Weekend Thread (Dec-30-Jan 2nd) 3/4-day #s R1 49.5m/64.3m, Sing 42.8m/56.4m, Pass 16.15m/20.7m, Moana 10.97m/14.3m, WH 10.6m/13m, Fences 10m/12.7m

[baumer]

1 minute ago, FilmBuff said:

Everything will drop with the college football playoffs tomorrow.

 

Its NYE.

Everything will drop for sure.

[baumer]

No bigger than normal imo.

[terrestrial]

next long range forecast from bo.com is up

 

Spoiler

Quote

Check out the official Boxoffice Pro long range forecast in the table below.

Title	Wide Release Date	Distributor	Opening Weekend	Cumulative
Rock Dog	Fri, Feb 24	Lionsgate	$20,000,000	$56,000,000
Get Out	Fri, Feb 24	Universal
The Great Wall	Fri, Feb 17	Universal	$34,000,000*	$68,000,000
Fist Fight	Fri, Feb 17	Warner Bros.	$25,000,000*	$63,000,000
A Cure For Wellness	Fri, Feb 17	Fox	$13,500,000*	$35,000,000
Patient Zero	Fri, Feb 17	Sony / Columbia	$8,500,000*	$19,000,000
Fifty Shades Darker	Fri, Feb 10	Universal	$41,000,000	$83,000,000
The LEGO Batman Movie	Fri, Feb 10	Warner Bros.	$56,000,000	$210,000,000
John Wick: Chapter Two	Fri, Feb 10	Lionsgate	$20,000,000	$45,000,000
Rings	Fri, Feb 3	Paramount	$19,000,000	$45,000,000
The Space Between Us	Fri, Feb 3	STX Entertainment	$7,000,000	$20,000,000
Same Kind of Different as Me	Fri, Feb 3	Paramount	$4,500,000	$12,000,000
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter	Fri, Jan 27	Sony / Screen Gems	$24,000,000	$52,000,000
A Dog’s Purpose	Fri, Jan 27	Universal	$16,000,000	$65,000,000
Bastards	Fri, Jan 27	Warner Bros.	$8,000,000	$22,000,000
Gold	Fri, Jan 27	Weinstein Company	$7,000,000	$22,000,000
xXx: The Return of Xander Gage	Fri, Jan 20	Paramount	$32,000,000	$72,000,000
Split	Fri, Jan 20	Universal	$16,000,000	$45,000,000
The Founder	Fri, Jan 20	Weinstein	$9,500,000	$39,000,000
The Resurrection of Gavin Stone	Fri, Jan 20	High Top Releasing	$1,400,000	$3,000,000
Live By Night	Fri, Jan 13	Warner Bros.	$15,000,000*	$35,000,000
Patriots Day	Fri, Jan 13	Lionsgate	$23,500,000*	$78,000,000
Sleepless	Fri, Jan 13	Open Road Films	$13,000,000*	$42,000,000
Monster Trucks	Fri, Jan 13	Paramount	$12,000,000*	$22,000,000
The Bye Bye Man	Fri, Jan 13	STX Entertainment	$8,000,000*	$17,000,000
Underworld: Blood Wars	Fri, Jan 6	Sony / Screen Gems	$17,000,000	$42,000,000
Amityville: The Awakening	Fri, Jan 6	Weinstein / Dimension	$8,000,000	$17,000,000
Hidden Figures	Fri, Jan 6	Fox	$11,000,000	$43,000,000

*= 4-day weekend, Friday-Monday, referring to Martin Luther King Day in January or Presidents Day in February.

 

 

[baumer]

I see Patriot Games is going the way of Zero Dark Thirty. Jingoism in.a fairy tale world.

[Jake Gittes]

Oof at most of those predictions.

[m3racer123]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

next long range forecast from bo.com is up

 

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They seem to have underestimated Lego Batman a bit, and there's no way xXx is getting a 32m OW! There's a chance it makes less than that in total (like Last Witch Hunter).

[4815162342]

1 minute ago, Christmas Baumer said:

I see Patriot Games is going the way of Zero Dark Thirty. Jingoism in.a fairy tale world.

 

It will meet the same fate as the rest of the competition, courtesy of the Singing Rogue One

 

Spoiler

 

[elcaballero]

4 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

I see Patriot Games is going the way of Zero Dark Thirty. Jingoism in.a fairy tale world.

Great movie. 

[WrathOfHan]

Rock Dog

Fri, Feb 24

Lionsgate

$20,000,000

$56,000,000

 

 

[That One Girl]

ROCK DOG: 56M DOMESTIC GROSSER.  COME SEE IT.

[POTUS 2020]

5 hours ago, Jayhawk said:

That's a lot of crack!

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, POTUS said:

 

wtf.

[POTUS 2020]

R1 needs to get to 520m to be the number one movie in the world in one market. 

Mermaid in china did that in February.

Shouldn't be a problem unless deadlines low end is right for a change. 

[JonathanLB]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

http://variety.com/2016/film/box-office/rogue-one-box-office-new-years-1201950454/

 

Variety 4 Day

 

Rogue: $60m
Sing: $50m
Passengers: $20m
Moana: $18m
La La Land: $12m

 

Variety seems to be on the same low track for Rogue as Deadline.   The Moana # is also an eye opener for opposite reasons. 

 

 

 

 

Ok this is the same "industry trade publication" that I use to hold as The Bible of All Industry News that wrote, and I quote this part exactly, that Rogue One would make "as much as $115 million" over the holiday period, which they were defining as 6-days from Wednesday through Monday. The movie made $127M over that period of time, and I wrote a comment on their article too and said, didn't you mean at least $115 million? It was ridiculous.

 

Also please tell me, or show me, how it makes $60M over 4 days. I have to see this one. So it averages $15M per day? Uhh...

 

Friday: $17M

Saturday: $13M

Sunday: $16M

Monday: $14M

 

Like that? I mean why would Friday suck so badly compared to Tuesday when the night shows Friday should be way busier? I don't think any more people had Tuesday off than have Friday off, frankly, and if you worked all week then you probably don't work Saturday, which means Friday night shows are much busier. It just doesn't make any sense. Historical drops for New Years Eve aren't too bad either, they're not Xmas Eve, they're like 15-20% maybe. It's hard for me to see lower than a $20M Friday and frankly I'm comfortable saying if it is lower than that, it's a bad number. Rogue One has had some great days (Monday and Tuesday) and some disappointing days (last Sunday), but in the end it has found a way to have a pretty awesome run. I don't see Friday being one of those disappointing days. I see $20M to $23M Friday.

[Eevin]

37 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

next long range forecast from bo.com is up

 

 

Those are some truly terrible predictions. 

Hidden Figures has a better chance of making $30m+ next weekend than it does $11m. 

[JonathanLB]

PS: I got my Rogue One tickets for my Los Angeles business trip next week. I'm so excited. 7 p.m. Tuesday at TCL Chinese Theater Laser IMAX, then 8 p.m. Thursday at AMC CityWalk 19 70mm 2D IMAX. I have never seen a movie like that before, so it's going to be pretty sweet I think. Of all my TFA viewings, the best by far was at the Chinese in mid-January. I had seen it a lot of times by that point but it was so incredible on that massive screen.

 

My local theaters are what people here would call LIEMax. I mean, I still think it sounds fantastic, they do a great job of making sure those sound systems are kick-ass even in a smaller auditorium than "true IMAX," but the screen clearly doesn't compare to world class theaters like Los Angeles has. 

 

One day, eventually, I think it'd be a fun "bucket list" thing to see a Star Wars movie in every famous theater at least once. Or maybe any movie at least once. I saw The Thin Red Line at the Ziegfeld when I was in New York many many years ago. I've never been to the Metreon before, though, that one is on my list too. I've hit up most of the L.A. area theaters like the various ArcLights, the AMC Burbank 30 just for the size of the theater, L.A. Live's flagship Regal (my old neighborhood, so I walked there), but never went to El Capitan either or The Egyptian. 

[Incarnadine]

54 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

next long range forecast from bo.com is up

 

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That is a terrible projected multiplier for John Wick, just 2.25x its opening weekend?

[miketheavenger]

Yeah, I'm not buying those RO numbers, but imagine if they would be true, @MovieMan89 would be dancing in the streets. Don't see it Hhppening, though. Fully expect it to be 20m+.

[grey ghost]

Maybe if today was NYE those RO numbers would make sense.

[JonathanLB]

It just doesn't make too much logical sense, though. So the demand for Rogue One somehow just died out basically between Monday and Tuesday and Friday? Friday is going to be the lowest or nearly the lowest day of the week Tuesday - Friday? That seems pretty unlikely to me. There's nothing special going on tonight, no major TV event, no big game, that's going to hurt Friday compared to Tuesday. I just don't see it. In a perfectly logical world Friday would be an increase over Tuesday's $22M, but maybe an unexpected number of people were off Tuesday and somehow worked Friday? I don't know anyone like that, personally. Most people I know were either off all week or worked both Tuesday and Friday. I think it'd be more likely to take off Friday since you already just had a long weekend, so I can see some people taking another long weekend this time.