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YourMother the Edgelord

Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018

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2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm actually thinking The Incredibles 2 will play like a more frontloaded Finding Dory (worth mentioning that their predecessors in 2003/2004 both opened with $70M but the latter film made nearly $80M less in total than what the former did). $130M/$375M sounds about right.

I can see that too but 2018 both before and in the summer looks weak for animation. If it’s good I can see a breakout.

Edited by YourMother

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16 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Grinch is more likely double Ralph 2 than get beaten by it.

Maybe so, but my ceiling for Ralph 2 is a little higher than my floor for Grinch, so won't call it impossible. 

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It's tough cause I see Avengers and Jurassic World both doing 480-ish. Kinda feels like a coin toss for #1. 

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Just now, YourMother said:

Think it’s safe to say if Solo stays in Summer it’ll go sub $400M.

I feel like it's bound to either way because everyone's dubious of it being any good (given its production history).

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Just now, YourMother said:

Think it’s safe to say if Solo stays in Summer it’ll go sub $400M.

I'll go even further and say sub 300 could happen in that release slot if reception is mediocre, which is entirely possible given the production it's had. 

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2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'll go even further and say sub 300 could happen in that release slot if reception is mediocre, which is entirely possible given the production it's had. 

I don’t know why Disney sticks to that Memorial Day spot. It doesn’t work for them.

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1 minute ago, YourMother said:

I don’t know why Disney sticks to that Memorial Day spot. It doesn’t work for them.

It really makes no sense when the August-September stretch is practically begging for a high profile release, and the May-July stretch is so insanely crowded. 

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I doubt Solo goes under 300 or even 400. Only the internet crowd/fanboys know about the troubled production and they don’t make up nearly as much as the box office percentage that you guys think they do. The reason Star Wars makes so much money domestically is because they’re able the get the people that only go to the movies 3/4 times a year. 

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4 minutes ago, famekillss said:

I doubt Solo goes under 300 or even 400. Only the internet crowd/fanboys know about the troubled production and they don’t make up nearly as much as the box office percentage that you guys think they do. The reason Star Wars makes so much money domestically is because they’re able the get the people that only go to the movies 3/4 times a year. 

Knowing about the troubled production has nothing to do with it, I'm just saying it's an indicator we could get a less than stellar final product. Will they get those same people when they just saw TLJ 3-5 months ago? Hell, some of the audience who want to see TLJ may just be getting around to it in value theaters when Solo comes out. I can't see anyway it hits 400 staying where it's at. It is the most susceptible to being cannibalized out of the 5 huge May/June releases. 

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Ready Player One is one that I have more conservative predictions, I enjoyed the first trailer but I don't know if it can do $100m OW even with the power of Spielberg, the source material and WB's fantastic marketing. I think if it does $75m OW which is on par with FB then I think WB would be very pleased. 

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8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Knowing about the troubled production has nothing to do with it, I'm just saying it's an indicator we could get a less than stellar final product. Will they get those same people when they just saw TLJ 3-5 months ago? Hell, some of the audience who want to see TLJ may just be getting around to it in value theaters when Solo comes out. I can't see anyway it hits 400 staying where it's at. It is the most susceptible to being cannibalized out of the 5 huge May/June releases. 

After TFA and RO’s box office performance I’m very hesitant to doubt Star Wars’ box office power especially domestically. I agree that the release date isn’t the great, August would be better, but I doubt Disney would put SW anywhere but a “prestigious“ date. Even with the memorial day release date I think it’s going to do over 400. 

 

Also Star Wars has a crazy fan base. I think even if Solo is shit they’ll still see it  multiple times. Just look at the  prequel trilogy 

Edited by famekillss

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9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Knowing about the troubled production has nothing to do with it, I'm just saying it's an indicator we could get a less than stellar final product. Will they get those same people when they just saw TLJ 3-5 months ago? Hell, some of the audience who want to see TLJ may just be getting around to it in value theaters when Solo comes out. I can't see anyway it hits 400 staying where it's at. It is the most susceptible to being cannibalized out of the 5 huge May/June releases. 

 

If they waited until discount theaters for TLJ, they'll wait for discount theaters for Solo.

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4 minutes ago, famekillss said:

After TFA and RO’s box office performance I’m very hesitant to doubt Star Wars’ box office power especially domestically. I agree that the release date isn’t the great, August would be better, but I doubt Disney would put SW anywhere but a “prestigious“ date. Even with the memorial day release date I think it’s going to do over 400. 

 

Also Star Wars has a crazy fan base. I think even if Solo is shit they’ll still see it  multiple times. Just look at the  prequel trilogy 

Lots of unusual things with Solo though in terms of an SW release. First time an SW film is being released amidst tons of major competition. The only SW film to have notable competition at all really was AotC, which dealt with Spider-man releasing and overshadowing it only a couple weeks prior. AotC is also the least attended SW film, which is probably not entirely unrelated to the fact that it actually had a huge competitor to deal with. Solo has 4. Solo is the first SW film that has to worry about franchise fatigue actually being a thing, coming off the back of 3 SW films in two and a half years. Solo is the first SW film that won't have the long marketing campaign to really build hype like the franchise usually enjoys, marketing might not even start at all until 2018. Solo is the first SW film where the Force and all the elements that go along with it (i.e. Jedis and Sith and lightsabers) will (likely) be absent. Meaning it could really come off as just any generic action blockbuster with the SW name attached. Finally, Solo has had the most troubled production of any of the films, even switching directors completely a good ways in. Tons of signs point to it being the least successful SW film by a wide margin. Especially staying in that release slot.

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36 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I think if it does $75m OW which is on par with FB then I think WB would be very pleased. 

Would certainly be very pleased, that is a big 20m above The Martian. Is the book that more popular than the Martian ?

 

Adjusted Sci-fi from a book opening weekend top 15:

 

1 3 The Hunger Games LGF $454,208,900 4,137 $171,987,900 4,137 3/23/12
2 2 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire LGF $456,453,800 4,163 $169,054,300 4,163 11/22/13
3 4 The Lost World: Jurassic Park Uni. $445,695,900 3,565 $140,336,800 3,281 5/23/97
4 5 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 LGF $363,691,200 4,151 $131,150,100 4,151 11/21/14
5 8 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 LGF $289,346,300 4,175 $105,380,100 4,175 11/20/15
6 1 Jurassic Park Uni. $820,863,000 2,566 $101,437,100 2,404 6/11/93
7 6 I Am Legend WB $327,945,200 3,648 $100,217,600 3,606 12/14/07
8 7 War of the Worlds Par. $326,384,300 3,910 $90,384,900 3,908 6/29/05
9 10 I, Robot Fox $208,224,300 3,494 $75,034,800 3,420 7/16/04
10 14 Divergent LG/S $165,266,700 3,936 $61,262,200 3,936 3/21/14
11 15 The Divergent Series: Insurgent LG/S $139,105,400 3,875 $57,477,200 3,875 3/20/15
12 9 The Martian Fox $234,517,100 3,854 $55,744,300 3,831 10/2/15
13 13 Congo Par. $166,328,100 2,676 $50,588,000 2,649 6/9/95
14 17 Starship Troopers Sony $106,643,200 2,971 $42,916,100 2,971 11/7/97
15 11 Contact WB $196,343,900 2,314 $40,048,600 1,923 7/11/97

 

The only one to do 75m adjusted or more outside the HG movies were Jurassic Park, Cruise/Spielberg combo, and peak biggest movie star in the world around that time Will Smith 2 time.

 

Good news here is that Spielberg appear on that short 3 list times making it possible obviously. But it is still a very rare level to achieve outside solid franchise, unadjusted live action movies that reached 75m OW without a solid franchise are:

 

Avatar: 77m (would have done more without a snow storm)

I am Legend: 77.2m

Passion of the Christ: 83m

 

And except for Avatar the other 2 also had some form of franchise awareness (obviously for Jesus, but also I am Legend).

 

The trailers views on youtube:

http://www.boxofficereport.com/trailerviews/trailerviews.html

 

At 8.332M is not much higher than Annihilation in february or the next Maze Runner (8.5m)  or Alpha that also has a march 2018 release (7.28m) and is reception (at least the vocal one) was not great.

 

It would need great reviews and at least one great trailer before release to have any shot to a giant 75m OW, Speilbergh ultra wide release in the 2000 had in average a 3.9 multiplier. The Martian 55m type of opening would be great imo for that movie, 75m is Harry Potter franchise type of opening and would need something really special to happen for RPO.

 

 

 

Edited by Barnack

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Anything over 50M would be a victory for RPO IMO.

 

I really struggle to imagine a scenario in which the movie is any good, so dunno how well it'll do overall.

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I think Spielberg's draw power days are officially over, outside of a big franchise. So I don't have high hopes for RPO at the box office, or at least not to have a big OW. Maybe WOM will be great if the movie delivers. 

Edited by MovieMan89

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17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lots of unusual things with Solo though in terms of an SW release. First time an SW film is being released amidst tons of major competition. The only SW film to have notable competition at all really was AotC, which dealt with Spider-man releasing and overshadowing it only a couple weeks prior. AotC is also the least attended SW film, which is probably not entirely unrelated to the fact that it actually had a huge competitor to deal with. Solo has 4. Solo is the first SW film that has to worry about franchise fatigue actually being a thing, coming off the back of 3 SW films in two and a half years. Solo is the first SW film that won't have the long marketing campaign to really build hype like the franchise usually enjoys, marketing might not even start at all until 2018. Solo is the first SW film where the Force and all the elements that go along with it (i.e. Jedis and Sith and lightsabers) will (likely) be absent. Meaning it could really come off as just any generic action blockbuster with the SW name attached. Finally, Solo has had the most troubled production of any of the films, even switching directors completely a good ways in. Tons of signs point to it being the least successful SW film by a wide margin. Especially staying in that release slot.

 Infinity war will be front loaded, I doubt deadpool 2 will increase from the first and it’s rated r. Solo will have Han and  Chewie and maybe Vader. I think the incredibles and Jurassic World are the biggest threat to Solo but as we’ve seen before multiple movies can coexist. But I think on the Solo issue we’re going to have agree to disagree. I think it’s going to go something like this:

IW: 190/420

Solo: 160/450

Incredibles: 130/430

DP2: 145/360

JW2: 190/530

Edited by famekillss

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2 minutes ago, famekillss said:

 Infinity war will be front loaded, I doubt deadpool 2 will increase from the first and it’s rated r. I think the incredibles and Jurassic World are the biggest threat to Solo but as we’ve seen before multiple movies can coexist. But I think on the Solo issue we’re going to have agree to disagree. 

I think it’s going to go something like this:

IW: 190/420

Solo: 160/450

Incredibles: 130/430

DP2: 145/360

JW2: 190/530

Solo over IW? Really? I give it like a 10% chance. Can see it beating DP2 if it's well received. Can't see it beating the other 3. 

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