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Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018

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24 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

If Han Solo stays in May, it won't have any legs regardless of how word-of-mouth might be because of the ridiculous competition. Hopefully it moves to December and Deadpool 2 could then move to Memorial Day weekend and maybe Ocean's Eight or Bumblebee to June 1. Speaking of Bumblebee, why are people predicting so much for a Transformers spin-off? Depending on how TF5 does, I could see Bumblebee missing 100m DOM because its legs are going to get slaughtered.

Bumblebee will do anywhere from $85M-$100M domestic but make bank OS.

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48 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Bumblebee will do anywhere from $85M-$100M domestic but make bank OS.

True, but even then I don't see it performing at the level of a regular Transformers film because of the competition and because it's a spin-off. Something like 500-600m worldwide seems reasonable (which will be more than enough for Paramount to continue with their Transformers Cinematic Universe).

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The 2018 Superhero slate is crazy, but I'm beginning to think it might just work thanks to them being so diversely different from each other.

 

Feb: Black Panther $285-$330m

April: New Mutants $125-$150m (I am guessing it's budget will be significantly low for SH film) 

May: Avengers: Infinity War $500-$600m

June: Deadpool $300-$350m, The Incredibles 2 $400-$450m

July: Ant-Man and the Wasp $165-$215m

October: Venom $130-$170m

November: Dark Phoenix $140-$175m 

December: Aquaman $200-$250m

 

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Do you guys think Disney has a shot at breaking their 2016 record?

 

I mean, they had a pretty batshit insane year there... for fuck's sake, Zootopia, which made 340M+, was, domestically, their FIFTH highest grossing movie. Their fucking FIFTH highest grossing movie. And, well, any slate would have a hard time beating the Rogue One + Finding Dory duo alone, but the added power of Civil War + Jungle Book + Zootopia + Dr. Strange + Moana + God knows what else really raised their year to unprecedented highs.

 

But, while it is hard to beat 2016, I think they can manage 4 300M+ makers between Han Solo, Infinity War, Incredibles 2 and Mulan (two of those are definitely gonna challenge 400M, maybe 3 if Incredibles breaks out), many 200M+ makers (Black Panther, Wreck It Ralph 2, Dumbo, Mary Poppins Returns) and some other potential small scale hits (A Wrinkle In Time, Magic Camp, Jungle Cruise) in 2018. It might be surprisngly close.

 

Spoiler

That being said, it won't matter for much long cause 2019 is beating them both:

 

  • Star Wars: Episode IX
  • Avengers 4
  • Toy Story 4
  • Frozen 2
  • The Lion King
  • Captain Marvel

 

:ph34r:

 

Edited by MCKillswitch123
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The Disney 2019 slate is ridiculous. They have 5 potential 1bn+ grossers in there. They came close in 2016 with Jungle Book just missing out but I'm confident they will achieve that in 2019 with SW IX, TA4, LK,TS4 and Frozen. 

 

The only movies that will come close to challenging the disney hegemony in 2019 will be F9, TF6 and Spidey sequel. 

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36 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

TS4 will not make 1b. It's gross in 2010 was at height of 3D and it did great only in certain markets like UK, AU, JP, HK, MX and BR

Depends on domestic if it does TS3 numbers adjusted ($460M), it could get there but that's another extreme.

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8 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Depends on domestic if it does TS3 numbers adjusted ($460M), it could get there but that's another extreme.

 

I think it needs desperately good wom to achieve that. And TS3 only made 400M+ w/that crazy wom, still making less than 2004's Shrek 2 in the process. I think TS4 can make 400, but not cross it by a large distance. And it certainly won't come close to Dory. As a matter of fact, I question it being the highest grossing animated film of the year over Frozen 2 anyway.

 

But ultimately, TS4 doing 300, 400... just another wheel on Disney's 2019 slate. Which, curiously enough, is filled out w/the flagship films from every single brand they own - Lucasfilm: Star Wars episodic entry; Marvel: Avengers; Pixar: Toy Story; WDAS: Frozen; Live action remakes: The Lion King. Two of these can cross 600M DOM (SW IX and TLK). Two others have a 500M shot (Avengers - assuming good wom from Infinity War and no unbearable levels of frontloadedness - and Frozen). And pretty much all of them are near givens for 400M DOM and O/U 1B WW. That's RI-DI-CU-LOUS.

 

And their 2020 isn't looking too shabby either 3 years away (Indiana Jones 5, GOTG V3, Gigantic, the Pixar originals).

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4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

I think it needs desperately good wom to achieve that. And TS3 only made 400M+ w/that crazy wom, still making less than 2004's Shrek 2 in the process. I think TS4 can make 400, but not cross it by a large distance. And it certainly won't come close to Dory. As a matter of fact, I question it being the highest grossing animated film of the year over Frozen 2 anyway.

 

But ultimately, TS4 doing 300, 400... just another wheel on Disney's 2019 slate. Which, curiously enough, is filled out w/the flagship films from every single brand they own - Lucasfilm: Star Wars episodic entry; Marvel: Avengers; Pixar: Toy Story; WDAS: Frozen; Live action remakes: The Lion King. Two of these can cross 600M DOM (SW IX and TLK). Two others have a 500M shot (Avengers - assuming good wom from Infinity War and no unbearable levels of frontloadedness - and Frozen). And pretty much all of them are near givens for 400M DOM and O/U 1B WW. That's RI-DI-CU-LOUS.

 

And their 2020 isn't looking too shabby either 3 years away (Indiana Jones 5, GOTG V3, Gigantic, the Pixar originals).

I think Frozen 2 is definitely decreasing from the first.

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1 minute ago, YourMother said:

I think Frozen 2 is definitely decreasing from the first.

 

I totally disagree. Frozen is a pop culture phenomenom, the likes of which hasn't been seen since maybe The Lion King, when it comes to animation. It's got an even bigger ceiling than Finding Dory did. Sure, it has its detractors (of which I think you belong, which is totally fine by me), but the vast majority of the audience not only loves the original, but craves EVERYTHING Frozen. That Frozen Fever short was maddeningly successful and it was just a stupid short playing in front of Cinderella. There's still Frozen everything, everywhere - Frozen products, Frozen cosplays, Frozen this, Frozen that... Let It Go is STILL being hummed every now and then.

 

I'm telling you: people see Frozen 2 playing in theaters, it's gonna be Shrek 2 on steroids. It's a movie that hit the zeitgeist, and people just can't stop talking about it. Plus, holiday legs on top of what should be an already huge opening weekend. I'm thinking 400M, if anything, is the floor. And even if Star Wars IX opens in December, it'll co-exist w/Frozen just fine, cause 1) double features, and 2) spillout factor.

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Disney in 2018 is actually not that strong by their high standards. Apart from the big three of Han Solo, Avengers and Incredibles, they will have a solid enough year. I am starting to doubt Aladdin,  Dumbo or even Mulan will make a 2018 date. 

 

Disney in 2019 is on another level of strong. They could have 5 films that make a billion, but then again, potential billion dollar films like Guardians 2 and Pirates did not get close this year, so you never know.  

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2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

TS4 will not make 1b. It's gross in 2010 was at height of 3D and it did great only in certain markets like UK, AU, JP, HK, MX and BR

 

And like Avatar, TS3 was also released during a period of extremely favorable exchange rates. Same admissions as TS3 and TS4 still would not cross $1 billion today. True there's inflation in developing markets to account for, but it's not enough to overcome that and the lower 3D share. Also worth mentioning Pixar is a weakening brand in Japan, TS3's largest OS market. Finding Dory dropped almost 40% from Finding Nemo in yen despite being a well-received/anticipated sequel to the beloved original. Accounting for the difference in exchange rates, TS4 could drop in USD 55% from TS3 in Japan alone.

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2 hours ago, Hades said:

Disney in 2018 is actually not that strong by their high standards. Apart from the big three of Han Solo, Avengers and Incredibles, they will have a solid enough year. I am starting to doubt Aladdin,  Dumbo or even Mulan will make a 2018 date. 

 

Disney in 2019 is on another level of strong. They could have 5 films that make a billion, but then again, potential billion dollar films like Guardians 2 and Pirates did not get close this year, so you never know.  

 

Well, I don't think a 2018 release for Aladdin was ever in question. 2018 shoot is a lucky draw, frankly. Dumbo seems likely though, and I think they can film it within the next few months. Ditto for Mulan. But yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if either got pushed forward.

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5 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Do you guys think Disney has a shot at breaking their 2016 record?

 

I mean, they had a pretty batshit insane year there... for fuck's sake, Zootopia, which made 340M+, was, domestically, their FIFTH highest grossing movie. Their fucking FIFTH highest grossing movie. And, well, any slate would have a hard time beating the Rogue One + Finding Dory duo alone, but the added power of Civil War + Jungle Book + Zootopia + Dr. Strange + Moana + God knows what else really raised their year to unprecedented highs.

 

But, while it is hard to beat 2016, I think they can manage 4 300M+ makers between Han Solo, Infinity War, Incredibles 2 and Mulan (two of those are definitely gonna challenge 400M, maybe 3 if Incredibles breaks out), many 200M+ makers (Black Panther, Wreck It Ralph 2, Dumbo, Mary Poppins Returns) and some other potential small scale hits (A Wrinkle In Time, Magic Camp, Jungle Cruise) in 2018. It might be surprisngly close.

 

  Hide contents

That being said, it won't matter for much long cause 2019 is beating them both:

 

  • Star Wars: Episode IX
  • Avengers 4
  • Toy Story 4
  • Frozen 2
  • The Lion King
  • Captain Marvel

 

:ph34r:

 

 

Remember we would be going of the gross at came in the year 2018 so a good portion of TLJ gross will be in 2018, so with my predictions (which are probably higher then some people think) it will be really close and I could definitely see it happening, that being said 2019 will crush every record Disney or any other studio has ever had, Disney also has an untitled fairytale movie for 2018 scheduled, so if it's Dumbo, Cruella or Alladin, then I would say it definitely will ross it then. 

 

Avengers: Infinity War $540,000,000

Han Solo $485,000,000

The Incredibles 2 $430,000,000

Black Panther $330,000,000

Mulan $250m (in 2018)

The Last Jedi $250,000,000 (In 2018)

Wreck it Ralph 2 $200,000,000 (In 2018)

Ant-Man and the Wasp $175,000,000

A Wrinkle in Time $175,000,000

Mary Poppins Returns $110,000,000 (in 2018)

Magic Camp $60,000,000

 

Total $3,005,000,000

 

Edited by Kalo
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1 hour ago, YourMother said:

Phoenix vs Mulan should be an interesting battle.

 

I wont be surprised if one of them moves to Memorial Day 2019 if Episode IX moves to Christmas 2019

Edited by Jonwo
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