filmlover Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Newest predictions (in case there are 9): The Big Sick Call Me by Your Name Dunkirk Get Out Lady Bird I, Tonya The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri The Big Sick and I, Tonya are in the last two spots. On the outside looking in is The Florida Project to take one of them out. Molly's Game has been making a nice showing at the guilds but I really doubt it's getting in Picture when Chastain isn't happening in Actress (Hawkins/McDormand/Robbie/Ronan are all safe and Meryl is, well, Meryl). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 (edited) After PGA/SAG combo, I can't see The Big Sick missing here. It's in with the other 7 we all know. After these 8 movies, there is still a fierce fight between Florida Project, I Tonya, Molly's Game, Phantom Thread and (still) Darkest Hour. Edited January 8, 2018 by stripe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 This might be the most unpredictable year ever and I am enjoying the race a lot. 5 movies look as possible winners. IMHO, from more to less probable BP win. Get Out, 3 Billboards, Lady Bird, The Post, and Shape of Water Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 57 minutes ago, stripe said: This might be the most unpredictable year ever and I am enjoying the race a lot. 5 movies look as possible winners. IMHO, from more to less probable BP win. Get Out, 3 Billboards, Lady Bird, The Post, and Shape of Water Is "Get Out" more possible winner?!?!?! No chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Basically each and every prediction this year should be made based on how much it fits the "female empowerment" theme. Lady Bird is simply winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Get Out is 100% out of the competition. Racism is left aside this year. It is feminism that will dominate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said: Get Out is 100% out of the competition. Racism is left aside this year. It is feminism that will dominate. Absolutely. And we have only three frontrunners: Three Billboards, The Shape of Water and Lady Bird. Just wait for PGA and SAG winners. I think t we'll get split again: Guillermo will take "Best Director" and Billboards - Best picture. And script, of course. And best female leading role (depends who will win the SAG). Edited January 8, 2018 by KeepItU25071906 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 (edited) And Greta Gerwig should replace possible Spielberg in the "Best Director" list of nominee. Not cause "she is woman .... blah-blah... we need more woman in the industry blah-blah" but she deserve it. Spectacular debut. Edited January 8, 2018 by KeepItU25071906 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 What most people do not understand though, both from the left and the right is that it's not like the Academy is so sensitive to social issues and stuff. They have a show and they are trying to make it as appealing possible. So, in a year that the Weinstein scandal was one of the biggest stories, it is normal that what will make headlines and increase publicity is awards going to movies or people supporting the idea of female empowerment. I don't agree with the idea of the awards being politically driven either but it is also understendable from their perspective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 (edited) 24 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said: What most people do not understand though, both from the left and the right is that it's not like the Academy is so sensitive to social issues and stuff. They have a show and they are trying to make it as appealing possible. So, in a year that the Weinstein scandal was one of the biggest stories, it is normal that what will make headlines and increase publicity is awards going to movies or people supporting the idea of female empowerment. I don't agree with the idea of the awards being politically driven either but it is also understendable from their perspective. Descrimination exists. 100% true. (in my country this on the very high disgusting level) But... Last time I've heard motto "Give the nomination woman cause she is a woman". So, this is war for equals rights, equal opportunities or just march against men? We have to look at the quality of worker, artist, etc. Not gender. If we have 5 women in list and they desrve it- great. If we have 5 man and they deserved it- also great. But if we must get nomination woman cause she is a woman - fuck off. Hello, Natalie Portman. Edited January 8, 2018 by KeepItU25071906 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 hours ago, stripe said: After PGA/SAG combo, I can't see The Big Sick missing here. It's in with the other 7 we all know. After these 8 movies, there is still a fierce fight between Florida Project, I Tonya, Molly's Game, Phantom Thread and (still) Darkest Hour. Nominees #8-9 are The Big Sick and I, Tonya. Everything else really isn't in the conversation at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The large amount of female driven BP candidates (3 billboards, Shape, Lady Bird) can easily split votes and allow other strong candidates to surge. And I believe AMPAS is really prepared to embrace a popular crossgenre hit everyone loved. I am not saying Get Out will win. But its staying power, theme, relevance and success are going to be important factors Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, stripe said: The large amount of female driven BP candidates (3 billboards, Shape, Lady Bird) can easily split votes and allow other strong candidates to surge. And I believe AMPAS is really prepared to embrace a popular crossgenre hit everyone loved. I am not saying Get Out will win. But its staying power, theme, relevance and success are going to be important factors I understand, and I love Get Out, but her's the thing: Jordan peele movie has 0% chance win BP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Yeah, Get Out is not in contention to win anymore. I think it's gonna come down to Three Billboards and Lady Bird (and expecting the latter to prevail in the end). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 hour ago, KeepItU25071906 said: Descrimination exists. 100% true. (in my country this on the very high disgusting level) But... Last time I've heard motto "Give the nomination woman cause she is a woman". So, this is war for equals rights, equal opportunities or just march against men? We have to look at the quality of worker, artist, etc. Not gender. If we have 5 women in list and they desrve it- great. If we have 5 man and they deserved it- also great. But if we must get nomination woman cause she is a woman - fuck off. Hello, Natalie Portman. It's a complicated issue and I think I am kinda in the middle. Both the far right and far left are wrong on the issue IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 23 minutes ago, filmlover said: Nominees #8-9 are The Big Sick and I, Tonya. Everything else really isn't in the conversation at this point. Which conversations? There is a lot of noise still surrounding films like Florida Project (indie's choice, lot of critic prizes), Molly's game (last minute surge), Phantom Thread (they love PTA, movie has its devotes), and Darkest Hour (solid BO run, and AMPAS love this kind of movies more than critics/globes/guilds) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, stripe said: Which conversations? There is a lot of noise still surrounding films like Florida Project (indie's choice, lot of critic prizes), Molly's game (last minute surge), Phantom Thread (they love PTA, movie has its devotes), and Darkest Hour (solid BO run, and AMPAS love this kind of movies more than critics/globes/guilds) - The Florida Project hasn't really been showing up for anything beyond Dafoe - it's very likely he'll be that film's lone nomination. - Molly's Game's surge hasn't been that strong, and it's hard to imagine the film getting nominated for Picture while Chastain misses Best Actress (the Hawkins/McDormand/Robbie/Ronan/Streep line-up is close to set in stone). - Phantom Thread is shaping up to be this year's Jackie and will likely duplicate its nomination tally (acting nom, costume design, score). - Darkest Hour's guild performance has been poor as well despite box office. Unless BAFTA revives it tomorrow (doubtful), it'll have to settle for a Best Actor win and a tech nom or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 hours ago, stripe said: The large amount of female driven BP candidates (3 billboards, Shape, Lady Bird) can easily split votes and allow other strong candidates to surge. And I believe AMPAS is really prepared to embrace a popular crossgenre hit everyone loved. I am not saying Get Out will win. But its staying power, theme, relevance and success are going to be important factors Eh, not in Hollywood which dumps narratives like old socks. I may catch a lot of flack for saying this, but they are a bunch of phonies who do everything for the show. Right now, the narrative is driven by Weinstein scandal so they think their fashion display of support with black gowns and MeToo pins is so going to change how things are done. Typical show-business response - more red carpet show. OscarsSoWhite is yesterday news, did you really think they will care for that narrative in the wake of another, trendier one? See, that's the problem with them. They always make a big deal out of ONE thing instead of being consistent in their support of everyone. They always need a NEW thing to congratulate themselves about. Bunch of phonies, I'm telling you. So now they are celebrating a movie that's basically a vigilante justice fantasy flick that even glorifies a racist character just because he jumped on the wagon with the vigilante mama. All because the narrative this year is justice for women, not justice for other minorities. otherwise, they would have snubbed female-drive movies like they always do (since Million Dollar Baby if I'm not mistaken) and will continue to do so starting next year cause something else is going to be trendy and get its own cool support pin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 billboards is in the best position right now but it's the same position that la la land, the revenant, boyhood and American hustle were in the last four years. Still that, get out and lady bird are definitely the top 3. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 (edited) 8 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: 3 billboards is in the best position right now but it's the same position that la la land, the revenant, boyhood and American hustle were in the last four years. Still that, get out and lady bird are definitely the top 3. Good. 3B is running the risk of peaking too early though I'm not putting as much stock on backlash as some on Awards Watch do. I'll believe it when I see it. Edited January 8, 2018 by Valonqar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
