Weekend Thread (Dec-30-Jan 2nd) 3/4-day #s R1 49.5m/64.3m, Sing 42.8m/56.4m, Pass 16.15m/20.7m, Moana 10.97m/14.3m, WH 10.6m/13m, Fences 10m/12.7m

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

Well, RO will make what it does in real dollars so no point in adjusting it. The point is, adjusting SW prequels by using the average ticket price is plain wrong considering the percentage of IMAX, 3D, 4D etc. tickets TFA/RO manged is immeasurably higher than the average movie of 2015/16. (Average price for RO/TFA is probably $9.5+ compared to the average of $8.6)...

Not that I would mind RO making as much money as possible  

 

Checking BOM (and not including re-releases):

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Est. Tickets / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	Star Wars	Fox	142,734,000	1,750	697,100	43	5/25/77
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	108,115,100	4,134	28,501,900	4,134	12/18/15
3	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace	Fox	84,825,800	3,126	12,760,000	2,970	5/19/99
4	Return of the Jedi	Fox	80,983,400	1,764	7,307,800	1,002	5/25/83
5	The Empire Strikes Back	Fox	78,862,200	1,278	1,825,500	126	5/21/80
6	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	Fox	59,324,600	3,663	16,916,700	3,661	5/19/05
7	Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones	Fox	52,012,300	3,161	13,774,200	3,161	5/16/02
8	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	51,670,400	4,157	18,223,500	4,157	12/16/16

 

 

It should pass AotC in tickets sold, no matter how they're figured out.

 

RotS?  Time will tell.  At least that one can have a lot more arguments in either direction on that one.

Edited January 2, 2017 by Porthos

[IronJimbo]

21 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

 

4b ww, critics paid by disney.

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, robertman2 said:

Don't movies only get like two months in China?

Usually 1 month, but depending on.... sometimes a film can get an extension

 

China is far more what in dom would be called frontloaded in general = not a sign for being frontloaded there.

To prepare for later in the month

 

The release schedule.... there is not that good for SW R1 IMHO. And some other details why I do not expect as much as some others here in dom.

 

I think some dom orientated members are not aware about 'usually'/often... an established franchise or else-wise ww well known new instalment has nowadays an dom : OS ratio of 1:2 (roughly one third dom,...)

SW 7 had ~ 45% dom, ~ 55% OS

A spin-of... drop was in my POV to be expected to be extremer in OS than in the US, where SW is far more anchored in the GA then elsewhere. A flip in the split to dom more than OS... would not surprise me at all, what would surprise me is, if it would not happen. Counting only if China will behave as expected per pre-sales, release dates, competition,...

China beforehand = I'll never 'know' (who knows / knows for sure... beforehand anything anyway?), China unexpectedly exploding... all guesses are of.

 

Edited January 2, 2017 by terrestrial

[TommyA10]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Checking BOM (and not including re-releases):

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Est. Tickets / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	Star Wars	Fox	142,734,000	1,750	697,100	43	5/25/77
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	108,115,100	4,134	28,501,900	4,134	12/18/15
3	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace	Fox	84,825,800	3,126	12,760,000	2,970	5/19/99
4	Return of the Jedi	Fox	80,983,400	1,764	7,307,800	1,002	5/25/83
5	The Empire Strikes Back	Fox	78,862,200	1,278	1,825,500	126	5/21/80
6	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	Fox	59,324,600	3,663	16,916,700	3,661	5/19/05
7	Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones	Fox	52,012,300	3,161	13,774,200	3,161	5/16/02
8	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	51,670,400	4,157	18,223,500	4,157	12/16/16

 

 

It should pass AotC in tickets sold, no matter how they're figured out.

 

RotS?  No, probably not. At least that one can have a lot more arguments in either direction.

That's the issue really. What they do at BOM (and there really is no other way of doing it unfortunately cause there is no info on actual tickets sold) is simply divide the gross by the average ticket price. TFA and RO most certainly didn't (on average) cost $8.6, considering the very high percentage of IMAX, 3D etc. tickets. RO probably sold 45m-ish tickets so far (Maybe even less since the % of pricey tickets is even higher the closer you are to the OW). 

But yeah, it will certainly pass AOTC, but not ROTS (which shouldn't have been expected in the first place)...

[baumer]

So internationally Rogue one is doing what I thought it would do domestically. It's behaving with the same rationale that I thought it would here. Oh well at least I was sort of kind of somewhat right LOL

 

And is it really so-called embarrassing if Rogue1 only finishes with a billion dollars LOL. This is after all a spin-off of the main story.

[TameImpaler]

15 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

4b ww, critics paid by disney.

 

If disney were to hypothetically pay off critics, it would be to the benefit of avatar. They benefit from avatar doing well as it's in their interest (Disney's Animal Kingdom) 

[DealWithIt]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

 

You may be surprised to here this but I think the 900m dom of TFA is untouchable for now, it had too much hype coming in, as long as it was serviceable it would make the $$$. It honestly in my opinion takes away from the achievement of 900m that the quality of the film was never going to impact the gross, as long as it wasn't dumpster fire garbage. In hindsight JJ was a perfect pick to direct it, he always makes meh/ok adaptions.

 

However.

 

1000m NEW DOM CHINA (6 months in Cinema heard it here first)

800m US AND CANADA

1700m OS (WITHOUT US AND CANADA)

3500m WW

 

Of course the quality of the movie impacted the box office. If it had been a turd along the lines of the prequels, it would've had a huge opening weekend followed by a rather quick drop off. Make its money until the New Year and then crater the moment kids went back to school. TFA is a fantastic blockbuster and signaled the return of really good Star Wars movies. I know the internet likes to pretend it wasn't a good movie and that the prequels weren't really that bad, but it actually was and they really were bad. TFA did so well because word of mouth was through the roof positive.

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, DealWithIt said:

 

Of course the quality of the movie impacted the box office. If it had been a turd along the lines of the prequels, it would've had a huge opening weekend followed by a rather quick drop off. Make its money until the New Year and then crater the moment kids went back to school. TFA is a fantastic blockbuster and signaled the return of really good Star Wars movies. I know the internet likes to pretend it wasn't a good movie and that the prequels weren't really that bad, but it actually was and they really were bad. TFA did so well because word of mouth was through the roof positive.

 

TFA wasn't epic, it wasn't spectacular and it didn't have something special that something special that the highest grossing DOM film should have.

[JonathanLB]

6 minutes ago, DealWithIt said:

 

Of course the quality of the movie impacted the box office. If it had been a turd along the lines of the prequels, it would've had a huge opening weekend followed by a rather quick drop off. Make its money until the New Year and then crater the moment kids went back to school. TFA is a fantastic blockbuster and signaled the return of really good Star Wars movies. I know the internet likes to pretend it wasn't a good movie and that the prequels weren't really that bad, but it actually was and they really were bad. TFA did so well because word of mouth was through the roof positive.

 

Of course except the problem with your argument is you only apply personal bias and no actual logic. Since the prequels were very well received, they had good to amazing staying power. So either you acknowledge that fact or you acknowledge your personal opinion doesn't line up with the majority (here's a hint: it's the latter one). TPM opened with $64 million and went on to a final of $431.1M. It was one of the leggiest blockbusters of all time among large openers. The word of mouth was fantastic which is why it played for months and months and kept doing well.

Edited January 2, 2017 by JonathanLB

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

And is it really so-called embarrassing if Rogue1 only finishes with a billion dollars LOL. This is after all a spin-off of the main story.

 

Not in the slightest, especially where the US Dollar is right now.

 

Be interesting to see just how it does in South Korea and China.

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, JB33 said:

 

Yikes. I know Star Wars has always been more of a domestic thing but I at least figured Rogue One would challenge Captain America: Civil War in terms of OS gross. 

 

It seems that Civil War is a 80% Avengers, while Rogue one is a 60% Main series.

[That One Girl]

12 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

TFA wasn't epic, it wasn't spectacular and it didn't have something special that something special that the highest grossing DOM film should have.

 

Thanks for stating your opinion.  The majority disagrees, however.

[ldb]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

Rogue One will make less than FB internationally. Might have to crawl over 500m internationally. Apparently only on track to make 60m in China which is awful! 

 

lulz.  No.  

[DAR]

I always love it when people constantly quote people I have on ignore

[SWXII]

2 minutes ago, DAR said:

I always love it when people constantly quote people I have on ignore

 

The ignore function is a 'gateway drug' on a path to book burning. 

[hw64]

10 minutes ago, ldb said:

lulz.  No.  

 

What tremendous insight.

[FantasticBeasts]

I feel like the main problem of the SW franchise is Asia. Those european numbers are great almost everywhere but the asian markets are lukewarm. (TFA had some great numbers in China and Japan but seeing RO I am not sure if it will continue to do well there).

P.S.: Just to strengthen my point, someone made a comparison with Fantastic Beasts. It is indeed true that RO will most probably fall short of FB's OS total which will likely end up at about 570m. But FB did 85m in China, is expected to do 65-70m in Japan +33m from Korea. That's combined almost 190m. If RO had similar numbers in Asian markets, it would have cleared 600m OS with ease...

Edit: That's not to say that SW has any kind of problem overall but those Asian numbers could certainly improve..

Edited January 2, 2017 by FantasticBeasts

[NCsoft]

24 minutes ago, DealWithIt said:

 

Of course the quality of the movie impacted the box office. If it had been a turd along the lines of the prequels, it would've had a huge opening weekend followed by a rather quick drop off. Make its money until the New Year and then crater the moment kids went back to school. TFA is a fantastic blockbuster and signaled the return of really good Star Wars movies. I know the internet likes to pretend it wasn't a good movie and that the prequels weren't really that bad, but it actually was and they really were bad. TFA did so well because word of mouth was through the roof positive.

 

I think it is more "perceived quality" in North America which made all the difference, TFA's perceived quality in other parts of the world varies greatly from here. How much people liked it seemed to basically depends on how strong the nostalgia factor of that specific market, in a way, people outside of NA may have a more objective view toward the quality of TFA. 

Don't underestimate the power of " The old SW that we loved is back", whether that is a true testament of quality, or just a collective regressive behavior in the name of nostalgia, I don't know.

[ohmigod2005]

22 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

I'm glad you're happy. I'm with Baumer, though, Fantastic Beasts was a terrible movie. It would have been one thing if it was merely mediocre, but it was actually a flat-out awful film all around. It out-bores the boring awards movies and at least those movies have something to say about the world, to some extent. I couldn't be happier that in the U.S. Fantastic Beasts was mostly a non-event. I don't wish the movie ill, but it's a movie, it doesn't have feelings. I wish PEOPLE well, and I hate to see people go waste their hard-earned money and time on such a godawful piece of shit as Fantastic Beasts. So much suffering, you think about 10 million people wasting 3 hours of their life seeing that movie and driving to and from the theater, it's heartbreaking, really.

Wow, so much wrong with this: 

1) this was not a non event in the US, plain and simple. This is Rowling we're talking about here, and the film is tracking to about 240 mil.

2) I damn hope you have never praised a marvel film or a Star Wars film in your life, to be honest, because civil war, and really almost every single marvel film, have been terrible films driven solely by action. Sorry that's what you wanted and didn't get. 

3) Fantastic Beasts, and the rest of the Wizarding World brand, is sophisticated and creative in ways your fave superhero brands or Star Wars franchise is/are not. Those are light entertainment made to sell toys. I could not for the life of me even begin to comprehend how Civil War and Rogue One were anything but cute, toy selling mindless action films. They're always the same and they only take some risks, if any. Fantastic Beasts has pretty great acting, a complex and compelling story, amazing, huge-scale production design, a beautiful score, great costume and lighting design...Disney franchises typically go for loud childish bombast or nothing. 

4) What Disney blockbusters have officially done is taken character away from film. The plot drives them and everyone cares about the characters because of what they do, even narrowing it down to how they move and what bad guys they defeat. A number of people on this forum obviously have been trained to not be able to sit through any form of cerebral/emotional/psychological character driven moments whatsoever, which again, are few and far between in franchises and branded entertainment today. Except in The Wizarding World. Which is why it's been shunned by so many tough acting 40+ year old man-babies

5) The films and books in Rowling's brand are about the only commercially viable piece of entertainment that gets dark, tragic, and takes risks, and says a lot, about war, murder, loss, coming of age, repression, discrimination, bigotry, Capitol punishment, depression, hatred, fear, losing innocence, education interference, political corruption, and spirituality, among many other things. Fantastic Beasts and Potter are some of the only effortlessly sophisticated, morally and thematically mature pieces of branded entertainment in Hollywood today, to a reasonable extent, and it absolutely pissess me off that they're constantly dissed and patronized by 30 year old man-babies who love to play with their Disney Store(TM) toys and eat that SW branded GoGurt and try to mask their far more infantile obsessions with Lamentations on how "stupid and kiddie Potter is" and how "Star Wars is so Shakespearean". Ohmygodshutthefuckup. Shutthefuckup. Shutthefuckup. Star Wars is so light in comparison and young skewing in comparison as well I don't know why I have to fight with these people. 

 

And of course, when patronization doesn't work, they just opaquely trash it (^you my friend) and continue to act like its a Transformers sequel or something, and it isn't the highest grossing franchise, highest selling book series, and second most expensive entertainment brand in the world with far more consistent critical acclaim than Star Wars or Middle Earth. Jesus, get over yourselves. 

Edited January 2, 2017 by ohmigod2005

[NCsoft]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

What tremendous insight.

 

Indeed, too much faith in SW can sometimes help distort the reality...