Best Picture predictions-2017!

[The Panda]

If Mudbound doesn't get shut out for being Netflix then Jason Mitchell and Mary J Blige  are strong contenders

[SLAM!]

Gotham Independent Awards 2017 Nominees:

 

Best Feature
Call Me by Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics)
The Florida Project (A24)
Get Out (Universal Pictures)
Good Time (A24)
I, Tonya (NEON/30WEST)

 

Best Documentary
Ex Libris – The New York Public Library (Zipporah Films)
Rat Film (MEMORY and Cinema Guild)
Strong Island (Netflix)
Whose Streets? (Magnolia Pictures)
The Work (The Orchard and First Look Media)

 

Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award
Maggie Betts for Novitiate (Sony Pictures Classics)
Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird (A24)
Kogonada for Columbus (Superlative Films/Depth of Field)
Jordan Peele for Get Out (Universal Pictures)
Joshua Z Weinstein for Menashe (A24)

 

Best Screenplay
The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani (Amazon Studios)
Brad’s Status, Mike White (Amazon Studios)
Call Me by Your Name, James Ivory (Sony Pictures Classics)
Columbus, Kogonada (Superlative Films/Depth of Field)
Get Out, Jordan Peele (Universal Pictures)
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig (A24)

 

Best Actor*
Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project (A24)
James Franco in The Disaster Artist (A24)
Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out (Universal Pictures)
Robert Pattinson in Good Time (A24)
Adam Sandler in The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Netflix)
Harry Dean Stanton in Lucky (Magnolia Pictures)

 

Best Actress*
Melanie Lynskey in I Don’t Feel at Home in This World Anymore (Netflix)
Haley Lu Richardson in Columbus (Superlative Films/Depth of Field)
Margot Robbie in I, Tonya (NEON/30WEST)
Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird (A24)
Lois Smith in Marjorie Prime (FilmRise)

 

Breakthrough Actor
Mary J. Blige in Mudbound (Netflix)
Timothée Chalamet in Call Me by Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics)
Harris Dickinson in Beach Rats (NEON)
Kelvin Harrison, Jr. in It Comes at Night (A24)
Brooklynn Prince in The Florida Project (A24)

 

* The 2017 Best Actor/Best Actress nominating committee also voted to award a special Gotham Jury Award for ensemble performance to Mudbound, The award will go to actors Carey Mulligan, Garrett Hedlund, Jason Clarke, Jason Mitchell, Mary J. Blige, Rob Morgan, and Jonathan Banks.

[Safeno Rdz]

Octavia Spencer is the only black person with a big chance for an acting nomination at this point.

[SLAM!]

4 hours ago, Safeno Rdz said:

Octavia Spencer is the only black person with a big chance for an acting nomination at this point.

 

She has the biggest inarguable chance among African Americans for sure.

Edited October 24, 2017 by slambros

[PenguinHyphy]

2 hours ago, slambros said:

 

She has the biggest inarguable chance among African Americans for sure.

 

7 hours ago, Safeno Rdz said:

Octavia Spencer is the only black person with a big chance for an acting nomination at this point.

 

Those are patently false, and I have no idea why people keep listening to those online pundits. 

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

 

 

Those are patently false, and I have no idea why people keep listening to those online pundits. 

Who else has a shot? Roman J. Israel is likely gonna be Denzel's Concussion. And then there is Mary J. Blige and Jason Mitchell, who face an uphill battle with their film being from Netflix.

[WrathOfHan]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Who else has a shot? Roman J. Israel is likely gonna be Denzel's Concussion. And then there is Mary J. Blige and Jason Mitchell, who face an uphill battle with their film being from Netflix.

Idris Elba, who I'm currently predicting. He's a bit overdue for a nomination, and the support in the industry is definitely there as evident by his SAG win a couple years ago.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Idris Elba, who I'm currently predicting. He's a bit overdue for a nomination, and the support in the industry is definitely there as evident by his SAG win a couple years ago.

I really don't think Elba is anywhere close to a sure thing, especially when Chastain isn't in Best Actress and Molly's Game is apparently pretty much her vehicle.

[AndyK]

Fox's consideration page lists Logan and War for the Planet of the Apes

 

https://www.foxscreenings.com/

 

Disney

 

http://disneystudiosawards.com/

 

Is The Last Jedi too late?

Edited October 25, 2017 by AndyK

[SLAM!]

2 hours ago, AndyK said:

Fox's consideration page lists Logan and War for the Planet of the Apes

 

https://www.foxscreenings.com/

 

Disney

 

http://disneystudiosawards.com/

 

Is The Last Jedi too late?

 

The Last Jedi shouldn't be too late. I think they did the same thing last time with The Force Awakens, where they viewed FYC posts as potentially spoilerific. If they, out of the the blue, said "please consider Mark Hamill for Best Supporting Actor", people would expect more out of the performance; so I think the FYC could possibly take certain groups of people out of the film when they try to watch it. I hope it isn't too late.

[WrathOfHan]

Oh shit, Three Billboards is going Drama at the Globes. New predictions for the affected categories:

 

Drama Film:

 

1. Three Billboards

2. The Shape of Water

3. The Post

4. Call Me by Your Name

5. Molly's Game

Alt: Darkest Hour

 

Drama Actress:

 

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards

2. Meryl Streep, The Post

3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

4. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game

5. Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

Alt: Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

 

Comedy Film:

 

1. The Big Sick

2. Get Out (though this might go drama too soooo)

3. Lady Bird

4. I, Tonya

5. The Disaster Artist

Alt: Victoria and Abdul

 

Comedy Actress:

 

1. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

2. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

4. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

5. Emma Watson, Beauty and the Beast (lmao this is totally happening)

Alt: Zoe Kazan, The Big Sick

Edited October 26, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Ethan Hunt]

34 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

5. Emma Watson, Beauty and the Beast (lmao this is totally happening)

 

Don't say such wretched things (it's honestly astonishing how fucking bad she is)

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Don't say such wretched things (it's honestly astonishing how fucking bad she is)

It's going to happen and will be hilarious when it does  

[filmlover]

I'm starting to feel like Three Billboards is the closest thing we have to a Best Picture frontrunner tbh.

[RichWS]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I'm starting to feel like Three Billboards is the closest thing we have to a Best Picture frontrunner tbh.

 

Came here to post that same thought. You can really feel the momentum and consensus building for it. It'll very likely win Screenplay, with Frances having a great shot to win herself. I would still guess Nolan for Director, but I continue to have difficulty seeing it win Picture. Shape of Water will be well-liked; I just have hefty doubts about a genre film like that going all the way.  

Edited October 26, 2017 by RichWS

[WrathOfHan]

10 minutes ago, RichWS said:

 

Came here to post that same thought. You can really feel the momentum and consensus building for it. It'll very likely win Screenplay, with Frances having a great shot to win herself. I would still guess Nolan for Director, but I continue to have difficulty seeing it win Picture. Shape of Water will be well-liked; I just have hefty doubts about a genre film like that going all the way.  

Don't forget SAM ROCKWELL.

 

[filmlover]

Yeah, I feel like Rockwell is gonna end the Supporting Actor frontrunner. Can't really see either of the Call Me by Your Name men going all the way and after seeing the movie, I really don't think Dafoe is winning unless he ends up the critical favorite by a wide margin and starts winning everything.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, I feel like Rockwell is gonna end the Supporting Actor frontrunner. Can't really see either of the Call Me by Your Name men going all the way and after seeing the movie, I really don't think Dafoe is winning unless he ends up the critical favorite by a wide margin and starts winning everything.

I'm not convinced both CMBYN actors are getting in yet. I feel if any movie gets 2 supporting actor nominations, it'll be Shape of Water. Hammer is gaining traction, so I wonder if he could get in and Stuhlbarg gets snubbed.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm not convinced both CMBYN actors are getting in yet. I feel if any movie gets 2 supporting actor nominations, it'll be Shape of Water. Hammer is gaining traction, so I wonder if he could get in and Stuhlbarg gets snubbed.

I'm honestly feeling Jenkins a lot more than Shannon tbh. Shannon's getting solid reviews but nothing Earth-shattering, plus this kind of villain role isn't much of a stretch for him. And he just got nominated again last year after barely missing the year before, meaning they'll likely go for some fresh faces. Jenkins, on the other hand, is a respected veteran whose previous nomination came almost a decade ago (for a tiny movie from April released by a now-dead studio, no less), so there's definitely a much clearer path for him.

 

Of course, the CMBYN actors have their work cut out too. It's been 26 years since the last time a movie got double nominations in this category (Bugsy). That said, CMBYN has the best argument for double nominations here of any film since: Hammer is basically a co-lead who can easily ride Chalamet's coattails to a nomination (plus he's really campaigning so far), while Stuhlbarg is the respected actor with the film's most acclaimed moment of acting who also happens to have potentially three films in the running for Best Picture.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm honestly feeling Jenkins a lot more than Shannon tbh. Shannon's getting solid reviews but nothing Earth-shattering, plus this kind of villain role isn't much of a stretch for him. And he just got nominated again last year after barely missing the year before, meaning they'll likely go for some fresh faces. Jenkins, on the other hand, is a respected veteran whose previous nomination came almost a decade ago (for a tiny movie from April released by a now-dead studio, no less), so there's definitely a much clearer path for him.

 

Of course, the CMBYN actors have their work cut out too. It's been 26 years since the last time a movie got double nominations in this category (Bugsy). That said, CMBYN has the best argument for double nominations here of any film since: Hammer is basically a co-lead who can easily ride Chalamet's coattails to a nomination (plus he's really campaigning so far), while Stuhlbarg is the respected actor with the film's most acclaimed moment of acting who also happens to have potentially three films in the running for Best Picture.

It IS the type of role the Academy likes nominated though; from what reviews say, Jenkins doesn't have a flashy role.

Edited October 26, 2017 by WrathOfHan