Best Picture predictions-2017!

[Mrwick]

4 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Get Out is 100% out of the competition. Racism is left aside this year. It is feminism that will dominate.

Yeah long gone are the days where the best movie actually wins

[filmlover]

I feel like a good portion of the reason La La Land lost last year was because the backlash against the film became so heated by the time Oscar night arrived (after all, it was a film about a pair of white people following their dreams with its closest competitor being an LBGT-themed indie with African American characters). It's too early to say if Three Billboards will follow suit (needless to say, it's not gonna catch on with the public the same way La La Land did even with awards - it won't even make a third of that film's total) but it wouldn't be too much of a surprise if the preferential ballot just leads to the frontrunner people have the least problems with winning.

Edited January 8, 2018 by filmlover

[stripe]

In early December, Get Out was a longshot in categories such as Best Actor, Editing and Director. It even got an ensemble SAG nom. If not for that feminism argument, it would be the clearest contender for the win.

 

Backlash for Three billboards is already here, slowly increasing. Let's see if it's strong enough once final ballots come.

 

Lady Bird is the most plausible female pic winner, IMHO.

[Valonqar]

LLL wasn't good enough for BP so it's no loss. I don't think that Moonlight was good enough either but it was AMPAS chance to award a gay-themed movie thus atoning for Brokeback and they'll never awards a gay themed movie about white people. Too close to home. Old geezers just won't vote and that's that. They can't deal with it but they can when it's happening to minorities. People think Moonlight only won for OscarsSoWhite but nope, being a black gay movie gave it a leg up with the crowd that usually snubs movies about queers (Brokeback, Carol, soon CMBYN). It was their chance to look good without feeling conflicted and they took it.

Edited January 8, 2018 by Valonqar

[titanic2187]

8 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

LLL wasn't good enough for BP so it's no loss. I don't think that Moonlight was good enough either but it was AMPAS chance to award a gay-themed movie thus atoning for Brokeback and they'll never awards a gay themed movie about white people. Too close to home. Old geezers just won't vote and that's that. They can't deal with it but they can when it's happening to minorities. People think Moonlight only won for OscarsSoWhite but nope, being a black gay movie gave it a leg up with the crowd that usually snubs movies about queers (Brokeback, Carol, soon CMBYN). It was their chance to look good without feeling conflicted and they took it.

make moonlight won be like killing two birds with one stone, cater the needs of colour people while LGBT group.....instead of rewarding 2 movies in 2 different year....

 

While moonlight is a very good movie to me, I don't like coming of age story, but moonlight managed to change my prejudice, it's visual poem while I certainly don't know poem can be visualized in this way, and a friend of mine said, "sex" scene in moonlight was the 1st same-sex kiss that didn't disgust him....

[titanic2187]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

Nominees #8-9 are The Big Sick and I, Tonya. Everything else really isn't in the conversation at this point.

I, Tonya and big sick are really surging in late-run while early frontrunner dunkirk.....while earning dozens of mention and nomination, it's still remain as "notable mention" across the season.....

 

i smell inception 2.0 at oscar is coming....

[titanic2187]

6 hours ago, stripe said:

This might be the most unpredictable year ever and I am enjoying the race a lot. 5 movies look as possible winners. IMHO, from more to less probable BP win.

Get Out, 3 Billboards, Lady Bird, The Post, and Shape of Water

 

 

indeed, only 88th oscar could be this "messed up" in recent year

84th was the year of that french movie swapped across....

85th was clearly the year for argo despite director snub...

86th was gravity vs 12 years a slave

87th was birdman vs boyhood

89th was la la land all the way until very very end.....

[Carlangonz]

38 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I feel like a good portion of the reason La La Land lost last year was because the backlash against the film became so heated

This

 

Many voters choosed Moonlight not because they thought that it was their favorite or to support the topic, it was because they wanted La La Land not to win and it seemed the best option.

[Cmasterclay]

I liked La La Land a ton but Moonlight was both slightly better and it feels it had the weight behind it to age well. It was a close race and enough people felt the same. It's not some grand conspiracy worthy of these ferocious debates, which usually end with people putting down Moonlight. 

[WrathOfHan]

7 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

3 billboards is in the best position right now but it's the same position that the revenant were in the last four years. 

Nah, it was still a close race between that, TBS, and Spotlight (less of the third one tho)

Edited January 8, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[SLAM!]

5 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I liked La La Land a ton but Moonlight was both slightly better and it feels it had the weight behind it to age well. It was a close race and enough people felt the same. It's not some grand conspiracy worthy of these ferocious debates, which usually end with people putting down Moonlight. 

 

That's a question voters- who better be taking their position seriously, as awards can affect people's futures- should be asking themselves when they fill out their preferential ballots.

 

"Will this film age well?"

 

'Tis a question that should be asked, but a question not asked enough in the past twenty years of the awards (Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan, A Beautiful Mind over Moulin Rouge, Crash over Brokeback Mountain, The King's Speech over The Social Network). Of course, they've gotten better at choosing films that will have a long-lasting impact on film as a whole (12 Years a Slave, Birdman, Spotlight).

 

I think the Academy has learned quite a few lessons in their past. Of course, a film already has to meet certain threshold of competence for campaigns to work, though these days, in the savvy social media and internet age, voters have the ability to know better. They have the ability to know *much* better. And in my opinion, they'd showed that they do, in fact, know better.

[Joel M]

I've been following the oscars since 2000. The only years we weren't 100% sure what's winning BP before oscar night:

 

2000: Gladiator-Crouching Tiger-Traffic

2006: Departed-LMS-Babel

2015: Spotlight-Revenant-Big Short

 

and there were the 2 years we were 100% sure but wrong.

 

2005: Brokeback-Crash

2016: LLL-Moonlight

 

But there's a scenario this year could be the most insane ever. SOW wins DGA, Get Out wins PGA, 3billboards wins SAG and LB wins WGA. And then nolan/dunkirk win at the BAFTA's which could happen even with Dunkirk not being much of a factor in the race because it was huge in the UK.

 

 

[filmlover]

At this point I'm convinced I, Tonya is making it. It's peaking at the perfect time.

 

So I'm officially predicting 8 this year:

 

Call Me by Your Name

Dunkirk

Get Out

I, Tonya

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

[MovieMan89]

I actually feel like Dunkirk (and Nolan for BD) could get snubbed. The movie just isn't showing much of any momentum during this awards season and seems completely lost in the conversation already and we all know the Academy's track record with Nolan as it is. Summer release may have hurt it. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by MovieMan89

[SLAM!]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I actually feel like Dunkirk (and Nolan for BD) could get snubbed. The movie just isn't showing much of any momentum during this awards season and seems completely lost in the conversation already and we all know the Academy's track record with Nolan as it is. Summer release may have hurt it. 

 

In my opinion, Dunkirk is not a film that is capable of being snubbed going by its merit.

[KeepItU25071906]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I actually feel like Dunkirk (and Nolan for BD) could get snubbed. The movie just isn't showing much of any momentum during this awards season and seems completely lost in the conversathaveion already and we all know the Academy's track record with Nolan as it is. Summer release may have hurt it. 

Summer haven't hurt "Mad Max",  February haven't hurt "Get Out", etc.

 

No chance  for ""Dunkirk" could  get snubbed". It's 100% nomination.

Edited January 12, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I actually feel like Dunkirk (and Nolan for BD) could get snubbed. The movie just isn't showing much of any momentum during this awards season and seems completely lost in the conversation already and we all know the Academy's track record with Nolan as it is. Summer release may have hurt it. 

It's WB's main push and it's been hitting all of the guilds that it needed to hit to get in. It's safe.

[Valonqar]

I'm sure of 3B, Get Out, TSOW, Lady Bird and Dunkirk because those 5 are looking like BD line-up as well. Then comes CMBYN whose director may crash the party and kick out someone or may not. After all, AMPAS awarded a gay-themed movie finally last year so they are in no hurry for a repeat. Beyond these candidates, anything is a fare game. 

 

I'm most interested to see whether AMPAS will do the right thing and snub Meryl, who isn't in it to win it anyway so why hold the spot and block another deserving actress, allowing Jessica/Judy/Michelle/Annette to take the 5th. Right now, Francis/Sheesha/Sally/Margot look rock solid while 5th spot is open. 

 

Likewise, actors line up seems to lock Timmy/Garry/Danny with other 2 spots in the flux, though James may get in cause allegations dropped close to the end of the voting period, perhaps not enough time to affect him (plus he won GG). 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Valonqar

[The Panda]

5 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I actually feel like Dunkirk (and Nolan for BD) could get snubbed. The movie just isn't showing much of any momentum during this awards season and seems completely lost in the conversation already and we all know the Academy's track record with Nolan as it is. Summer release may have hurt it. 

It won’t get snubbed, it may not be winning much but it’s consistently showing up at every precursor

[Webslinger]

On 1/8/2018 at 8:19 AM, filmlover said:

I feel like a good portion of the reason La La Land lost last year was because the backlash against the film became so heated by the time Oscar night arrived (after all, it was a film about a pair of white people following their dreams with its closest competitor being an LBGT-themed indie with African American characters). It's too early to say if Three Billboards will follow suit (needless to say, it's not gonna catch on with the public the same way La La Land did even with awards - it won't even make a third of that film's total) but it wouldn't be too much of a surprise if the preferential ballot just leads to the frontrunner people have the least problems with winning.

I agree with this post, but I'd take the analysis of La La Land's backlash even further by arguing that it was probably inspired - at least in part - by the fact that it was racking up nomination and award after nomination and award (sometimes in record numbers) almost all precursor season long. By the time it got 14 Oscar nominations, it was such a behemoth that I imagine more than a few voters were turned off by relative disappointment. It's a great movie (my favorite of last year, even), but if you go in expecting a simple but really well-executed musical to be All Things to All People, the odds of coming out disappointed go way, way up.

 

That comparative lack of hype is something Three Billboards has going for it, but I'm still not sure that carries it to a win even if the precursor support is there.