Terminator: Dark Fate | Nov 1 2019 | Estimated to lose 122.6M

[Captain Craig]

11 hours ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

This is the fifth Terminator trilogy that will never happen.

 

The first being Terminator, T-2, and Cameron's initial plans for T3 in the late 90s.

 

The second being the soft-reboot T3, with new stars Nick Stahl and Claire Danes, who were expected to lead sequels.

 

The third being the Salvation trilogy ("Terminator Salvation: The Future Begins" being the initial title for Salvation)

 

The fourth being the Genisys trilogy.

 

The fifth being the Dark Fate trilogy.

 

 

I can't think of another franchise that has failed so freaking much.

Rise of the Machines was never a "soft reboot". It was the fulfillment of one crucial aspect of the mythos to date. Judgement Day will come and it did. Salvation, true enough, was designed as part 1 of a Future War trilogy. It too though was a continuation of the 3 films that preceded it. 

T1-->Salvation + Sarah Connor Chronicles is one shared mostly in tact continuity(nit picks aside).

 

Genisys and Dark Fate are failed orphaned entries in a saga that never materialized.

[tonytr87]

1 hour ago, Captain Craig said:

Rise of the Machines was never a "soft reboot". It was the fulfillment of one crucial aspect of the mythos to date. Judgement Day will come and it did. Salvation, true enough, was designed as part 1 of a Future War trilogy. It too though was a continuation of the 3 films that preceded it. 

T1-->Salvation + Sarah Connor Chronicles is one shared mostly in tact continuity(nit picks aside).

 

Genisys and Dark Fate are failed orphaned entries in a saga that never materialized.

 

This is true. Anton Yelchin was cast as Kyle Reese in Salvation because he kinda looked like a young Michael Beihn. 

[REC]

I don't know why anyone at the studio thought this movie could succeed.  When the last 3 Terminator movies are all various degrees of either objectively bad or just disappointing for fans, what would make anyone think that a 4th stab at some kind of T2 sequel could work?

 

I expected it to be a critical failure.  Didn't really expect it to financially bomb this hard (I figured maybe break even with a strong marketing push), but I guess looking at the final trailers and general marketing it makes sense.  The signature scene shows them fighting in the desert on a bridge... this has 2 problems:  It doesn't show us anything new, and it looks somewhat cheap.  I don't understand how this marketing was meant to get people into the theater.

 

And if you're wondering how a 70% on RT proves that it's bad, look at the actual critic average.  The actual critic average is 6.21/10, not the RT weighted-up 7/10.  62% is mediocre.  Among top critics, which I think is more reliable anyway, the movie is 55%.  The movie needed to add about 30 points to their critic score to have a chance here.

Edited November 5, 2019 by REC

[DlAMONDZ]

Paramount suits need their heads checked out. Why the fuck would they give this a budget close to 200m after Genysis?

[sabrecmc]

It's too bad so many of these 80s franchises seem to have fizzled.  I still think there is an interesting story to tell here, especially nowadays with AI and lack of privacy becoming a real thing.  Could have been relevant in a different way than just a rehash.  It does seem crazy to spend that much money without Cameron actually directing, because after the last few, if you are going to go big, you really had to hit it out of the ballpark with this.  A shame, really. I like Arnold and Hamilton a lot, but they can only do so much with the material.  Too bad Cameron is so Avatar obsessed. If he was going to really get into one of his properties, I wish it had been something like Terminator instead of that, but alas, he seems to only be truly interested in that at the moment. 

[Deuce66]

3 hours ago, DlAMONDZ said:

Paramount suits need their heads checked out. Why the fuck would they give this a budget close to 200m after Genysis?

 

The pain is going to shared.

 

Dark Fate faces losses of $120 million-plus for partners Skydance Media, Paramount Pictures and 20th Century Fox, which each put up 30 percent of the $185 million budget (Disney, which now owns the Fox film studio, will absorb the loss), sources tell The Hollywood Reporter. China's Tencent has a 10 percent stake.

 

[dudalb]

3 hours ago, DlAMONDZ said:

Paramount suits need their heads checked out. Why the fuck would they give this a budget close to 200m after Genysis?

I suspect they thought that James Cameron being involved was a guarantee of huge box office. Turned out not to be true.

[Laurent K]

So the movie will make 75 M in the USA and 300+ww. 

Is it really that bad ?

i'm not sure.

    

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, Laurent K said:

300+ww

Is it? Let's see this week first...

 

And yes, 300 would be very bad, lol. 400 would be bad, let alone 300.

Edited November 5, 2019 by reddevil19

[dudalb]

7 minutes ago, Laurent K said:

So the movie will make 75 M in the USA and 300+ww. 

Is it really that bad ?

i'm not sure.

    

Given the 180 to 200 Million budget ,..which means a break even point of around 400 million, yeah, it's pretty bad.

Projected losses are around 100 Million dollars. I think that qualifies as bad.

And it might not even make 300 Million.

 

Edited November 5, 2019 by dudalb

[Zakiyyah6]

It's not a lock to make 300mil.

[Barnack]

17 minutes ago, Laurent K said:

So the movie will make 75 M in the USA and 300+ww. 

Is it really that bad ?

i'm not sure.

That weak domestic relative to the budget is really hard to come back from, considering the price tag rumored to be significantly above After Earth $148M budget, it does seem headed to a very similar performance to that one. After Earth lost $62.52M with no one having pre break even bonus of any kind.

 

 

[Captain Craig]

47 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

 

The pain is going to shared.

 

Dark Fate faces losses of $120 million-plus for partners Skydance Media, Paramount Pictures and 20th Century Fox, which each put up 30 percent of the $185 million budget (Disney, which now owns the Fox film studio, will absorb the loss), sources tell The Hollywood Reporter. China's Tencent has a 10 percent stake.

 

This and Dark Phoenix are some tough losses by acquisition that Disney has had to absorb this year. Makes the Dumbo losses look like nothing. 

Edited November 5, 2019 by Captain Craig

[john2000]

47 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Given the 180 to 200 Million budget ,..which means a break even point of around 400 million, yeah, it's pretty bad.

Projected losses are around 100 Million dollars. I think that qualifies as bad.

And it might not even make 300 Million.

 

i dont even understand why the gave this much budget, better would be to not make the movie at all, if they couldnt cut the costs

Edited November 5, 2019 by john2000

[Laurent K]

48 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Given the 180 to 200 Million budget ,..which means a break even point of around 400 million, yeah, it's pretty bad.

Projected losses are around 100 Million dollars. I think that qualifies as bad.

And it might not even make 300 Million.

 

These budget numbers are too big to be true.

Real budgets are way lower IMO. 

[dudalb]

17 minutes ago, Captain Craig said:

This and Dark Phoenix are some tough losses by acquisition that Disney has had to absorb this year. Makes the Dumbo losses look like nothing. 

Losses on Dark Fate for Disney are minor;Fox  did not have that big a share of the film. But Disney has to eat every penny of the Dark Phoenix losses.

Not a good comparasion.

And Disney had no control of any kind over Dark Fate. It was an investor with no say in how the film was made.

[dudalb]

5 minutes ago, Laurent K said:

These budget numbers are too big to be true.

Real budgets are way lower IMO. 

Wrong,wrong,wrong, on both counts.

if you are going to post on a box office site you would be well advised to actually learn something about the way the film business works to avoid making a fool of yourself.

Edited November 5, 2019 by dudalb

[reddevil19]

4 minutes ago, Laurent K said:

These budget numbers are too big to be true.

Real budgets are way lower IMO. 

[Barnack]

Edit: double post, not sure how to delete message here.
 

Edited November 5, 2019 by Barnack
Double post

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, dudalb said:

But Disney has to eat every penny of the Dark Phoenix losses.

Not a good comparasion.

Production Companies

• Twentieth Century Fox (presents)
• Bad Hat Harry Productions
• Donners' Company
• Kinberg Genre
• Marvel Entertainment (in association with)
• TSG Entertainment (in association with)

 

7 minutes ago, Laurent K said:

These budget numbers are too big to be true.

 

James Cameron production are not known to be particularly on the cheap side, they sound quite possible to be true numbers.