Weekend Estimates: Lego Batman 55.6M, 50 Shades 46.7M, John Wick 2 30M

[goldenstate5]

I saw LB and it was fantastic and hilarious. The adults seemed to have the best time. That said, I can see this skyrocketing on Saturday and ending up closer to $60 mil. That's still a very solid number and will probably be able to jump to $200 mil. I don't see why that's any reason at all to panic but BOT be BOT I guess

[UrosepsisFace]

I'm loving the hate for 50 Shades Darker. I was sitting in a sold-out theater with the wife, listening to some guy complain to a few women about having to be dragged to a movie rated in the single digit% by  RT. He complained that every review said it was corny, pointless, and had terrible dialogue. Whole theater seemed to either groan or laugh at ever terrible line or outrageous situation. In the end, though, it was a sold-out theater and the next two showings were also sold out, possibly filled with peopled dragged their by their friends.

 

My showing for Lego Batman was also sold out, and the jokes hit. Whole theater laughed throughout. Everybody liked the first movie. Everybody seems to like this movie. It has Batman and Lego. Why the under performance? Look, the first Lego Movie opened against The Monuments Men and Vampire Academy. Look, Zootopia opened against London Has Fallen and Whiskey Tango Foxtrot. You can make the argument that Lego Batman is facing competition (both possibly passing 100m in the end) that goes after very different audiences, but is it so hard to imagine a Batman fan choosing to watch John Wick 2 instead or a couple choosing to hire a baby sitter and watching 50 Shades Darker instead on Valentines Weekend? If that doesn't explain it, then...cartoon aimed at kids is still too dark and doesn't have babies or talking animals that are meant to be cute...

 

Finally, go John Wick 2! In a world that complains about the violence in Walking Dead, I am very much pleased such a film exists...

[grey ghost]

17 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

That reaction to the LB number is classic BOT. Setting expectations too high before being disappointed. I can't wait for the meltdowns when BatB makes 130m OW. I wonder where @MovieMan89 is btw. I remember him saying last year that there's no way that LEGO Batman would open below 100m. Talk about overly high expectations. We'll never learn.

 

This place would be boring if every prediction was safe.

 

And it feels good when a movie meets high box office expectations which happens all the time.

[Captain H]

Whoops at Lego Batman. I guess I'm one of those that overestimated it. Then again, the trailers, as good as those are, seemed to be gearing toward the cbm fans more than the family audience.

Edited February 11, 2017 by Captain H

[Jonwo]

23 minutes ago, goldenstate5 said:

I saw LB and it was fantastic and hilarious. The adults seemed to have the best time. That said, I can see this skyrocketing on Saturday and ending up closer to $60 mil. That's still a very solid number and will probably be able to jump to $200 mil. I don't see why that's any reason at all to panic but BOT be BOT I guess

 

I imagine it'll have a very good drop next week, $55-60m OW for an animated film is still great, other studios would be satisfied with that number 

[That One Girl]

Honestly, it's really hard to not be disappointed with the number for LB.  It was a film that seemed poised to break out.  I think one of the early warning signs for me should've been that when the trailer played, it rarely got more than a chuckle.

[WrathOfHan]

How my theater looks today so far:

 

Batman:

 

9:30: 24/78

10:00 Sensory Friendly: 17/61

11:00: 92/124

12:15 3D: 8/78

1:45 3D: 14/124

3:00: 28/78

4:30: 51/124

5:40 3D: 8/78

7:15 3D: 5/124

8:15: 16/78

9:15: 6/78

10:45 3D: 0/78

Total: 269/1,103

 

Fifty Shades:

 

10:15: 29/113

11:45: 14/78

1:15: 38/113

2:45: 11/78

5:45: 33/78

7:15: 77/113

8:45: 45/78

9:45: 10/124

10:15: 12/113

Total: 269/888

 

John Wick:

 

10:45: 47/78

1:45: 6/78

4:45: 5/78

7:45: 6/78

10:40: 2/78

Total: 66/390

[MCKillswitch123]

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Honestly, it's really hard to not be disappointed with the number for LB.  It was a film that seemed poised to break out.  I think one of the early warning signs for me should've been that when the trailer played, it rarely got more than a chuckle.

 

I agree. I think all the evidence of a breakout was present. I'll give it the benefit of the doubt, though, and guess that competition is what really took the best of out what this movie had to offer. Fifty Shades and John Wick are opening to very different audiences and they'll have at least 60M combined in their OW's. It is, sadly true, that the original Lego Movie and Zootopia had much weaker competition. Fact remains that Lego Bats should be commended for having an OW close, possibly (wishfully) similar w/the combined openings of Shades and Wick.

[Valonqar]

Anyone who doesn't think that John Wick 2 is a big success is crazy. the movie expanded its audience. Got even better reviews than the first one. That's what sequels should do. Keanu's back.

 

Lego Batman's real test is today. Kids movies tend to do insane business on Saturday so all bets are off. That said, maybe recent Batman movies devalued Batman somewhat?

 

HF and Split are monsters. HF is gonna end up above LLL, that isn't doing too shabby itself. It's widening the gap. 

 

 

Edited February 11, 2017 by Valonqar

[bladels]

John Wick is gonna be cut ~ 20 minutes in Vietnam, UGGHH. What is the point of rating it C18 (R) if you're going to censor it anyway?

Hope Logan won't share the same fate

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Anyone who doesn't think that John Wick 2 is a big success is crazy. the movie expanded its audience. Got even better reviews than the first one. That's what sequels should do. Keanu's back.

 

Lego Batman's real test is today. Kids movies tend to do insane business on Saturday so all bets are off. That said, maybe recent Batman movies devalued Batman somewhat?

 

HF and Split are monsters. HF is gonna end up above LLL, that isn't doing too shabby itself. It's widening the gap. 

 

 

 

To early to call HF as the winner.

 

We don't know the size of LLL's Oscar bump yet.

[mahnamahna]

Unlike last February, at least it won't be one blockbuster carrying the entire month 

 

LEGO Batman - 55/200

50 Shades Darker - 45/105

John Wick - 30/95

Get Out - 25/80

Fist Fight - 25/75 

The Great Wall - 20/55

 

 

[grey ghost]

1 minute ago, bladels said:

John Wick is gonna be cut ~ 20 minutes in Vietnam, UGGHH. What is the point of rating it C18 (R) if you're going to censor it anyway?

Hope Logan won't share the same fate

 

Wouldn't you prefer just to wait for DVD to get the original versions?

[mahnamahna]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Anyone who doesn't think that John Wick 2 is a big success is crazy. the movie expanded its audience. Got even better reviews than the first one. That's what sequels should do. Keanu's back.

 

Lego Batman's real test is today. Kids movies tend to do insane business on Saturday so all bets are off. That said, maybe recent Batman movies devalued Batman somewhat?

 

HF and Split are monsters. HF is gonna end up above LLL, that isn't doing too shabby itself. It's widening the gap. 

 

 

If it wasn't for the two horror films over the next two weeks, Split would have a chance at $150 million.

 

Hidden Figures is quietly on its way to $160-165 million DOM. LLL will do $135-140 million DOM, so it's still a solid hit. 

[mahnamahna]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

To early to call HF as the winner.

 

We don't know the size of LLL's Oscar bump yet.

I doubt it'll be large enough.

 

HF

$8 million/$9.5 million ($147 million)

$5.5 million ($154 million)

$4 million ($161 million)

$2.5 million ($165 million)

$1.5 million ($167 million)

$172 million DOM

 

LLL

$5 million/$5.75 million ($134 million)

$3.5 million ($138 million)

$3 million ($144 million)

$2 million ($147 million)

$154 million DOM 

 

[PPZVGOS]

There surely must be interference between 3 relatively major openers on a single weekend. 

[chasmmi]

The decision for John Wick as a Franchise seems to be, if you do a 3rd one, do you stick with essentially the same budgets and formula of the first two and enjoy that $100-$150M WW total you'll likely get back if you maintain the quality. 

 

Or do you try to go bigger, perhaps bring in a 'big name' and attempt to break $120M dom and get close to $300M WW. It's a high risk, high reward strategy as if you pull it off, this could end up like a Mini Mission Impossible of Fast and Furious type series. But if the bigger budget and style ends up killing what people seem to be enjoying from the first couple. You risk becoming a bomb and losing all the money that the first two made.

[bladels]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Wouldn't you prefer just to wait for DVD to get the original versions?

JW I can wait but Logan I can't. Hope they won't screw that up too

[FantasticBeasts]

Excuse me but what competition are we talking about for LB?

Fifty shades or JW? Their audiences have nothing in common. There has been some time without a new big animation so everything was set for a very good opening.

 

[DeeCee]

Simply put the theme for this weekend is fuck you eOne.