times in the movies... Spider-Man broke the opening weekend record in 2002 with a then-gargantuan $114 million and went on to make a then very rare $400 million stateside, and despite the fact that its sequel was superior in terms of quality, it ended up grossing roughly $30 million less stateside... Why did this happen? Simple. The first one had that "wow!" factor, it had that novelty factor, thus everyone - even your local grannie who barely ever takes a trip to the theater every 2-3 years - went. Spider-Man overperformed, hence Spider-Man 2's performance not matching it - still a great performance, though!

This had also happened with the original Star Wars trilogy. Again, the newness of it... The Empire Strikes Back is arguably the better film, but it didn't make as much. The original 1977 release of Star Wars - without any theatrical re-release totals added - sold the most tickets out of all the installments - 142 million, second place is The Force Awakens with 108 million.

On the Marvel front, it happened. The Avengers broke records and opened with $207 million, the final gross was an astounding $623 million. Avengers: Age of Ultron opened with $191 million, simply because that novelty wore off for some. Legs were mostly underwhelming, as the quality split audiences.

I originally thought that Episode VIII would do exceptional business, but would be nowhere near as big as it predecessor domestically. However, the untimely death of Carrie Fisher at the end of this year will most likely lead to a Dark Knight-esque performance, where everyone comes out to see the actress' final film. The same thing had happened to Furious 7, finished and released after the death of Paul Walker. That opened significantly higher than its predecessor, which was already the peak of the series in terms of the box office. That being said, The Force Awakens still made a ridiculous amount of money... How much higher can this film go at the domestic box office?

In terms of the opening weekend gross? Yes, I think it breaks the record. Domestic? Well, I think the legs will be good. The Force Awakens scored a 3.7x multiplier, most films that open with over $100 million don't get anything near a 3.0x multiplier. Star Wars is Star Wars, and it's also the holiday season, so I think the legs will be solid but not as strong as Force Awakens. Not because of quality or anything, but Force Awakens was one of those reality-bending performances. Episode VIII should be as well, but not to that agree, hence it missing $1 billion domestically...

The Dark Knight is a hard comparison to make because its predecessor, Batman Begins, didn't really do all that great to begin with. It opened softly, but had excellent legs that carried it past $200 million domestically. That one was a consistent home video hit. The Dark Knight's performance was astronomical in 2008. A better comparison is Furious 7. The previous film opened with $97 million, Furious 7 opened with $147 million. Legs? Can't say, both had the usual blockbuster legs.

So I'm thinking... A bigger opening, because of what has happened... But the finish will be close to the previous film, because again. How much higher can a Star Wars film go domestically? How high can any film go domestically right now?

 

 

Yeah, already people are spinning. 

 

VIII is going to break VII' s records for the same reason LOTR built up demand for one. Second, we likely get much more Luke. Favorable schedule also will help. All of these factors were in place so please don't spin otherwise for those who would be tempted to. I mean really, is there no class left?

[narniadis]

Yeah, the Christmas on Monday set up is always a great one - with boxing day on Tuesday it is literally like a 5-day weekend even more so than what we had this year. Add to that it pushes school returns by another day or two into the new year it sets things up well.

 

Conversely, the start to holiday weekdays is off by nearly a week so it all balances out.

[TommyA10]

26 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

E8 will do 800

 

I can feel it.

[SWXII]

28 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

E8 will do 800

 

I can feel it.

 

Might be a bit low.

[MrPink]

We need to dream a little bit bigger. Join the 300m OW/1 Billion @CJohn train

[cannastop]

2 hours ago, Spaghetti by the Sea said:

Also, I gotta say that the success of SLOP and Sing make Storks' underperformamce all the weaker. It's very much in the vein of cartoonish slapstick and fun (and does a better job of it, IMO) and barely sold more tickets than The Nut Job.

What can you say? It's a crapshoot.

Also, Summer rules.

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

What can you say? It's a crapshoot.

Also, Summer rules.

 

Summer didn't help Dragon 2.

 

There is also the difference of hundreds of millions spent to promote Illumination films with campaigns.  The Minions had a humongous $500m+ marketing campaign between studio expenses and all the cross promotional tie in deals.  They also started advertised Pets and Sing about a year in advance.

 

 

Edited January 1, 2017 by TalismanRing

[Jonwo]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

 

Summer didn't help Dragon 2.

 

There is also the difference of hundreds of millions spent to promote Illumination films with campaigns starting more than a year in advance.  The Minions had a humongous $500m+ marketing campaign between studio expenses and all the cross promotional tie in deals.  They also started advertised Pets and Sing about a year in advance.

 

Storks had a teaser 10 months before release as well but I think WB didn't have much faith in it hence the lack of big marketing whereas Lego Batman in comparison has had loads of trailers so far

[JonathanLB]

Considering (barring an especially poor weekend) I still believe Rogue One is on course for about $570M, I don't see Episode VIII doing less than $100M more than that, at the very worst. That means I think it's likely $700M+ anyway. 

 

This is the third Star Wars trilogy (obviously), and in the past, it has always been a significant dip between 1 and 2, which is what I was expecting here, but now I'm not so sure it'll be that severe. I am sure it'll be lower than TFA, but it may be more like 15% lower rather than 25-30% lower. 

 

I do think whatever you might say about TFA and pent-up demand and people going to movies who rarely go to movies, all of which is completely true, it's almost a bizarre supposition that after seeing a movie with almost universal acclaim and that was at least "fun" to almost anyone who saw it (even fans who grumble usually admit it was fun, they just were expecting more -- and they'll see more, in Episode VIII) and that ends on a cliff hanger, people will just kinda sit this one out. Especially considering it IS Carrie's last performance, it's also going to feature a bunch of Luke, which many people waited now 34 years to see after Return of the Jedi. We saw him for about a minute in TFA with no words, so suffice to say that didn't really quench anyone's desire for seeing Luke again. You combine just those two factors alone and you have the recipe for something that feels less like run-of-the-mill sequel box office performance and more like something special (again).

 

One has to imagine that the OW at least falls between Rogue One and TFA, and between those numbers is around $200M, which would still be down a good deal from TFA given some ticket price inflation, a greater number of IMAX and PLF theaters available (as was already the case for Rogue One), etc. A $200M opening with a favorable schedule and it's tough to imagine less than a 3.5x multiple over the holidays, thus $700M is maybe not a "conservative" estimate but it's certainly a realistic one. Pessimistic may be $175M against 3.25x multiple with meh reviews and meh word of mouth and a total of just below $570M. Kind of tough to imagine, that's about as pessimistic as it gets, really. Optimistic, sure, it could open to $240M and enjoy a 3.75x multiple for $900M. It could happen. I just wouldn't be expecting that, it's a way to get your hopes up too high.

 

Frankly I just want to see it win the year and set up the unlikeliest of all missions: Han Solo movie to top 2018, generate great reviews, great word of mouth, maybe a few other movies (ahem Avatar 2) underperform, and Han Solo wins the year, setting up the chance for a 5-year sweep with Episode IX.

[CJohn]

45 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

E8 will do 800

 

I can feel it.

Too low.

[Ruthie]

15 hours ago, DamienRoc said:

Pulling this from the Thursday thread, because it'll be archived soon.

 

 

I have to disagree with this. The two characters work together from a storytelling perspective in a way that wouldn't be possible if they had been combined, and they do so to serve a very important purpose: these are the characters through which the Force is viewed in the film.

 

(I'm going to try to keep this entirely spoiler free. If I stray to far, someone can spoiler tag it.)

 

If you take the bare plot of the film, it's actually something that could be told without any reference to the Force whatsoever. The Saga films are all about the Force. It's the primary motivation for the Skywalker clan stories, and as such, the characters are heavily steeped in it. The moments of Force skepticism come pretty much entirely from Han Solo in episode IV. After that, everyone's a believer, because everyone is around actual Force users. (This skepticism could have been revisited in TFA with Rey, but they didn't really do anything there, so when Han gives it "it's true, all of it" speech, it feels out of left field; he's arguing against something that isn't stated.)

 

So Rogue One could have been told without any Force reference, but because it's a large step removed, they actually had a great advantage: they can show what belief in the Force is like for people who don't experience it every day.

 

And thus we have Chirrut and Baze. They're paired characters, but they're done in terms of contrasts. We've got the blind and sighted. The believer and the skeptic. The monk and the soldier. Short and long hair. And so on and so forth. By doing the characters in this way, the film presents a dualistic view of the Force. Everything about Chirrut's fervent belief in the Force, and himself being part of it, is contrasted with Baze's disregard. But despite their fundamental differences, the two are partners, have a caring and close relationship, and shore up the other's shortcomings.

 

If you removed Baze from the equation, you'd still have Donnie Yen's badass Zaitoichi, yes, but he'd just be a believer with a few more action scenes, not a part of an active, philosophical dialogue. His faith in the Force needs that questioning presence. He would be considerably less interesting without Baze to provide that contrast. Adding a bit of didactic exposition to explain his character wouldn't be better.

In other words:  Baze was tremendous!

Edited January 1, 2017 by Ruthie
punctuation

[franfar]

Episode 8 will make $2.5 billion DOM /s

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, fracfar said:

Episode 8 will make $2.5 billion DOM /s

 

Yeah, that's too high, especially when Monster Trucks will make that on its Thursday previews.

[Arlborn]

Some people take animation way too seriously these days, jeez. Nothing wrong with making animation aimed at kids.

[junkshop36]

Luke playing a larger role and Carrie as Leia for the last time?

 

Yea, EP8 isn't doing less than 800m. I'm thinking 850-900 but wouldn't be surprised with more. 

[Lordmandeep]

Based on how big a deal the luke ending has become in SW7..and the reaction to the ending of Rogue One...

 

I think the interest to what role Luke will play will be a massive draw and course Carrie fishers last performance.

 

[miketheavenger]

Any reasonable prediction for Episode VIII is that it'll have a fairly large drop from TFA. However, this is still SW we're talking about, and it has been proven time and time again that this franchise follows its own rules (at least domestically). If any movie is going to buck the trend of a sequel to a megahit decreasing, it's gonna be Episode VIII. I still don't think it's going to happen, but you have to at least entertain the possibility.

[misafeco]

Happy New Year Everyone! 

[Porthos]

32 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:

Luke playing a larger role and Carrie as Leia for the last time?

 

Yea, EP8 isn't doing less than 800m. I'm thinking 850-900 but wouldn't be surprised with more. 

 

Well, it'd be hard for him to play a smaller role*...

 

* In terms of screentime that is.  In terms of importance to the plot, he was VERY important.

 

Though I do wonder if we're going to get some subverted expectations here. After all, this isn't Luke's story any more.  Compare/contrast Yoda in the prequels and Yoda in the OT.  If one watched SW from 1 to 6, one might have expected a kick ass Yoda to eventually appear and take center stage on the galaxy again.

 

Instead one got a wistful, slightly regretful Yoda whose main contributions to the plot were to try to get Luke's head screwed on straight.  Indeed, Yoda was only around to help further Luke's path.  Yoda's time in the spotlight was over.

 

I doubt they're going to go down a carbon copy road here with Luke and Yoda.  But I wouldn't be surprised at all if Luke doesn't have a single combat scene.  If he does, it's to get Obi-Waned by Kylo Ren.  And even that is more than a little predictable.

 

Maybe I'm wrong and Mark Hamill will have a near co-starring role like Harrison Ford did in TFA.  

 

But, I dunno.  Something tells me not to expect him to take narrative focus.  As I implied at the top, this trilogy is the story of Rey, Finn, and Kylo Ren (along with Poe Dameron and BB-8), not the story of Han, Luke, and Leia.

Edited January 1, 2017 by Porthos