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Porthos

1/3/17 Tuesday Numbers (Asgard) R1 6.4, Sing 6.3

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Sing dropped ≈ 56.2% 

R1 dropped ≈ 59.8%

 

Both very good drops, IMO, considering the high Monday numbers for both.

 

An imperfect comparison, but TFA dropped 62.7% from it's New Year's Sunday to Monday, and then a further .7% on Tuesday, so this is right in that ballpark near as I can tell when looking at Sun--> Tue.

 

========

 

Been tracking the R1 to TFA mulitplier, and with this estimate R1 is now .173x 'behind' TFA at their respective points in the run, a gain of .01x:

 

Spoiler

TFA multiplier:

1.162
1.312
1.466
1.576
1.775
2.004
2.178
2.304
2.424
2.537
2.629
2.768
2.907
2.993
3.026
(Tue 1/5) 3.058

 

 

R1 multiplier:

1.113
1.227
1.323
1.432
1.579
1.678
1.844
2.051
2.196
2.313
2.421
2.538
2.632
2.740
2.843
(Tue 1/3) 2.884

 

Difference:

Mon -0.048
Tue -0.086
Wed -0.142
Thr -0.145
Fri -0.196
Sat -0.326 
Sun -0.334
Mon -0.253
Tue -0.227
Wed -0.224
Thr -0.209
Fri -0.230
Sat -0.274
Sun -0.253
Mon -0.183
Tue -0.173

 

Edited by Porthos
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Including the Tuesday number, Sing's cume is 3.41x it's 4-day ow. Tintin's was 3.51x the 4-day ow.

Tintin's final multiplier off the 4-day ow was 5.13x. If Sing's final multi trails by a similar ratio as the multis so far, it will do 274 dom.

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I would have expected maybe a bit better for both films with so many people still off. I'm in Los Angeles and traffic was light today, everyone saying it's because kids are still off and many people aren't back to work yet either. I guess it's not like that everywhere though clearly. 

 

Saw Rogue One at TCL Chinese tonight and it looked amazing. Pretty busy screening!!

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4 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I would have expected maybe a bit better for both films with so many people still off. I'm in Los Angeles and traffic was light today, everyone saying it's because kids are still off and many people aren't back to work yet either. I guess it's not like that everywhere though clearly. 

 

Saw Rogue One at TCL Chinese tonight and it looked amazing. Pretty busy screening!!

 

Took a random look at major cities and school districts are back in session in NYC, SF, and Boston.  Chicago looks to have them off this week though, so it's pretty haphazard as to whether or not kids are running around.

Edited by Porthos
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I'm hoping for $30M+ I mean even $30M is still about -40% and I think it can do that.

 

EDIT: Yeah let's say down 25% by Thursday like Game of Shadows and up 125% Friday from that $4.8M Thursday and you use the Sherlock 2 bumps and declines and you get $33M weekend. I think it could have a smaller bump Friday but a lower decline Sunday and still hit that $31-33M number. 

Edited by JonathanLB
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Fences has a prod budget of only 24m. It's cume so far is ~33m with a lot more to come. Marketing budget can't be very big.

 

Date
(click to view chart)
Rank Weekend
Gross
%
Change
Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week
#
Dec 16–18 25 $129,462 - 4 - $32,366 $129,462 1
Dec 23–25 7 $6,688,105 +5,066% 2,233 +2,229 $2,995 $6,879,620 2
Dec 23–26 7 $11,600,170 +8,860% 2,233 +2,229 $5,195 $11,791,685 2
Dec 30–Jan 1 6 $10,041,471 +50.1% 2,301 +68 $4,364 $29,743,615 3
Dec 30–Jan 2 6 $13,111,773 +96.0% 2,301 +68 $5,698 $32,813,917 3

 

Denzel is sooo consistent at the bo for such a long time.

 

EDIT: Off topic really. But felt like giving a shout out to the movie as it's been buried under the hype.

Edited by a2knet
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Okay, this probably is NEVER a fair comparison, and even if it ever is, it's probably not fair until next week when both films are past the holiday window completely.

 

But on a lark, and using the 6.4 number for Tue, I decided to see what would happen if R1 followed TFA's drops EXACTLY (with one big exception [see below]) for the rest of the run (well, through April 14th, that is.  Past that I don't have daily numbers, but TFA only did 1m more after that so whatevas):

Spoiler

Jan

Spoiler
$4,988,657 -22% $452,290,038
$4,797,420 -4% $457,087,458
$8,630,644 80% $465,718,101
$15,426,065 79% $481,144,166
$9,964,838 -35% $491,109,005
$2,497,128 -75% $493,606,132
$3,088,100 24% $496,694,232
$2,502,137 -19% $499,196,369
$2,514,210 0% $501,710,579
$5,083,862 102% $506,794,441
$8,858,880 74% $515,653,322
$7,217,104 -19% $522,870,425
$5,364,359 -26% $528,234,785
$1,912,515 -64% $530,147,299
$1,457,320 -24% $531,604,619
$1,513,440 4% $533,118,059
$2,839,768 88% $535,957,827
$5,474,009 93% $541,431,836
$2,995,186 -45% $544,427,022
$1,040,831 -65% $545,467,853
$1,264,736 22% $546,732,589
$1,063,915 -16% $547,796,504
$1,075,149 1% $548,871,652
$1,983,035 84% $550,854,687
$4,088,616 106% $554,943,303
$2,858,053 -30% $557,801,357
$627,182 -78% $558,428,538
$745,036 19% $559,173,574

Feb

Spoiler
$641,644 -14% $559,815,219
$645,464 1% $560,460,683
$1,424,008 121% $561,884,691
$3,028,120 113% $564,912,811
$1,149,331 -62% $566,062,142
$545,126 -53% $566,607,268
$568,750 4% $567,176,018
$504,611 -11% $567,680,628
$470,161 -7% $568,150,789
$898,007 91% $569,048,796
$1,742,133 94% $570,790,929
$1,184,651 -32% $571,975,580
$296,163 -75% $572,271,742
$364,280 23% $572,636,023
$316,924 -13% $572,952,946
$310,585 -2% $573,263,531
$630,488 103% $573,894,019
$1,305,110 107% $575,199,129
$1,331,212 2% $576,530,342
$785,415 -41% $577,315,757
$306,312 -61% $577,622,069
$248,113 -19% $577,870,181
$255,556 3% $578,125,737
$554,594 117% $578,680,331
$1,194,007 115% $579,874,338
$717,838 -40% $580,592,176
$196,080 -73% $580,788,256
$233,278 19% $581,021,534

Mar

Spoiler
$196,356 -16% $581,217,890
$191,240 -3% $581,409,130
$349,407 83% $581,758,536
$713,666 104% $582,472,203
$476,948 -33% $582,949,151
$126,459 -73% $583,075,610
$135,138 7% $583,210,747
$121,214 -10% $583,331,962
$126,791 5% $583,458,752
$255,578 102% $583,714,330
$480,595 88% $584,194,925
$335,614 -30% $584,530,539
$119,516 -64% $584,650,056
$137,174 15% $584,787,230
$122,488 -11% $584,909,718
$117,319 -4% $585,027,037
$198,810 69% $585,225,847
$353,562 78% $585,579,410
$245,486 -31% $585,824,896
$102,290 -58% $585,927,186
$111,312 9% $586,038,498
$109,904 -1% $586,148,402
$116,911 6% $586,265,313
$237,431 103% $586,502,744
$267,260 13% $586,770,003
$169,627 -37% $586,939,630
$118,027 -30% $587,057,657
$106,899 -9% $587,164,557
$104,360 -2% $587,268,916
$118,759 14% $587,387,675

Apr

Spoiler
$174,330 47% $587,562,005
$250,395 44% $587,812,401
$138,218 -45% $587,950,619
$46,954 -66% $587,997,573
$55,745 19% $588,053,318
$48,114 -14% $588,101,432
$56,682 18% $588,158,114
$87,116 54% $588,245,230
$142,839 64% $588,388,069
$82,989 -42% $588,471,059
$20,530 -75% $588,491,588
$26,500 29% $588,518,088
$20,545 -22% $588,538,634
$26,887 31% $588,565,520

 

 

The one change I did make was swap around the drops for Presidents Day Weekend and the Tu-Thr drops that followed on that week, since it comes a week later this year*.  That's an imperfect cudgel, but I didn't want to over think this.

 

* (That is, the drops for TFA's Day 64 - 70 was put in the slots for R1's 57-63 drops and the drops for TFA's Day 57-63 was put in the slots for R1's Day 64-70 drops)

 

Came up with $588,565,520.

 

Throw in another 500k for the rest of the run that I didn't have daily info for and I come up with 589m.  IF it follows TFA exactly from here on out.

 

Is it likely to closely follow TFA here on out?  Probably not.   But I think it might show where R1 can head if a lot of things break for it.  And also show that 600m isn't COMPLETELY out of the question if it has slightly better drops along the way.

 

And before people ask, I KNOW that R1 hasn't followed TFA much at all.  But if that's been because of the placement of the holidays, then it might be interesting to see what a TFA run the rest of the way would generate, once an adjustment for Presidents Day Weekend is made. 

 

Edited by Porthos
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43 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Fences has a prod budget of only 24m. It's cume so far is ~33m with a lot more to come. Marketing budget can't be very big.

 

Date
(click to view chart)
Rank Weekend
Gross
%
Change
Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week
#
Dec 16–18 25 $129,462 - 4 - $32,366 $129,462 1
Dec 23–25 7 $6,688,105 +5,066% 2,233 +2,229 $2,995 $6,879,620 2
Dec 23–26 7 $11,600,170 +8,860% 2,233 +2,229 $5,195 $11,791,685 2
Dec 30–Jan 1 6 $10,041,471 +50.1% 2,301 +68 $4,364 $29,743,615 3
Dec 30–Jan 2 6 $13,111,773 +96.0% 2,301 +68 $5,698 $32,813,917 3

 

Denzel is sooo consistent at the bo for such a long time.

 

EDIT: Off topic really. But felt like giving a shout out to the movie as it's been buried under the hype.

 

Yeh, Fences is doing really well so far. I was worried initially because of the big drops it's first few days. It's definitely settled down now. 

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The theaters were packed here Yesterday. I am bit surprised at that number for Rogue one. I thought it would be a little bit higher.

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2 hours ago, a2knet said:

Fences has a prod budget of only 24m. It's cume so far is ~33m with a lot more to come. Marketing budget can't be very big.

 

Date
(click to view chart)
Rank Weekend
Gross
%
Change
Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week
#
Dec 16–18 25 $129,462 - 4 - $32,366 $129,462 1
Dec 23–25 7 $6,688,105 +5,066% 2,233 +2,229 $2,995 $6,879,620 2
Dec 23–26 7 $11,600,170 +8,860% 2,233 +2,229 $5,195 $11,791,685 2
Dec 30–Jan 1 6 $10,041,471 +50.1% 2,301 +68 $4,364 $29,743,615 3
Dec 30–Jan 2 6 $13,111,773 +96.0% 2,301 +68 $5,698 $32,813,917 3

 

Denzel is sooo consistent at the bo for such a long time.

 

EDIT: Off topic really. But felt like giving a shout out to the movie as it's been buried under the hype.

Denzel didn't even have to take that much of an awards bait salary cut, really, I swear Fences has about three sets. You would never look at Fences and Hidden Figures back to back and think their budgets were $1m apart.

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