BOT User Tracking 1/6-1/8 Hidden Figures (wide), Monster Calls (wide), Underworld

[Wrath]

Just a smidgen more interesting than last week.

 

I'm a little behind on the last couple weeks thanks to holiday travel and hangovers, but I'll catch up this week.

 

Please provide your 1/6-8 Three-Day Opening Weekend predicts for, 

 

Hidden Figures (wide)

Monster Calls (wide)

Underworld

 

Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

[Alli]

Hidden Figures - 17

Underworld -10

Monster Calls -2

Edited January 3, 2017 by Alli

[DAJK]

Monster Calls - $2.35M

Underworld - $14.6M

Hidden Figures - $21.3M

[TwoMisfits]

I'm most confident about Hidden Figures.  With 2300 screens, I think this opens like Arrival with a little less due to already being open in a few places.  I have much less confidence on the other 2 (although another bad sequel just doesn't seem like it will sell and the kid/monster movie seems ill-timed with Sing and even Moana still grooving at the Box Office - if it released another time, I could see a higher open, but with only 1800 rumored screens or so, it's gonna struggle, although I'm a little more optimistic than previous posters - if it gets less screens, I'd drop my estimate)...

 

UPDATE 1/4: Now only 1500 screens for Monster Calls, so 1/6 less than originally planned...gotta drop my estimate by the same %...

 

Hidden Figures $22.5M

Underworld $12M

Monster Calls (old $5.9M) - NEW $4.9M 

Edited January 4, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]

Hidden Figures: 20M

Underworld: 10M

Monster: 2M

[Wrath]

Hidden Figures (wide) - 18.5M

Monster Calls (wide) - 1.9M

Underworld - 13.5M

[Eevin]

Hidden Figures (wide)- $28m

Monster Calls (wide)- $2.2m

Underworld- $12.3m 

[Blankments]

Hidden Figures - 22.231M

Underworld: Blood Wars - 13.421M

A Monster Calls- 1.870M

[Wrath]

There we go. Numbers crunched and predictions made. We're strongly optimistic on Hidden Figures (though so is BO.com), slightly pessimistic on Underworld, and I probably should have left Monster Calls out because MovieWeb and Variety's predictions are insane (ok, that's because I interpreted Variety's "Less than $10M" as $9M, when they probably meant $9.00, but I do the best I can with the data I'm provided).

 

Hidden Figures

Mean: 21.0M

Median: 21.3M

StnDev: 3.93M (revised StnDev: 4.07M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 18.43%

High: 28M

Low: 14M

 

BO.com 21M

Deadline 16M

MovieWeb 13.7M

Variety 17M

 

Monster Calls

Mean: 2.8M

Median: 2.1M

StnDev: 1.47M (revised StnDev: 4.80M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 70.18%

High: 5.5M

Low: 1.87M

 

BO.com 

Deadline 

MovieWeb 16.8M

Variety 9M

 

Underworld

Mean: 14.2M

Median: 13.5M

StnDev: 3.71M (revised StnDev: 3.15M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 27.48%

High: 21M

Low: 10M

 

BO.com 13.5M

Deadline 14M

MovieWeb 14.6M

Variety 15M

[TwoMisfits]

On 1/6/2017 at 5:30 PM, Wrath said:

There we go. Numbers crunched and predictions made. We're strongly optimistic on Hidden Figures (though so is BO.com), slightly pessimistic on Underworld, and I probably should have left Monster Calls out because MovieWeb and Variety's predictions are insane (ok, that's because I interpreted Variety's "Less than $10M" as $9M, when they probably meant $9.00, but I do the best I can with the data I'm provided).

 

Hidden Figures

Mean: 21.0M

Median: 21.3M

StnDev: 3.93M (revised StnDev: 4.07M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 18.43%

High: 28M

Low: 14M

 

BO.com 21M

Deadline 16M

MovieWeb 13.7M

Variety 17M

 

Monster Calls

Mean: 2.8M

Median: 2.1M

StnDev: 1.47M (revised StnDev: 4.80M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 70.18%

High: 5.5M

Low: 1.87M

 

BO.com 

Deadline 

MovieWeb 16.8M

Variety 9M

 

Underworld

Mean: 14.2M

Median: 13.5M

StnDev: 3.71M (revised StnDev: 3.15M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 27.48%

High: 21M

Low: 10M

 

BO.com 13.5M

Deadline 14M

MovieWeb 14.6M

Variety 15M

 

We were pretty darn accurate this week - it amuses me that I was farthest off on the lowest movie (I'm gonna blame the snow - yep, that's my excuse for being that far off...that and I cheerlead non-sequel/non spin-offs:)...

[Wrath]

Hidden Figures

Prediction: 21.3M +/- 3.93M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 22.8M (off by 1.5M, so 0.38 stndev)

Possibly our best weekend ever for predictions. When the *worst* predict is off by 0.38 stndev, which is a very solid result in its own right, you know you've done something right. As an added bonus, we were the closest predict (BO.com was #2 at 21M). Best predict was 22.5M by TwoMisfits in their first predict ever. Nice job!

abc

Monster Calls

Prediction: 2.1M +/- 1.47M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 2.08M (off by 0.02M, so 0.01 stndev)

Pff. Freaking terrible. Off by almost 1% of a stndev? Not even a perfect bullseye! Kidding, obviously. This was one of our 3-4 best predicts ever. Since our predicts tend to only get down to the 100k level of granularity, movies going wide with really small expected grosses are a double edged sword. On the one hand, there's a much higher than normal chance of getting a bullseye (or close) with a movie expected to make, say $2M, because there are only so many places our predicts are likely to land (1.9, 2.0, 2.1, 2.2, etc). Compare that to, say, an 20M OW movie where there are a lot more potential guesses (20.1, 22.3, 17.5, etc). Its at least an order of magnitude more difficult. On the other hand, the risk of getting a catastropically bad predict is also high. If we predict 2.3M and it comes in at 4M, we've completely failed. Its a high risk, high reward situation and in this case we did great. Best predict was a tie between Alli and WrathofHan, both predicting 2M. The only other two websites to predict came in at 9M and 16.8M, so us being closest was a pretty safe bet from the get-go.

abc

Underworld

Prediction: 13.5M +/- 0.2M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 13.689M (off by 0.2M, so 0.05 stndev)

Possibly an even better predict than Monster Calls. Not quite as precisely close, but as I mentioned under Monster Calls, the opening doesn't have to go up that much to make a precise prediction vastly more difficult. Not quite as close as Monster Calls, but given how much harder this was, I think it was an even better result. BO.com also predicted 13.5M, so we tied with them for first place, though everyone else did pretty solidly as well. Best predict was by me (yea!) at 13.5M, with filmlover an extremely close second at 14M.

abc

Edited January 10, 2017 by Wrath