Weekend Estimates: Lego Batman 55.6M, 50 Shades 46.7M, John Wick 2 30M

[franfar]

Black Panther could fall between 100-120m. I think 100m is the floor. A 100-115m OW for Black Panther is the most likely, now that I think about it. It could still leg it out to 360m with great reviews

[robertman2]

I say we take the IMDB refugees, and we push them somewhere else!

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

I think a good comparison would be Kingsman

 

Sat. 47.7% increase - 16.2M

 

Sun. 32.7% decrease - 10.9M

 

38.1M WEEKEND INCOMING FOLKS.

 

If only that would be an option

[narniadis]

Again, with Lego Batman - its doing great but Animation / Family Film fatigue must set in at some point, particularly with BATB coming in just a few weeks.

[WrathOfHan]

Rogue One is looking at a weekend around 1.5M, which will put the total at 527.1M. It'll need 7.7M more to beat TDK. At similar TCs, this is what other blockbusters had left in the tank:

 

TFA: 7.8M after a 12th weekend with 1,021 theaters

AOU: 6.5M after a 9th weekend with 1,097 theaters

IM3: 5.8M after an 8th weekend with 924 theaters

GOTG: 5.4M after a 12th weekend with 730 theaters

Deadpool: 3M after a 10th weekend with 791 theaters

 

[That One Girl]

Alright, I actually found a pretty good comparison for JWC2: Safe House.  Opened on the same exact date as JWC2 in 2012 and it's also an R rated action thriller.

 

Sat. 19.3% increase - 13.1M

 

Sun. 37.1% decrease - 8.24M

 

That would get the weekend total to about 32M.

[narniadis]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Rogue One is looking at a weekend around 1.5M, which will put the total at 527.1M. It'll need 7.7M more to beat TDK. At similar TCs, this is what other blockbusters had left in the tank:

 

TFA: 7.8M after a 12th weekend with 1,021 theaters

AOU: 6.5M after a 9th weekend with 1,097 theaters

IM3: 5.8M after an 8th weekend with 924 theaters

GOTG: 5.4M after a 12th weekend with 730 theaters

Deadpool: 3M after a 10th weekend with 791 theaters

 

 

Going to be a lot closer than a lot of folks (both over and under) thought.

 

I still can't get over the fact that freaking SW spin off did 525m (ROTS adjusted.)

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, franfar said:

Black Panther could fall between 100-120m. I think 100m is the floor. A 100-115m OW for Black Panther is the most likely, now that I think about it. It could still leg it out to 360m with great reviews

$90M-$145M OW to $275M-$400M total. $90M/$275M being the floor and $145M/$400M being the hard/unlikely to reach ceiling. 

[DAJK]

Right now, I'd say that anything bigger than 100/250 is a HUGE success for Black Panther!

[YM!]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

Right now, I'd say that anything bigger than 100/250 is a HUGE success for Black Panther!

Agreed.

[franfar]

4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

Going to be a lot closer than a lot of folks (both over and under) thought.

 

I still can't get over the fact that freaking SW spin off did 525m (ROTS adjusted.)

It's Star Wars man.

 

[That One Girl]

If Lego Batman follows Journey 2:

 

Sat. 92.8% increase - 28.9M

 

Sun. 35.1% decrease - 18.8M

 

That would get it a 62.7M OW.

[narniadis]

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Alright, I actually found a pretty good comparison for JWC2: Safe House.  Opened on the same exact date as JWC2 in 2012 and it's also an R rated action thriller.

 

Sat. 19.3% increase - 13.1M

 

Sun. 37.1% decrease - 8.24M

 

That would get the weekend total to about 32M.

 

Take out the previews and your 20% Saturday increase is more like 10.5 which of course leads to a smaller Sunday and then a total under 30m.

 

I frankly don't see how 30m is going to happen, needed at least 12m on Friday to make it a lock. And this is of course providing it doesn't collapse today from fanboy rush....

[YM!]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

If Lego Batman follows Journey 2:

 

Sat. 92.8% increase - 28.9M

 

Sun. 35.1% decrease - 18.8M

 

That would get it a 62.7M OW.

Possible but I'm thinking more of the range of $56M-$60M OW.

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

If Lego Batman follows Journey 2:

 

Sat. 92.8% increase - 28.9M

 

Sun. 35.1% decrease - 18.8M

 

That would get it a 62.7M OW.

 

Again, take out previews before factoring the increase (taking the true Friday number.) Feb 2012 was pre-TDKR and midnight numbers were not the norm for all flicks let alone previews. It has changed the landscape significantly over the years.

[That One Girl]

If Fifty Shades follows The Vow (which is extremely unlikely, but these are what if scenarios):

 

Sat. 9% increase - 23.4M

 

Sun. 44.6% decrease - 13M

 

57.9M seems to be the ceiling if it somehow holds on extremely well on Saturday.  Again though, just what if scenarios.

[FantasticBeasts]

No one is trying to make LB's number seem disappointing. It is disappointing.

It's not about the predictions people were making here. Tracking (which is always conservative) had that 5-10m higher.

It is obviously an underperformance. Nothing worrying but still disappointing.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

Again, take out previews before factoring the increase (taking the true Friday number.) Feb 2012 was pre-TDKR and midnight numbers were not the norm for all flicks let alone previews. It has changed the landscape significantly over the years.

 

Good point, but what I like to do for these kinds of movies is compare films that opened on the exact same dates as them, rather than weekends.  It's somewhat flawed of course, but so is every other method of prediction.

Edited February 11, 2017 by That One Guy

[CaptainJackSparrow]

I thought Lego Batman was good, but not great. I'm hopefully going to see John Wick 2 tomorrow. 

Anyway, Black Panther is my most anticipated Marvel Studios film.

Lastly, Great Wall will benefit from nothing truly breaking out this weekend.

[narniadis]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Good point, but what I like to do for these kinds of movies is compare films that opened on the exact same dates as them, rather weekends.  It's somewhat flawed of course, but so is every other method of prediction.

 

Oh yes, same calendar configuration is great - but only in a linear unchanged environment. When you have such a massive shift in how movies work (thursday previews being the norm now instead of rare/unheard of) it makes it much more difficult. Speculation is great but it can also cause unrealistic data points to be considered (such as using The Vow with FSD). Then again, what do we know lol BO changes every year.

 

I am more curious to see how Tuesday plays out on this calendar configuration this year - since Discount Tuesdays are much larger than they were in 2012 (and of course every year before that going back to 2008 when we started to see them pop up.)