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Best Picture predictions-2017!

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IDK Renner did little for me. Pretty stock character (the ultracompetent guy who's always in control of every situation but is haunted by his past which allows for weary stares and monologues when it's convenient) and he didn't bring enough personality to elevate it. He's closer to Chris Pine than to anyone else in HOHW, and I also thought Pine had the least compelling character to play in that movie, though he grew on me by the end. Elizabeth Olsen could have been as well-drawn as Emily Blunt in Sicario but the script kinda ends up wasting her too. 

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Pre-festival predictions:

 

Picture:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Call Me by Your Name

3. The Shape of Water

4. The Papers

5. mother!

6. Get Out

7. Last Flag Flying

8. Wonder Wheel

9. Darkest Hour

10. Detroit

Alt: Breathe

 

Director:

 

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

2. Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water

3. Darren Aronofsky, mother!

4. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

5. Steven Spielberg, The Papers

Alt: Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying

 

Actor:

 

1. Daniel Day-Lewis, PTA's new joint

2. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

3. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying

4. Javier Bardem, mother!

5. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

Alt: Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.


Actress:

 

1. Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

2. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

3. Meryl Streep, The Papers

4. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Alt: Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

2. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

3. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying

4. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

5. Will Poulter, Detroit

Alt: Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate

3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

4. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel

5. Claire Foy, Breathe

Alt: Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The Shape of Water

2. Get Out

3. mother!

4. The Papers

5. Wonder Wheel

Alt: The Killing of a Sacred Deer

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Call Me by Your Name

2. Last Flag Flying

3. Darkest Hour

4. The Disaster Artist

5. The Death of Stalin

Alt: Molly's Game

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3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pre-festival predictions:

 

Supporting Actor:

5. Will Poulter, Detroit

Time to let this one go, man. If Detroit is resurrected at the end of the year for even a random Sound nomination, it'll be a Christmas miracle at this point.

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5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Time to let this one go, man. If Detroit is resurrected at the end of the year for even a random Sound nomination, it'll be a Christmas miracle at this point.

Nope. I haven't seen a good reason to remove him yet. This is EXACTLY the kind of role they like to nominate in Supporting Actor, and I still think Detroit will be in the conversation somewhat later this year.

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1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Nope. I haven't seen a good reason to remove him yet. This is EXACTLY the kind of role they like to nominate in Supporting Actor, and I still think Detroit will be in the conversation somewhat later this year.

There's plenty. He's a mostly unknown under 25 year old (and Timothee Chalamet is likely to suck up most of the young breakout star buzz this year), in a film that flopped epically at box office and is unlikely to be resurrected by the critics awards (it's in the low 80s on RT), and said film was released by a studio completely unexperienced at campaigning (and is unlikely to make a first impression with a film that already has too many negatives associated with it and we're not even close to awards season). He's gonna need a LOT of more experienced actors in more buzzy films than Detroit will be by the time fall comes around to fall to have any shot at a nom.

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I'll defend Detroit as fervently as possible, but it's not getting anything major at the Oscars unless the critics' organizations go to bat for it in a truly unprecedented way. Its score at Metacritic is about even with Zodiac, another prestige film that bombed in a release outside of awards season but had a base of passionate supporters, and that film ended up being shutout completely on nomination day.

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Where I think Downsizing could land:

 

Picture: Right now I think it's outside the Top 10. A nominatoin is going to depend on its box office and how much the Academy embraces the film.

Director: Definitely possible. Payne is extremely well-liked and should be just outside the top 5 IMO. I can see this being nominated here and not BP.

Actor: Probably not. Damon isn't getting "Oscar-worthy" notices for this role, and the field is very strong this year.

Supporting Actor: Perhaps! Waltz is said to have a very showy, hammy role here, and I could easily see the Academy going for him.

Supporting Actress: Chau is locked for a nomination with these reviews. A win depends on Pfeiffer.

Original Screenplay: This is probably around 7th right now. Like the directing branch, Payne is well-liked here, but the film's biggest issue seems to be its structure and narrative. I don't know how well that bodes here.

Production Design: I'm predicting this right now. 

Visual Effects: Maybe?

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And The Shape of Water has landed to a great reception. A lot of tech nominations should be assured, and Sally Hawkins will likely be Fox Searchlight's #1 Best Actress push (since Emma Stone and Frances McDormand's movies are unlikely to be huge deals overall).

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Thoughts on where Shape of Water stands:

 

Picture: This easily feels like a Top 3 contender right now.

Director: GDT is probably second behind Nolan, and who knows, maybe he'll win!

Actress: I have Hawkins in fifth right now but may move her up or out depending how the competition is. Doesn't help that all the other contenders haven't screened yet.

Supporting Actor: I expect one actor to make it in. Michael Shannon plays the traditional villain (which he excels at), but Richard Jenkins seems to be much more of a standout from reviews. I'm leaning towards the former getting in just because this category favors villains. I don't know if Searchlight could push/fraud Jenkins into lead because some people are making it seem like his role is pretty substantial.

Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer could get in on a coattail, but the performance doesn't seem like it stands out much on its own.

Original Screenplay: This should easily make it in and perhaps win.

Score: The score is a standout per reviews, and Desplat is obviously well-liked. It'll get nominated.

All those techs (Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, VFX, Sound Editing and Mixing): .....Er, yeah :lol: 

 

I have it at 13(!) nominations right now.

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Telluride Film Festival (running from tomorrow through Monday) schedule posted:

 

“Arthur Miller: Writer” (d. Rebecca Miller, U.S., 2017)
“Battle of the Sexes” (d. Valerie Faris, Jonathan Dayton, U.S., 2017)
“Darkest Hour” (d. Joe Wright, U.K., 2017)
“Downsizing” (d. Alexander Payne, U.S., 2017)
“Eating Animals” (d. Christopher Quinn, U.S., 2017)
“Faces Places” (d. Agnes Varda, JR, France, 2017)
“A Fantastic Woman” (d. Sebastián Lelio, Chile-U.S.-Germany-Spain, 2017)
“Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool” (d. Paul McGuigan, U.K., 2017)
“First Reformed” (d. Paul Schrader, U.S., 2017)
“First They Killed My Father” (d. Angelina Jolie, U.S.-Cambodia, 2017)
“Foxtrot” (d. Samuel Maoz, Israel, 2017)
“Hostages” (d. Rezo Gigineishvili, Georgia-Russia-Poland, 2017)
“Hostiles” (d. Scott Cooper, U.S., 2017)
“Human Flow” (d. Ai Weiwei, U.S.-Germany, 2017)
“The Insult” (d. Ziad Doueiri, France-Lebanon, 2017)
“Lady Bird” (d. Greta Gerwig, U.S., 2017)
“Land of the Free” (d. Camilla Magid, Denmark-Finland, 2017)
“Lean on Pete” (d. Andrew Haigh, U.K.-U.S., 2017)
“Loveless” (d. Andrey Zvyagintsev, Russia-France-Belgium-Germany, 2017)
“Love, Cecil” (d. Lisa Immordino Vreeland, U.S., 2017)
“Loving Vincent” (d. Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, U.K.-Poland, 2017)
“A Man of Integrity” (d. Mohammad Rasoulof, Iran, 2017)
“The Other Side of Hope” (d. Aki Kaurismäki, Finland, 2017)
“The Rider” (d. Chloé Zhao, U.S., 2017)
“The Shape of Water” (d. Guillermo del Toro, U.S., 2017)
“Tesnota” (d. Kantemir Balagov, Russia, 2017)
“The Venerable W.” (d. Barbet Schroeder, France-Switzerland, 2017)
“The Vietnam War” (d. Ken Burns, Lynn Novick, U.S., 2017)
“Wormwood” (d. Errol Morris, U.S., 2017)
“Wonderstruck” (d. Todd Haynes, U.S., 2017)

 

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/telluride-film-festival-2017-lineup-movies-1202541260/

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On 8/30/2017 at 0:58 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Where I think Downsizing could land:

 

Picture: Right now I think it's outside the Top 10. A nominatoin is going to depend on its box office and how much the Academy embraces the film.

Director: Definitely possible. Payne is extremely well-liked and should be just outside the top 5 IMO. I can see this being nominated here and not BP.

Actor: Probably not. Damon isn't getting "Oscar-worthy" notices for this role, and the field is very strong this year.

Supporting Actor: Perhaps! Waltz is said to have a very showy, hammy role here, and I could easily see the Academy going for him.

Supporting Actress: Chau is locked for a nomination with these reviews. A win depends on Pfeiffer.

Original Screenplay: This is probably around 7th right now. Like the directing branch, Payne is well-liked here, but the film's biggest issue seems to be its structure and narrative. I don't know how well that bodes here.

Production Design: I'm predicting this right now. 

Visual Effects: Maybe?

 

6 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Thoughts on where Shape of Water stands:

 

Picture: This easily feels like a Top 3 contender right now.

Director: GDT is probably second behind Nolan, and who knows, maybe he'll win!

Actress: I have Hawkins in fifth right now but may move her up or out depending how the competition is. Doesn't help that all the other contenders haven't screened yet.

Supporting Actor: I expect one actor to make it in. Michael Shannon plays the traditional villain (which he excels at), but Richard Jenkins seems to be much more of a standout from reviews. I'm leaning towards the former getting in just because this category favors villains. I don't know if Searchlight could push/fraud Jenkins into lead because some people are making it seem like his role is pretty substantial.

Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer could get in on a coattail, but the performance doesn't seem like it stands out much on its own.

Original Screenplay: This should easily make it in and perhaps win.

Score: The score is a standout per reviews, and Desplat is obviously well-liked. It'll get nominated.

All those techs (Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, VFX, Sound Editing and Mixing): .....Er, yeah :lol: 

 

I have it at 13(!) nominations right now.

please also do this for tulip fever when the reviews hit thank you.

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1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

 

please also do this for tulip fever when the reviews hit thank you.

 

Picture: Locked for a nomination.

Director: Will definitely happen.

Actor: Sure. Dane DeHaan is such a fantastic actor.

Actress: Vikander could challenge Streep and JLaw for the win.

Supporting Actor: It's pretty clear Waltz will be nominated for this and not downsizing.

Supporting Actress: That girl with the eyebrows will be a coattail nomination.

Adapted Screenplay: Bet on a win.

All those production awards: Indeed.

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I'll share my two cents about films from the list above.

 

I'm rooting for Battle of the Sexes, even if it is releasing a little early. Just because I uses to play tennis and my dad was playing tennis too. It just might be a Globe player at the very least!

 

Also, I'm not counting out The Darkest Hour from having an impact, no matter how baity it seems. It could be this year's Imitation Game.

 

I feel bad for Scott Cooper's Hostiles because there are two relatively similar films this year: Wind River and The Lost City of Z. That'll dampen its luster a little.

 

Lady Bird by Greta Gerwig would be cool to see emerge, although it's chance is slim to say the least.

 

Likewise, Lean on Pete is one that would be cool to see emerge!

 

Loving Vincent seems like it could manage an animation nomination.

 

The Rider won a Cannes award and... even if it's a small one with an unknown director, it just might push through. I hope it does!

 

And Wonderstruck is one that I hope gets better reviews than it did at Cannes... (though I really am not surprised they thumbs-downed something like Wonderstruck).

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