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Best Picture predictions-2017!

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Moonlight was also the first LBGT-related movie to win since...Midnight Cowboy? Going by that logic you could say that Call Me by Your Name (which SPC has already confirmed they're saving for a fall release) is a frontrunner because of "narrative" too. We just don't know this far out.

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1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

never forget

 

 

Honestly the BoaN stuff was always going to fail even without Parker's implosion. The film just didn't get that great of a critical reception even coming out of Sundance. No 100's on Metacritic even. BP winners are always in the upper 80s or above on MC, at least since Crash lol.

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On 3/1/2017 at 2:42 PM, moviesRus said:

 

Honestly the BoaN stuff was always going to fail even without Parker's implosion. The film just didn't get that great of a critical reception even coming out of Sundance. No 100's on Metacritic even. BP winners are always in the upper 80s or above on MC, at least since Crash lol.

 

Yep, ever since the Crash year, you pretty much has to have 85+ on MTC to win BP, if we're counting from when the preferential ballot thing started (The Hurt Locker), the lowest scoring BP on MTC is Argo (86), this is the reason I thought Spotlight would be the winner last year considering The Revenant (76) and The Big short (81) did not have high enough MTC scores and were therefore more critically divisive than Spotlight. I agree that BOAN was never actually going to be win BP, not with Moonlight coming out, regardless of the Nate Parker controversy.

Edited by NCsoft
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On 3/1/2017 at 0:59 PM, CoolioD1 said:

never forget

 

 

and people were saying the same thing about La La Land starting last September...

 

Kind of funny what was thought to be the top 3 seeds early in 2016 (BOAN, Billy Lynn, Silence) all fizzled out, and none were even close to a BP nomination.

 

Edited by NCsoft
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19 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

and people were saying the same thing about La La Land starting last September...

 

Kind of funny what was thought to be the top 3 seeds early in 2016 (BOAN, Billy Lynn, Silence) all fizzled out, and none were even close to a BP nomination.

 

 

:sadben:

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Let's see. The BP winners of 2009 and 2010 had Guy Pearce in them, those in 2011 and 2012 had John Goodman, those in 2014 and 2015 had Michael Keaton. 12 Years a Slave is an outlier, however, like the following year's winner Birdman, it was distributed by Fox Searchlight.

 

Going by that logic, next year's winner will either be distributed by A24, or have someone from Moonlight in it. 

 

s1q394E.gif

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3 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Let's see. The BP winners of 2009 and 2010 had Guy Pearce in them, those in 2011 and 2012 had John Goodman, those in 2014 and 2015 had Michael Keaton. 12 Years a Slave is an outlier, however, like the following year's winner Birdman, it was distributed by Fox Searchlight.

 

Going by that logic, next year's winner will either be distributed by A24, or have someone from Moonlight in it. 

 

s1q394E.gif

 

The Netflix-purchased Sundance film, Burning Sands, has Trevante Rhodes in it...

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10 hours ago, Incarnadine said:

Battle of the Sexes odds of getting a nomination just went up as it was just given an Awards Season release date.:D

 

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/emma-stone-battle-of-the-sexes-release-date-1202013416/

 

 

 

 

 

So were Amelia, Nine, Billy Lynn, Suffragette, Hyde Park on Hudson, Hitchcock...

 

I really wish distributors learned some lessons from 2014. Save the end of the year for the prestige projects that simply won't be finished until then and for stuff that makes a last-minute surprise splash at Venice or Toronto (like Jackie). This movie started shooting a year ago, so it's probably been in the can for a while. If it's good enough, a summer release won't hurt its Oscar chances. 

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i could actually see get out getting a best screenplay nomination. i can see the critics awards going for it as a cool choice in that category and bring its name back in the conversation, kinda like w/ the lobster last year.

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