Best Picture predictions-2017!

[MrPink]

I suspect if Dunkirk makes any kind of splash, it's gonna happen at BAFTA's for being 100% pure unfiltered British. But it's locked for Best Pic nominations (by virtue of expanded categories) and probably close to that for Director as well 

 

Edited January 12, 2018 by MrPink

[Valonqar]

Since BAFTA nominated 3B in British Film and Best Picture, there's no doubt which movie's gonna make a splash there.

 

It's over. The only fight now is to stop McDonagh to Hooper his way to Best Director win.

Edited January 12, 2018 by Valonqar

[BardCrank]

McDonagh is not winning director ( Most probably ) 

lately BP and BD have parted ways with one going to the technically challenging movie and the other to the most " subject of the moment " movie 

IMO GDT has it in the bag 

[The Panda]

BD used to have a strong correlation to BP, I think preferential ballot and expanded field is really changing that.

 

Theres been a split 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017 (and now likely 2018).  The split is becoming more of a norm.

Edited January 12, 2018 by New Year New Panda

[CoolioD1]

29 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said:

BD used to have a strong correlation to BP, I think preferential ballot and expanded field is really changing that.

 

Theres been a split 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017 (and now likely 2018).  The split is becoming more of a norm.

the splits started the argo year and every year since then the movie that won best cinematography also won best director. so maybe now the correlation is less "the best director made the best movie" and more "the best director made the prettiest movie"

[MovieMan89]

The split IS the norm now, not becoming. Until we see a noticeable trend over several years where BP/BD are the same, which isn't starting this year unless SoW miraculously wins BP. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Valonqar]

Yes, the split is the norm cause directors whose directing is a marvel usually have movies that are not deemed important enough to win. It goes with the territory - action (The Revenant, Dunkirk), sci fi (Gravity), fantasy (Life of Pi, TSOW), musical (LLL)  require virtuosity that political and drama stuff don't (12YS, Spotlight, Moonlight, 3B). Important movies can get away with directorial blandness hence why their directors rightfully miss in favor of superior directors. 

 

of course, there's always Tom Hooper. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Valonqar

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Valonqar said:

Yes, the split is the norm cause directors whose directing is a marvel usually have movies that are not deemed important enough to win. It goes with the territory - action (The Revenant), sci fi (Gravity), fantasy (Life of Pi, TSOW), musical (LLL)  require virtuosity that political and drama stuff doesn't (12YS, Spotlight, Moonlight, 3B). Important movies can get away with directorial blandness hence why their directors rightfully miss in favor of superior directors. 

In my opinion, this is just a hallmark of the Academy's stubborness to adapt from their crusty set ways and realize a BP doesn't have to fit one mold. That and wanting to make a political statement lately every year. Lady Bird really does seem like a shoe in to win given what they've been doing the last several years. 

[CoolioD1]

either lady bird or get out could both win best picture and nothing else. mark it down.

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

In my opinion, this is just a hallmark of the Academy's stubborness to adapt from their crusty set ways and realize a BP doesn't have to fit one mold. That and wanting to make a political statement lately every year. Lady Bird really does seem like a shoe in to win given what they've been doing the last several years. 

 

@CoolioD1 Hopefully. No to 3B. 

[filmlover]

I can definitely see a scenario where Lady Bird wins Best Picture and nothing else.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

either lady bird or get out could both win best picture and nothing else. mark it down.

Nah, no chance for GO. The Academy feel way too good about themselves for awarding 12YAS and Moonlight in the past few years. And GO is horror, which is the final death knell for it winning. 

[aabattery]

6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Yes, the split is the norm cause directors whose directing is a marvel usually have movies that are not deemed important enough to win. It goes with the territory - action (The Revenant, Dunkirk), sci fi (Gravity), fantasy (Life of Pi, TSOW), musical (LLL)  require virtuosity that political and drama stuff don't (12YS, Spotlight, Moonlight, 3B). Important movies can get away with directorial blandness hence why their directors rightfully miss in favor of superior directors. 

 

of course, there's always Tom Hooper. 

 

Superior directors? They're going for different things. Just because the "political and drama stuff" don't have any IMAX cameras being catapulted into brick walls doesn't mean that they're inherently less well directed.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

 

Superior directors? They're going for different things. Just because the "political and drama stuff" don't have any IMAX cameras being catapulted into brick walls doesn't mean that they're inherently less well directed.

Agreed.

 

PGA next week is gonna be telling IMO. If Three Billboards loses there, it's in no way a surefire frontrunner.

[CoolioD1]

calling moonlight blandly directed makes noooo sense to me.

 

but just to get my thought it on this i'm not a fan of this new recent trend. it's like the directing version of hammy overacting always getting oscars OMMMMG IT WAS ALL DONE IN ONE TAKE is what gets directing oscars now. whatever.

[Valonqar]

I found both Moonlight and LLL to be bland af and forgettable so I don't understand the argument that Moonlight robbed LLL. Shitty forgettable movie was going to win so it didn't matter whether it was a shitty musical or a shitty social activism of the week movie. Neither was deserving, IMO. 

 

I was really disappointed that Chazelle followed amazing Whiplash with...that. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Valonqar

[CoolioD1]

if you're only looking at it from the superficial and weird perspective of "eww it's about a black gay guy" that's really the only way i could understand seeing moonlight as a "social activism movie"

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

if you're only looking at it from the superficial and weird perspective of "eww it's about a black gay guy" that's really the only way i could understand seeing moonlight as a "social activism movie"

to its credit, the movie wasn't political at all. But it was given a political narrative so perception is that it won for that reason, even though the movie itself isn't even close. 

 

IMO, it won cause AMPAS will never award a white gay move but knew they had to atone for Brokeback. All those closet gays that make majority of AMPAS are not gonna vote for movies that hit too close to home, no matter how pro-gay rights they like to appear. 

[aabattery]

18 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

to its credit, the movie wasn't political at all. But it was given a political narrative so perception is that it won for that reason, even though the movie itself isn't even close. 

 

IMO, it won cause AMPAS will never award a white gay move but knew they had to atone for Brokeback. All those closet gays that make majority of AMPAS are not gonna vote for movies that hit too close to home, no matter how pro-gay rights they like to appear. 

 

C'mon now. Knock that stuff off.

[Webslinger]

I don't think many Academy members were truly motivated by the need to make a social statement with Moonlight. If that had been the primary force behind Moonlight's Best Picture support, it would have been the clear frontrunner for the win throughout the season, especially in a year as ripe for political statements as last year. More than anything else, it was a film that had enough passion to secure a comfortable number of #1 ballots and enough consensus admiration to nab a high spot on many other ballots. If the Academy at large had been trying to make a political statement with its win, that win wouldn't have been the shocking upset it ended up being; you can bet they would have banged their drums loudly and publicly in the weeks leading up to the broadcast.