Weekend Thread (Dec-30-Jan 2nd) 3/4-day #s R1 49.5m/64.3m, Sing 42.8m/56.4m, Pass 16.15m/20.7m, Moana 10.97m/14.3m, WH 10.6m/13m, Fences 10m/12.7m

[That One Girl]

13 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

You may be surprised to here this but I think the 900m dom of TFA is untouchable for now, it had too much hype coming in, as long as it was serviceable it would make the $$$. It honestly in my opinion takes away from the achievement of 900m that the quality of the film was never going to impact the gross. In hindsight JJ was a perfect pick to direct it, he always makes alright adaptations, nothing spectacular ever though.

 

However.

 

1000m NEW DOM CHIMA

800m US AND CANADA

1700m OS (WITHOUT US AND CANADA)

3500m WW

 

Why the fuck would China reach its first 1B movie far before America?

[IronJimbo]

As for Avatar's 6 months in China I'm aware the limit is one month, due to Avatar's environmental message and China's recent obsession with being green, they will extend the time for Avatar. This is my ultimate prediction please screen shot.

[SteveJaros]

Just wanna know if Disney reached $3B DOM .... Need actuals for the weekend. 

[m3racer123]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

As for Avatar's 6 months in China I'm aware the limit is one month, due to Avatar's environmental message and China's recent obsession with being green, they will extend the time for Avatar. This is my ultimate prediction please screen shot.

 

The Mermaid, China's highest grossing film, was done within two months. Even if Avatar gets 6 months in theaters, no one will be going to see it after 2 months.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, m3racer123 said:

 

The Mermaid, China's highest grossing film, was done within two months. Even if Avatar gets 6 months in theaters, no one will be going to see it after 2 months.

Sure, I meant the time allowed will be much longer, not that it will stay in Cinema for the full time.

 

but it could

 

[The Panda]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Please make this my highest liked post! I think 6 is my record.

 

Lol, that's weak.  I expected more from you.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

As for Avatar's 6 months in China I'm aware the limit is one month, due to Avatar's environmental message and China's recent obsession with being green, they will extend the time for Avatar. This is my ultimate prediction please screen shot.

 

I think six months in China is about as likely as your R1 330 DOM predicition.

 

On November 30, 2016 at 8:40 PM, IronJimbo said:

 

Rouge One will make about 550m WW with 60% of that coming from USA&Canada

 

[4815162342]

21 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I think you are fine without watching that 

 

I did like BvS though...

[IronJimbo]

@Porthos I thought R1 would suck but the film was ok! The trailer was garbage. "I rebel"

[PPZVGOS]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Have you factored in where you expect the value of the US dollar to be in Dec 2018 (if it makes that release date)?

 

My guess is that the USD will be lower than it is today. 

 

http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/historical.png?s=DXY&v=20170102211500&d1=19170101&d2=20171231&trend=2

[CJohn]

4 minutes ago, 4815162342 said:

 

I did like BvS though...

I liked it too, and even if the UC fleshes out the characters and expands a few subplots a bit, I am not sure if it is worth your time.

[YM!]

26 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

You may be surprised to here this but I think the 900m dom of TFA is untouchable for now, it had too much hype coming in, as long as it was serviceable it would make the $$$. It honestly in my opinion takes away from the achievement of 900m that the quality of the film was never going to impact the gross, as long as it wasn't dumpster fire garbage. In hindsight JJ was a perfect pick to direct it, he always makes meh/ok adaptions.

 

However.

 

1000m NEW DOM CHINA (6 months in Cinema heard it here first)

800m US AND CANADA

1700m OS (WITHOUT US AND CANADA)

3500m WW

1.) This isn't reaching either $3B WW or $1B in China, the range is $1.8B-$2.5B

2.) It seems like to decrease in America due to competition and the 3D rage is gone in December 2018 (if released) with a range of $550M-$700M. Mortal Engines could be big ($300M+), Animated Spidey should do Lego Movie numbers and Mary Poppins Returns will do about $200M.

3.) Have you estimated what the exchange rates in 2018?

 

Edited January 2, 2017 by YourMother

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

@Porthos I thought R1 would suck but the film was ok! The trailer was garbage. "I rebel"

 

Now now, do you REALLY want me to pull up some of the quotes from the R1 under 450 thread?  Or even the OW thread where, and it was obvious you were joking here, you kept raising the final DOM total as the OW went on?

 

Even a 'sucky' R1 should have gotten more than a 2x multiplier in the Xmas season, after all.  

 

 

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

1.) This isn't reaching either $3B WW or $1B in China, the range is $1.8B-$2.5B

2.) It seems like to decrease in America due to competition and the 3D rage is gone in December 2018 (if released) with a range of $550M-$700M. Mortal Engines could be big ($300M+), Animated Spidey should do Lego Movie numbers and Mary Poppins Returns will do about $200M.

3.) Have you estimated what the exchange rates in 2018?

 

My turn for screen shots.

 

[YM!]

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

My turn for screen shots.

 

I could be wrong but at the same time I don't care. I loved Avatar, R1, and TFA. Avatar was my first 3D experience at the movies. If it (A2) does by some chance does $3B, I'd be happy for it. I could care less if it did $1.5B or $5B, I'd still see it. All of the movies including A2 in December 2018 could flop, it doesn't matter as long as I love those films.

Edited January 2, 2017 by YourMother

[IronJimbo]

Just now, YourMother said:

I could be wrong but at the same time I don't care. I loved Avatar, R1, and TFA. Avatar was my first 3D experience at the movies. If it (A2) does by some chance does $3B, I'd be happy for it. I could care less if it did $1.5B or $5B, I'd still see it.

I'm not targeting you but I think Porthos did give me a good idea, I'm going to collect screenshots. It's in good fun and just makes it cooler for me when Avatar 2 demolishes the box office as I think it will.

 

One think for certain is that Avatar 2 will be a great film, so rejoice.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I could be wrong but at the same time I don't care. I loved Avatar, R1, and TFA. Avatar was my first 3D experience at the movies. If it (A2) does by some chance does $3B, I'd be happy for it. I could care less if it did $1.5B or $5B, I'd still see it. All of the movies including A2 in December 2018 could flop, it doesn't matter as long as I love the film.

 

2.5b is also a metric ass ton of money, no matter what the exchange rate is.

 

Personally, I tend to think this would be James Cameron's reaction to 'only' getting 2.5b for Avatar 2:

 

 

(especially when one consideres the context of that scene in Zombieland )

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm not targeting you but I think Porthos did give me a good idea, I'm going to collect screenshots. It's in good fun and just makes it cooler for me when Avatar 2 demolishes the box office as I think it will.

 

One think for certain is that Avatar 2 will be a great film, so rejoice.

 

[BadAtGender]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

*grits teeth*

 

*recs for accuracy of THAT statement, if not the implications or the cause of it* 

Weirdly, we might not see the dollar get weaker, even if Trump tanks the economy. The situation elsewhere is also bad, so there might be a case where the dollar is stronger in relative terms. 

[TommyA10]

53 minutes ago, m3racer123 said:

 

But Rogue One tickets will also be a bit higher than the average price so that should balance itself out?

Well, RO will make what it does in real dollars so no point in adjusting it. The point is, adjusting SW prequels by using the average ticket price is plain wrong considering the percentage of IMAX, 3D, 4D etc. tickets TFA/RO manged is immeasurably higher than the average movie of 2015/16. (Average price for RO/TFA is probably $9.5+ compared to the average of $8.6)...

Not that I would mind RO making as much money as possible