Black Adam | October 21, 2022 | New Line | Don't worry, it's a hit. Dwayne Johnson says so!

[ChipDerby]

This will do fine. Shazam is the minimum this will do. He dragged Jungle Cruise to $117 mil, GI Joe to $122 mil. If this misses $150 mil, it would have to be really bad.

 

First guess, I'd say around a $65-70 mil OW, with $180 mil total.

[cax16]

12 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I always thought this was floppy.

 

Rock is a star but his track record isn't flawless or even good lol. DC is not to be trusted. For every hit, they nearly followup with a disappointment. General audiences have no investment. Add in the fact the trailer turned out to be not "great", wasn't exactly hyped up or premiered during a sporting event, and Black Adam is a very obscure (for mainstream) character...

I don’t think this will flop but I never understood the people saying huge numbers for this. Maybe for a second movie if this one turns out well it can do bigger numbers but your other points are right, DC hasn’t really been consistent so they don’t have that huge fan base to start off with. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, cax16 said:

I don’t think this will flop but I never understood the people saying huge numbers for this. Maybe for a second movie if this one turns out well it can do bigger numbers but your other points are right, DC hasn’t really been consistent so they don’t have that huge fan base to start off with. 

I was thinking like 150-160 domestic?

[Krissykins]

5 minutes ago, cax16 said:

IAlso, How can you say Shang chi is a bad example when it’s teaser trailer or whatever has 30m views, that’s how many the Batman has for both its trailers. My point I’m making is that even the most “popular” dc characters trailer barely compare to the average mc trailer and don’t even come near any movie with any semblance of hype. 

So why does it matter then if trailer views, in that example, don’t translate to box office anyway? 

[cax16]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

So why does it matter then if trailer views, in that example, don’t translate to box office anyway? 

I don’t think trailer views matter at all. Is that what you’re asking me?

Edited June 8, 2022 by cax16

[Menor the Destroyer]

Trailer views for origin movies tend to be a bit dicier, especially unknown DC character without the benefit of MCU fanbase to boost the numbers. I won't put too much stock into trailer views for this without a good comp, but am not expecting anything huge from it anyway. If it's good, it should do fine. If not, it probably won't. 

 

As for the trailer itself, it looks like it has potential, but still didn't totally grab me. 

 

8 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

So why does it matter then if trailer views, in that example, don’t translate to box office anyway? 

 

You can glean decent information from trailer views if you have the right comp. I am not sure what you guys are seeing that has Shang-Chi trailer views equal to Batman. Batman trailer 1 has significantly more views than Shang-Chi trailer 1, and Batman trailer 2 utterly destroys Shang-Chi trailer 2 in views. Batman trailer 2 has 54m views on YouTube as far as I can tell and Shang-Chi trailer 2 with just 29. Likes 1.2m to 556k. 

 

(just comparing main channels here, but I think if you include all channels, Batman's lead only widens)

Edited June 8, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, cax16 said:

I don’t think trailer views matter at all. Is that what you’re asking me?

Sorry I got mixed up. 
 

 

[cax16]

8 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Trailer views for origin movies tend to be a bit dicier, especially unknown DC character without the benefit of MCU fanbase to boost the numbers. I won't put too much stock into trailer views for this without a good comp, but am not expecting anything huge from it anyway. If it's good, it should do fine. If not, it probably won't. 

 

As for the trailer itself, it looks like it has potential, but still didn't totally grab me. 

 

 

You can glean decent information from trailer views if you have the right comp. I am not sure what you guys are seeing that has Shang-Chi trailer views equal to Batman. Batman trailer 1 has significantly more views than Shang-Chi trailer 1, and Batman trailer 2 utterly destroys Shang-Chi trailer 2 in views. Batman trailer 2 has 54m views on YouTube as far as I can tell and Shang-Chi trailer 2 with just 29. Likes 1.2m to 556k. 

This is my bad lol, I don’t know why my YouTube was saying those numbers for the respective trailers, I just updated my app and it says the numbers you guys are saying. My apologies @Fox20

 

Edited June 8, 2022 by cax16

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, SnokesLegs said:

I’m sorry but The Suicide Squad absolutely did have online hype, the first trailer was everywhere when it dropped, King Shark in particular was definitely trending. It didn’t translate to ticket sales, but to say it didn’t have social media hype is not accurate at all.

It had hype in fanbase circles maybe, but trailer views were awful. 

[SnokesLegs]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

It had hype in fanbase circles maybe, but trailer views were awful. 

Probably true, and I suppose I was seeing the hype from within my Twitter bubble, but compared to Black Adam’s social media imprint so far it was huge. I’m surprised by just how quiet Black Adam seems to have been.

[SupermanLego]

Furthermore to say DC can't create any hype to the big marvel flicks is just absurd. Look at joker nearly 100m views on youtube (trailer) when that joker 2 trailer lands it's going to be huge......and if (which they won't) make a batman/joker crossover (Joaquin) movie it will do GANGBUSTERS......the bad thing about the DCEU it's really far behind. It just needs good consistency from it's movies to have the ingrained hype of the mcu

[cax16]

Just now, SnokesLegs said:

Probably true, and I suppose I was seeing the hype from within my Twitter bubble, but compared to Black Adam’s social media imprint so far it was huge. I’m surprised by just how quiet Black Adam seems to have been.

Black adam trended number 1 for a few hours and top 20 for like 9 hours in the states. I’m not even sure if TSS ever did that tbh. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Probably true, and I suppose I was seeing the hype from within my Twitter bubble, but compared to Black Adam’s social media imprint so far it was huge. I’m surprised by just how quiet Black Adam seems to have been.

As far as I can see Black Adam has more likes than any of the TSS trailers already on the main channel, views should get there as well (as they tend to be more backloaded than likes). I think the hype for Black Adam is definitely higher. 

Edited June 8, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[cax16]

3 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

Furthermore to say DC can't create any hype to the big marvel flicks is just absurd. Look at joker nearly 100m views on youtube (trailer) when that joker 2 trailer lands it's going to be huge......and if (which they won't) make a batman/joker crossover (Joaquin) movie it will do GANGBUSTERS......the bad thing about the DCEU it's really far behind. It just needs good consistency from it's movies to have the ingrained hype of the mcu

Not sure any DC movie ever hits the highs of the mcu (box office wise)but consistency is key ya. 

[SupermanLego]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

As far as I can see Black Adam has more likes than any of the TSS trailers already on the main channel, views should get there as well (as they tend to be more backloaded than likes). I think the hype for Black Adam is definitely higher. 

Yhyh black adam is going to do way more business than TSS but all it's metric are so LOW.....i thought even with the rock it would do like GOOD like at least 10+M views already on twitter and youtube...but NO. It's strange.

Edited June 8, 2022 by SupermanLego

[SnokesLegs]

6 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Black adam trended number 1 for a few hours and top 20 for like 9 hours in the states. I’m not even sure if TSS ever did that tbh. 

 

6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

As far as I can see Black Adam has more likes than any of the TSS trailers already on the main channel, views should get there as well (as they tend to be more backloaded than likes). I think the hype for Black Adam is definitely higher. 

Consider me well and truly corrected 😂

[cax16]

1 minute ago, SnokesLegs said:

 

Consider me well and truly corrected 😂

Eh, I was really wrong about the trailer views lol, it happens. 

[Brainbug]

This looks very cliché to me.

[cax16]

1 hour ago, SupermanLego said:

What shang chi trailer ? loool

I screwed up, this was my bad. 

 

1 hour ago, SupermanLego said:

it has only 1.6m views on twitter.....that is BAD.

I never said the views were good, i didn’t even look at numbers. I just don’t think the views matter for this at this point, it seems like it was being discussed a lot on Twitter if it trended that long. I don’t know how things will work out for the movie but I wasn’t expecting this to be huge. 

[Avatree]

looks like something from 2002 not 2022.

 

(not necessarily a bad thing.)