2017 100M Films - 33 down, 3 to go! (Pitchslapped!)

[Amadeus]

3 hours ago, stripe said:

 

Even quiting these three, there are 28 movies that have at least 90% chance of grossing 100M. Only 7 movies more to reach the record. We are in for a really good year.

I like it more when 10 movies make 300m (like last year) than when 30 movies gross 100m.
Different strokes

[stripe]

28 minutes ago, Amadeus said:

I like it more when 10 movies make 300m (like last year) than when 30 movies gross 100m.
Different strokes

 

It is worse for the studios and for the film industry in general to have more 300M movies and less mid range hits.

 

After last year scenario, I assure you they will invest less money in original ideas, only focussing on sequels, franchises or remakes. And that's not an encouraging future.

 

Thanks God we still have a healthy animated industry.

[stripe]

Despite grossing 11.4b DOM, last year we had 89 30M+ grossers

In 2006, with 9.2b DOM, there were 95 movies grossing 30M+

2016 had less 30M grossers than 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2006, 2005 and 2003. We had the same number of 30M+ grossers than 2002 and 2004!!!

 

More money for less movies? Not a great sign.

[nick64]

A little late, but still wanna take a crack at it. I put Split, TLBM, FSD, JWC2, and GO where I would have had them before they were released for consistency's sake. I may shift the spots of some films after the first official trailer release, but won't change anything after that.

 

Success

On its way?

Miss

 

Guaranteed-

The LEGO Batman Movie

Logan

Kong: Skull Island

Beauty and the Beast

The Fate of the Furious

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Wonder Woman

Cars 3

Transformers: The Last Knight

Despicable Me 3

Spider-Man: Homecoming

War for the Planet of the Apes

Dunkirk

Thor: Ragnarok

Justice League

Coco

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

 

Likely-

Power Rangers

The Boss Baby

Alien: Covenant

The Mummy

It

Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Blade Runner 2049

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Pitch Perfect 3

 

Decent Shot-

Fifty Shades Darker

Ghost in the Shell

Smurfs: The Lost Village

Baywatch

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

The Emoji Movie

The Dark Tower

The LEGO Ninjago Movie

 

Dark Horses-

Split

John Wick: Chapter 2

Snatched

All Eyez on Me

Rough Night

The House

Detroit

Mother!

Geostorm

A Bad Moms Christmas

Daddy's Home 2

Murder on the Orient Express

Ferdinand

The Greatest Showman

Downsizing

The Post

 

Unexpected Surprises-

Get Out

Baby Driver

Girls Trip

Annabelle: Creation

Wonder

Edited January 10, 2018 by nick64

[mahnamahna]

Spoiler

January-April

1. Beauty & the Beast: $550 million 
2. The Fate of the Furious: $265 million 
3. Logan: $240 million 
4. The LEGO Batman Movie: $180 million
5. Get Out: $155 million 
6. Split: $140 million
7. Power Rangers: $125 million 
8. Fifty Shades Darker: $120 million

 

 

Spoiler

May-August

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $435 million
2. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $370 million
3. Despicable Me 3: $310 million 
4. Dunkirk: $305 million 
5. Wonder Woman: $255 million 
6. Cars 3: $210 million 
7. War for the Planet of the Apes: $185 million 
8. Transformers - The Last Knight: $165 million 
9. Alien - Covenant: $160 million 
10. Baywatch: $150 million 
11. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $145 million 
12. The Mummy: $135 million 
13. Snatched: $115 million 
14. Girls Trip: $110 million 
15. The House: $105 million 
16. The Emoji Movie: $100 million 

 

Spoiler

1. Star Wars - The Last Jedi: $850 million 
2. Justice League: $355 million 
3. Coco: $280 million 
4. Thor - Ragnorak: $230 million 
5. Murder on the Orient Express: $170 million 
6. Blade Runner 2049: $155 million 
7. The Star: $145 million 
8. Ninjago: $130 million 
9. Jumanji: $125 million 
10. Downsizing: $120 million 
11. The Greatest Showman: $115 million 
12. Untitled Cloverfield Movie: $110 million 
13. Daddy's Home 2: $105 million 
14. Pitch Perfect 3: $105 million 
15. Kingsman The Golden Circle: $100 million 

 

 

[zackzack]

nobody's updating this?

[zackzack]

1	The LEGO Batman Movie	WB	$151,203,660	4,088	$53,003,468	4,088	2/10	-
2	Split	Uni.	$134,612,135	3,373	$40,010,975	3,038	1/20	-
3	Logan	Fox	$114,806,733	4,071	$88,411,916	4,071	3/3	-
4	Fifty Shades Darker	Uni.	$111,293,235	3,714	$46,607,250	3,710	2/10

 

Done  

[Jay Beezy]

Get Out should get there right after this weekend.

[mahnamahna]

By May 1st, there may be nine films at $100 million+ DOM (Split, LEGO Batman, Fifty Shades Darker, Get Out, Logan, Kong, B&TB, Power Rangers, Fast 8) versus the five at the same point last year (Kung Fu Panda 3, Deadpool, Zootopia, Batman vs. Superman, Jungle Book).

 

2017 is looking to be far more well-rounded. 

[Eevin]

13 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

By May 1st, there may be nine films at $100 million+ DOM (Split, LEGO Batman, Fifty Shades Darker, Get Out, Logan, Kong, B&TB, Power Rangers, Fast 8) versus the five at the same point last year (Kung Fu Panda 3, Deadpool, Zootopia, Batman vs. Superman, Jungle Book).

 

2017 is looking to be far more well-rounded. 

Even better when you add on Hidden Figures and La La Land, which made most of their money in 2017. Might end up being like 2014 in that it's not a record-breaking year, while producing far more well-rounded, mid-range hits.

[zackzack]

8 hours ago, mahnamahna said:

By May 1st, there may be nine films at $100 million+ DOM (Split, LEGO Batman, Fifty Shades Darker, Get Out, Logan, Kong, B&TB, Power Rangers, Fast 8) versus the five at the same point last year (Kung Fu Panda 3, Deadpool, Zootopia, Batman vs. Superman, Jungle Book).

 

2017 is looking to be far more well-rounded. 

 

Yea but in 2016, four of those (Zootopia, Jungle Book, BvS & Deadpool) made more than $300M. Deadpool just sucked everything dry. And Zootopia & Jungle cleaned up the family crowd.

[Boxofficerules]

You think It has a shot at $100 million?

[mahnamahna]

On 3/11/2017 at 7:24 AM, zackzack said:

 

Yea but in 2016, four of those (Zootopia, Jungle Book, BvS & Deadpool) made more than $300M. Deadpool just sucked everything dry. And Zootopia & Jungle cleaned up the family crowd.

 

The contrast grows even more stark once you add in May-August.

 

Possible 2017 top 25 through the Jan-August slate

Spoiler

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $455 million
2. Beauty & the Beast: $430 million
3. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $345 million
4. Despicable Me 3: $310 million
5. The Fate of the Furious: $265 million
6. Wonder Woman: $250 million
7. Dunkirk: $245 million
8. Cars 3: $215 million
9. Logan: $205 million
10. Get Out: $185 million
11. War for the Planet of the Apes: $180 million
12. The LEGO Batman Movie: $175 million
13. Transformers - The Last Knight: $170 million
14. Alien - Covenant: $160 million
15. Kong - Skull Island: $155 million 
16. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $150 million
17. Baywatch: $145 million
18. Split: $140 million
19. The Mummy: $135 million
20. Snatched: $120 million
21. Fifty Shades Darker: $115 million
22. Power Rangers: $110 million
23. The Dark Tower: $105 million
24. Girls Trip: $105 million
25. The Emoji Movie: $100 million

 

 

A pretty well-rounded lineup

Edited March 15, 2017 by mahnamahna

[SLAM!]

I'm holding out hope for John Wick Chapter Two to get over 100 million!

[stripe]

On 11/3/2017 at 11:43 PM, slambros said:

I'm holding out hope for John Wick Chapter Two to get over 100 million!

 

Unfortunately, it won't

93-95M DOM

 

Anyways, next weekend we will see two new additions to the rank.

Split

Lego Batman

50 Shades Darker

Logan

Get Out

Kong

Beauty and the Beast

 

Already 7 100M+ grossers in less than 3 months!

[PPZVGOS]

On 2/23/2017 at 3:04 PM, stripe said:

Despite grossing 11.4b DOM, last year we had 89 30M+ grossers

In 2006, with 9.2b DOM, there were 95 movies grossing 30M+

2016 had less 30M grossers than 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2006, 2005 and 2003. We had the same number of 30M+ grossers than 2002 and 2004!!!

 

More money for less movies? Not a great sign.

 

This tendency has been very pronounced of late. 2016 was especially lopsided towards a few mega-hits and very depressed grosses for everything else. But since December of last year we have had quite a few sleeper hits, La La Land, Hidden Figures, Split, John Wick 2, Get Out. 

 

But long-term, I see this tendency for very a very lopsided BO continue. People are mostly only willing to pay for a movie and get into the trouble of driving to a theater, only if it's some kind of event film where they feel that they are getting their money's worth. 

 

@nick64

 

The Mummy, Lego Ninjango, Alien: Covenant, Blade Runner 2049, Jumanji, Pitch Perfect 3, Coco, Kingsman 2, Baywatch are also certain to go over $100M. I can also see Ghost in the Shell doing it. 

Edited March 16, 2017 by PPZVGOS

[nick64]

1 hour ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

This tendency has been very pronounced of late. 2016 was especially lopsided towards a few mega-hits and very depressed grosses for everything else. But since December of last year we have had quite a few sleeper hits, La La Land, Hidden Figures, Split, John Wick 2, Get Out. 

 

But long-term, I see this tendency for very a very lopsided BO continue. People are mostly only willing to pay for a movie and get into the trouble of driving to a theater, only if it's some kind of event film where they feel that they are getting their money's worth. 

 

@nick64

 

The Mummy, Lego Ninjango, Alien: Covenant, Blade Runner 2049, Jumanji, Pitch Perfect 3, Coco, Kingsman 2, Baywatch are also certain to go over $100M. I can also see Ghost in the Shell doing it. 

I put them all under "likely" simply because I can imagine a scenario where all of them fail to do it, whereas I couldn't for the films under "guaranteed". But I'd say Alien, Jumanji, Pitch Perfect 3, and Coco are near certain. I could easily see The Mummy flopping. Ninjago has less brand image than Batman and that did below expectations, so I could see that one falling short. Blade Runner and Kingsman definitely seem likely and have the fan bases for it, but I don't wanna rule out the possibility of those fan bases making hype seem bigger than it is. Baywatch will probably be the comedy of the summer, but if it sucks and audiences don't like it, I can see it falling short. I have suspicions about Ghost in the Shell, because I haven't seen too many casual moviegoers show interest in it. I could see it debuting well with a poor multiplier.

 

Completely agree with your first point.

[PPZVGOS]

29 minutes ago, nick64 said:

I put them all under "likely" simply because I can imagine a scenario where all of them fail to do it, whereas I couldn't for the films under "guaranteed". But I'd say Alien, Jumanji, Pitch Perfect 3, and Coco are near certain. I could easily see The Mummy flopping. Ninjago has less brand image than Batman and that did below expectations, so I could see that one falling short. Blade Runner and Kingsman definitely seem likely and have the fan bases for it, but I don't wanna rule out the possibility of those fan bases making hype seem bigger than it is. Baywatch will probably be the comedy of the summer, but if it sucks and audiences don't like it, I can see it falling short. I have suspicions about Ghost in the Shell, because I haven't seen too many casual moviegoers show interest in it. I could see it debuting well with a poor multiplier.

 

Completely agree with your first point.

 

Coco is 100% certain. Has any Pixar movie ever fail to pass $100M? Why would it start now with inflated prices? Jumanji, also 100% certain. The Mummy with Tom Cruise and lots of spectacle may not smash the BO, but can definitely smash through the $100M (which is no big deal anyway, anymore) Also, even if Pitch Perfect massively under-performs its predecessors, it will still make it over $100M. Ninjango may not be Batman, and Lego Batman may have under-performed somewhat, but it has still made well, well over $100M. Alien may fail to pass the century mark, but it will have to be a total disaster for something like that to be so. Blade Runner 2 has a lot going for it. Ryan Gosling in a rule that fits him like a glove, return of Harrison Ford (a la Force Awakens) and Dennis Villeuneuve directing. It's a sure hit. The question is whether it can pass $200M, not 100. Kingsman will also make it, it has a very strong cast and a presume a big budget. The only one I have doubts whether it will make it, is Ghost in the Shell. A lot depends on that movie's quality. But if Lucy could make what it did, then this one must surely make more. 

 

Edited March 16, 2017 by PPZVGOS

[MCKillswitch123]

Agreed, Coco is a lock for 100M. The Good Dinosaur still made 100M+ DOM even though it had TERRIBLE marketing and meh wom. It had the Pixar logo before it, and that's all it needed to guarantee at least 100M. Hell, fucking Planes, a spin-off of the shittiest Pixar franchise (and it wasn't even made by Pixar), got to 90M+ DOM on the power of it being based in a Pixar franchise.

 

Also think Blade Runner and Kingsman both are very, very likely.

 

I dunno about Pitch Perfect 3, though. We all thought Passengers was a lock, and it didn't quite work out. Though PP3 is bound to have a bigger pre-existing awareness than Passengers did... but The Last Jedi though.

[nick64]

I put Coco in "likely" simply because we've seen with The Good Dinosaur that Pixar is capable of failing (especially in a double release year), and Coco seemed a lot more The Good Dinosaur than Inside Out, and we hadn't had any promo to give an idea yet. But the teaser trailer has had pretty good reception so far, so I'll probably move it to Guarantee at this point.

 

Still not 100% sold on any of the others though:

-The Mummy can miss so easily if it's bad or mismarketed. First of all, it's a crowded month. Second of all, the trailer hasn't exactly had great feedback. Third, the last Mummy film only made $102m and Dracula Untold (which was supposed to start this Monsterverse) only made $56m because no one cared about it. We've seen big budget films with established properties bomb before (Fant4stic anyone?) so I'm not sold yet.

-Pitch Perfect 3 is definitely a near certainty. The only reason I put it and Jumanji under "likely" instead of "guaranteed" is because they're both comedies that will be directly competing with one another. I think they'll both made it, but I also think they could lower each other's grosses, possibly down to 80-90m.

-You even admitted Alien could fail if it's a disaster. That chance is enough to lower me from 100% sure.

-Blade Runner and Kingsman definitely seem like they will do well, but we still don't know for sure. There's also the fact that they will be targetting similar markets and directly competing with each other, so like the PP3/J, they could affect each other.

-Ninjago's a very tough sell. It won't have the LEGO novelty anymore as it's the third LEGO film and the second in a year. Batman is a HUGELY more popular brand, so yeah, I can definitely see Ninjago only doing about half of that ($80-90m).

-Ghost in the Shell isn't guaranteed more than Lucy. ScarJo was certainly huge for Lucy, but that had an intriguing premise at least. Every person I've seen the GITS trailer with looked confused. Star power can only do so much, and this looks like it's targetting existing fans more than new ones.

 

Again though, I'd just like to reinforce that "Likely" doesn't mean I don't think it will make $100m. I actually think all of these films mentioned will. Certain ones like Alien, PP3, Jumanji, Coco, and Kingsman, I'm over 90% sure on. It just means I'm not 100% certain with no doubt in my mind.