DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS | 05.06.2022 | Disney | 4th Most Profitable Movie of 2022

[Madhuvan]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

This is 200 million for Thor 4? So you're saying like 180 million would be a disappointment?

180 million will be very disappointing. Atleast it needs to match Iron Man 3 adjusted opening weekend. 

 

 

[WittyUsername]

I don’t understand why you guys are placing such high predictions for every MCU film moving forward, while suggesting that anything less would be a disappointment. FFH made less money than IM3, but I don’t see people calling that a disappointment. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

180 million will be very disappointing. Atleast it needs to match Iron Man 3 adjusted opening weekend. 

 

 

Why? Thor is not as popular as IM was, at least domestically. RDJ is one of a kind.

[Saul Goodman]

Thor will have a pretty big opening weekend after his role in IW and Endgame. Not to forget how well loved Ragnarok was.

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, Menor said:

Why? Thor is not as popular as IM was, at least domestically. RDJ is one of a kind.

Iron Man was on fire in terms of popularity during the first third of the Infinity Saga. Then Cap got boosted up to the top tier of popularity as well with the TWS-AoU-CW arc in the middle third, and Thor finally entered tier 1 of popularity with Ragnarok+IW I would say. So I can kind of see where Jat is getting these huge numbers from, though I personally won’t go quite as far.    
 

Also IM3 was a truly insane WW performance, even reaching the top 5. Won’t expect any McU solo to ever match it, but matching unadjusted a decade later is not such a big ask.

[Valonqar]

Thor really impressed in IW and a lot of people loved fat Thor (who is off table in L&T). So I think that we'll see a big jump. Maybe not to 1.4B but 1.2B would be within realistic expectations. So I'm going with 1.2B for now.

 

Also, Bale casting really bumped interest in this. 

 

However, if they bring in another SH in an important role (CM for example since it's space), all bets are off. 

Edited April 25, 2020 by Valonqar

[Saul Goodman]

19 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Thor really impressed in IW and a lot of people loved fat Thor (who is off table in L&T). So I think that we'll see a big jump. Maybe not to 1.4B but 1.2B would be within realistic expectations. So I'm going with 1.2B for now.

 

Also, Bale casting really bumped interest in this. 

 

However, if they bring in another SH in an important role (CM for example since it's space), all bets are off. 

Well the Guardians of the Galaxy might be in it.

[Valonqar]

Then 1.2B is the floor. Thor +GOTG+Bale. Money prints itself.

[XXR vs XXR]

2 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

I don’t understand why you guys are placing such high predictions for every MCU film moving forward, while suggesting that anything less would be a disappointment. FFH made less money than IM3, but I don’t see people calling that a disappointment. 

 

Agreed. Saying $200 million is a "disappointment" bar is someone not living in the real world. 

Can Thor 4 do it? Sure. I don't think it's likely though. 

[CloneWars]

No way to figure out what DS2 does until we start seeing what other movies do in a post Covid world.

[YM!]

Considering how stacked it is for CBMs for 2022, and the likely ramifications with Corona we might not see another $1B film until 2022 which Thor 4 seems to be a likely contender. I’d say even a slight increase is great.
 

Not all MCU movies have to do Avengers numbers every time, as asking for that only leads to disappointments. That said I expect $1B plus and $400M DOM for Thor 4. I think the floor for OW is likely around $140M

Edited April 26, 2020 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Not all MCU movies have to do Avengers numbers every time

Certainly not, but Avengers numbers is 2 billies.    
 

Phase 3 had 9 solo movies, in chronological order their WW ranks were:

12
96
55
49
60
9
138
21
23   

Covid aside, which will maybe/maybe not put a long lasting dent in global grosses, 7 of those 9 would be ~1B+ performances in 2022. 4/9 are ~1.2B+. Stuff like Shang-Chi, BW, Eternals, AM3, Blade, FF should be given room to do just mid-high hundred mil and have it be fine, sure. But for the big sequels of DS2, Thor4, SM3, BP2, CM2, and Gotg3 there’s a big difference between wanting avengers numbers and just wanting them to perform  in like, the 60th-80th percentile or so of recent solos. 

 

[JB33]

Really don't like that date for DS2.  We have to remember though, the over-arching MCU narrative is partly what dictates the release dates. We're not privy to why a certain movie is schedule when. There must be a good reason why Marvel/Disney is packing these movies so tightly together.

[ReptileDysfunction7]

For Thor 4 I could see anywhere from $1B-1.5B. If they have the GOTG in it, it will likely see a bump.

 

So for now I’ll say:

 

$155M OW

$410M DOM

$1.2B WW

[charlie Jatinder]

Whatever film will come on May weekend 2022 will have Eid holiday in East and Middle East. Good release date.

[Valonqar]

8 hours ago, JB33 said:

Really don't like that date for DS2.  We have to remember though, the over-arching MCU narrative is partly what dictates the release dates. We're not privy to why a certain movie is schedule when. There must be a good reason why Marvel/Disney is packing these movies so tightly together.

I think they are packing them so tightly in 2022 because they don't know what's gonna happen. It's very possible that some movies currently scheduled for 2022 will be delayed to 2023. 

[TMP]

Now that Keaton's Batman is coming back, can we expect a Tobey appearance here too?

[lorddemaxus]

8 hours ago, TMP said:

Now that Keaton's Batman is coming back, can we expect a Tobey appearance here too?

Kevin Feige doesn't really seem like the reactionary type. If Tobey is in this, I think Raimi would've already included him into the script before that news.

Edited June 23, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[Macleod]

3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Kevin Feige doesn't really seem like the reactionary type. If Tobey is in this, I think Raimi would've already included him into the script before that news.

J.K. Simmons has revealed that he has already filmed another appearance, and that more are possibly on the way (see my post in the Spider-Man sequel thread), so it only leads to more of these thoughts... It's obvious that Sony wants to do this eventually, it's just a matter of which film it happens in...

[WittyUsername]

The MCU is technically supposed to take place in the same multiverse as the various comic continuities, so I guess they could potentially do something cute with that.