Minions: The Rise of Gru | July 1, 2022 | Illumination

[JWR]

I say with a couple factors in mind:

 

1. Inside Out beat Minions at the domestic box office back in 2015, even amidst competition Jurassic World. So I can see a repeat of that here.

 

2. I think that the franchise's popularity peaked with the first Minions and Despicable Me 3. The underperformance of SLOP 2 gives me reason to believe that internet won't be as strong.

[misafeco]

Minions (2015) is one of the worst movies of the last decade. It's an insult to the intelligence of the viewers. I never wish for any movie to bomb/underperform, but I hate that it will probably make more WW than a number of great animations.

[Jonwo]

9 hours ago, JB33 said:

Trying to forget about TROS so bumping a random topic....

 

I'm quite surprised there's no teaser out for this yet. Doesn't Illumination usually get out teasers pretty far in advance?

It's probably with Spies in Disguise but perhaps Universal will attach it to Dolittle

[JWR]

The question I have is this: How much of a drop off from the first Minions this will have?

Edited December 22, 2019 by JWR

[KP1025]

3 hours ago, JWR said:

The question I have is this: How much of a drop off from the first Minions this will have?

 

Domestically, DM3 dropped from DM2's $368 million to $265 million. That's a drop of 28%, which if applied to Minions ($336 million DOM) would lead to $242 million for the sequel. 

 

Or if you want to consider them all related films, DM3 dropped 21% from Minions. Same drop applied to Minions 2 from DM3 would lead to $209 million DOM. 

[JWR]

1 hour ago, KP1025 said:

 

Domestically, DM3 dropped from DM2's $368 million to $265 million. That's a drop of 28%, which if applied to Minions ($336 million DOM) would lead to $242 million for the sequel. 

 

Or if you want to consider them all related films, DM3 dropped 21% from Minions. Same drop applied to Minions 2 from DM3 would lead to $209 million DOM. 

Both seem likely for Minions 2.

[John Marston]

surprised Universal hasn't started marketing. Wonder if it has to do with the low gross of The Secret Life of Pets 2. Maybe Illumination is worried that they are overplaying their hand with marketing. 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

It is going to drop... A LOT.

 

Probably a Ice Age 5 scenario, where both DOM and OS audiences rejected the product.

[JB33]

2 hours ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

It is going to drop... A LOT.

 

Probably a Ice Age 5 scenario, where both DOM and OS audiences rejected the product.

Lack of marketing is THE most telling sign. Radio silence from Illumination regarding this movie. I'd almost expect it to move at this point.

[JWR]

3 hours ago, John Marston said:

surprised Universal hasn't started marketing. Wonder if it has to do with the low gross of The Secret Life of Pets 2. Maybe Illumination is worried that they are overplaying their hand with marketing. 

I'm betting that's exactly why they're being a bit more gun shy this time around.

[JWR]

57 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Lack of marketing is THE most telling sign. Radio silence from Illumination regarding this movie. I'd almost expect it to move at this point.

But where would it move to?

[WayneBorg]

On 12/24/2019 at 12:11 PM, JB33 said:

Lack of marketing is THE most telling sign. Radio silence from Illumination regarding this movie. I'd almost expect it to move at this point.

They released a teaser in cinemas with TROS. The compact campaign for Minions 2 and FF9 was apparently already planned by Universal before SLOP 2:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/business/media/hollywood-blockbuster-marketing.html

Edited December 30, 2019 by WayneBorg

[WayneBorg]

Given what Universal had announced for Bond (trailer 4 months before the film) and FF9 (trailer coming also 4 months only) and what Pixar did with TS4 (trailer only 4 months before), I don't think we will get an M2 trailer before March 2020.

Edited December 30, 2019 by WayneBorg

[JWR]

21 minutes ago, WayneBorg said:

Given what Universal had announced for Bond (trailer 4 months before the film) and FF9 (trailer coming also 4 months only) and what Pixar did with TS4 (trailer only 4 months before), I don't think we will get an M2 trailer before March 2020.

March 2020 is where we'll also likely get a full trailer for Soul.

[a2k]

50-60*2.80-2.85 = 140-170 for M2 imo

[WayneBorg]

24 minutes ago, a2k said:

50-60*2.80-2.85 = 140-170 for M2 imo

Weren't you projecting 200-220 for M2 dom ? 

What do you think it will get world wide ?

[KP1025]

23 minutes ago, a2k said:

50-60*2.80-2.85 = 140-170 for M2 imo

 

I always felt the franchise was going to hit an Ice Age style collapse eventually. The entire Minions slapstick gets old really fast. 

[Royce]

Minons = Shrek 2

DM3 = Shrek 3

Rise of Gru = Shrek 4

[a2k]

13 minutes ago, WayneBorg said:

Weren't you projecting 200-220 for M2 dom ? 

What do you think it will get world wide ?

felt i went 'optimistic' for M2 in the Soul over M2 club (as if to prove that even under-projecting Soul and over-projecting M2, Soul should win)

don't have a confident guess for os but say 40-45% down for 450-500 (gulp, still huge).

[Madhuvan]

Just wait and watch, this movie will cross 1B WW. 

You all are way underestimating the popularity of Minions. 

325m+ Dom 

750m+ OS