Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018

[YM!]

Just now, aabattery said:

Cinderella numbers seem like a good fit for Wrinkle in Time. Maybe a bit lower.

That's what I'm thinking too.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

They're predictions for a reason. Wrinkle if Disney puts good marketing and is family friendly it could happen. New Mutants if it appeals to both the YA crowd and CBM fan I can see it do good. Rampage seems fair in my opinion given San Andreas. RPO screams breakout.

 

I think RPO will be successful but $100m is not easy to attain. Without a trailer, it's very difficult to gage but I trust WB will pull a cracking marketing campaign like they did with their last couple of tentpoles.

[aabattery]

Just now, YourMother said:

That's what I'm thinking too.

 

I changed my mind, thought Cinderella opened to 55M. It was 67M.

 

Can't see Wrinkle in Time getting that high. I'd say around 50M at this point, unless they really kill it with the marketing.

[That One Girl]

On 4/11/2017 at 6:17 PM, That One Guy said:

I've been constantly updating my list with release date shit and all that but here's my list bumped to the front of the page:

 

1. Han Solo - 190/570

2. Jurassic World 2 - 200/500

3. How the Grinch Stole Christmas - 110/440

4. Avengers: Infinity War - 185/435

5. Incredibles 2 - 121/425

6. Deadpool 2 - 130/325

7. Black Panther - 130/315

8. Ready Player One - 100/300

9. Aquaman - 66/264

10. Mortal Engines - 60/249

11. Mulan - 85/237

12. Alita: Battle Angel - 90/230

13. Ant-Man and the Wasp - 80/210

14. Ocean's 8 - 66/195

15. Animated Spider-Man - 45/190

16. Venom - 80/184

17. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 65/182

18. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 45/180

19. First Man - 30/180

20. Mary Poppins Returns - 23/161

21. Rampage - 60/156

22. Mission: Impossible 6 - 50/150

23. Dumbo - 45/150

24. Bohemian Rhapsody - 25/148

25. Hotel Transylvania 3 - 45/144

26. The Pact - 45/139

27. Halloween - 40/130

28. Peter Rabbit - 35/124

29. Predator - 45/122

30. New Mutants - 50/120

31. Dark Phoenix - 45/115

32. Jungle Book: Origins - 40/110

33. Action Point - 40/100

34. Holmes and Watson - 33/100

35. Bumblebee - 40/96

36. Tag - 30/96

37. A Wrinkle in Time - 30/93

38. Smallfoot - 30/92

39. Tomb Raider - 40/90

40. Red Sparrow - 35/88

41. Purge 4 - 33/76

42. Fifty Shades Freed - 35/75

43. The Nun - 30/70

44. White Boy Rick - 24/72

45. Amusement Park - 20/70

46. Night School - 25/68

47. The Spy Who Dumped Me - 20/68

48. Paddington 2 - 16/67

49. Scarface - 19/66

50. Bad Boys for Life - 30/65

51. The Darkest Minds - 25/64

52. Proud Mary - 21/64

53. Skyscraper - 25/63

54. Game Night - 18/62

55. Meg - 25/61

56. Goosebumps 2 - 16/61

57. Slenderman - 30/60

58. Pacific Rim 2 - 28/60

59. Barbie - 19/57

60. Maze Runner: Death Cure - 20/55

61. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! - 17/53

62. Robert Zemeckis project - 14/51

63. A Star is Born - 16/50

64. Widows - 15/49

65. Life of the Party - 18/45

66. The Nightingale - 14/44

67. Sherlock Gnomes - 14/43

68. Equalizer 2 - 17/42

69. Horse Soldiers - 16/42

70. Insidious: Chapter 4 - 20/41

71. The Girl in the Spider's Web - 15/39

72. The Commuter - 15/38

73. The Kid Who Would be King - 14/36

74. Winchester - 14/35

75. Magic Camp - 11/33

76. Robin Hood - 15/30

77. Simon vs. The Homo Sapiens Agenda (which is probably the Greg Berlanti flick) - 10/28

78. Den of Thieves - 12/25

79. A Quiet Place - 10/24

80. Extinction - 10/23

81. God's Not Dead 3 - 7/20

82. Gringo - 7/17

83. Tully - 6/15

84. Captive State - 6/14

85. Entebbe - 5/12

86. Cadaver - 5/10

87. Midnight Sun - 3/7

 

this thread is gaining traction so here's another bump with updates.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, aabattery said:

I can't see 100M at all for Ready Player One. 75M tops IMO. I'd say ~60M is a more realistic goal.

 

Hard to imagine for me too, except if the book become a phenomenon before the release, that would be the biggest ow of all time for a live action of a non well establish franchise.

 

American Sniper at 89 (with a platform release) , Passion of the christ (while Jesus is big) 83m, I am Legend (prime Will smith) 77m and Avatar at 77 million are the only one coming close.

 

The Martian 55 million opening and overall performance (228m dbo/ 630m WW) would be incredible for Ready player one I think.

 

 

 

[That One Girl]

9 minutes ago, aabattery said:

I can't see 100M at all for Ready Player One. 75M tops IMO. I'd say ~60M is a more realistic goal.

 

I'm sorry, but it's based on a popular book, with a world-famous director, released in a prime March spot, being released by a studio known for its excellent marketing campaigns, and has possible multiple quadrant appeal (kids, teens, and adults could all be interested in a film like this if they sell it well).  I think it's going to be the breakout of the year.

 

edit: I thought you were talking about domestic total but whatever, my point still stands!

Edited June 7, 2017 by That One Guy

[aabattery]

Just now, Barnack said:

 

Hard to imagine for me too, except if the book become a phenomenon before the release, that would be the biggest ow of all time for a live action of a non well establish franchise.

 

American Sniper at 89 (with a platform release) , Passion of the christ (while Jesus is big) 83m, I am Legend (prime Will smith) 77m and Avatar at 77 million are the only one coming close.

 

The Martian 55 million opening and overall performance (228m dbo/ 630m WW) would be incredible for Ready player one I think.

 

 

 

 

Martian seems like a real good comparison actually. The book isn't particularly good so I can't see it becoming a phenomenon before the release. 

[YM!]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

I'm sorry, but it's based on a popular book, with a world-famous director, released in a prime March spot, being released by a studio known for its excellent marketing campaigns, and has possible multiple quadrant appeal (kids, teens, and adults could all be interested in a film like this if they sell it well).  I think it's going to be the breakout of the year.

It, Wrinkle, Panther, Grinch, New Mutants, and ASMM will be the big breakouts.

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

this thread is gaining traction so here's another bump with updates.

You're still overestimating most everything in the top 10.

[aabattery]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

I'm sorry, but it's based on a popular book, with a world-famous director, released in a prime March spot, being released by a studio known for its excellent marketing campaigns, and has possible multiple quadrant appeal (kids, teens, and adults could all be interested in a film like this if they sell it well).  I think it's going to be the breakout of the year.

 

Yeah, but 100M is fuck-load of money. Only one Spielberg film has opened that high, and that was an Indiana Jones movie. No doubt it'll do well, but 75M in itself would be a great achievement for this movie. 

[Jonwo]

 

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Hard to imagine for me too, except if the book become a phenomenon before the release, that would be the biggest ow of all time for a live action of a non well establish franchise.

 

American Sniper at 89 (with a platform release) , Passion of the christ (while Jesus is big) 83m, I am Legend (prime Will smith) 77m and Avatar at 77 million are the only one coming close.

 

The Martian 55 million opening and overall performance (228m dbo/ 630m WW) would be incredible for Ready player one I think.

 

 

 

 

I think the concept will sell the film much like Jurassic Park did, Ready Player One sold very well but I think it's going to appeal to a much wider audience especially with Spielberg at the helm. The first trailer is crucial and I imagine it will debut at Comic Con 2017. I can see $70-75m OW but not $100m.

 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

You're still overestimating most everything in the top 10.

Han Solo if it stays in the spot is wayyyyy overestimated. Everything else but JW2, Grinch, and maybe Engines seems fair.

Edited June 7, 2017 by YourMother

[That One Girl]

I think having Jurassic World 2 decreasing 150M is fair.  I don't see why people think that's an overestimation; it was a well liked film that had good legs and a huge ass final gross.  No shit that it'll decrease, but I doubt it'll decrease by that much.

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

I think having Jurassic World 2 decreasing 150M is fair.  I don't see why people think that's an overestimation; it was a well liked film that had good legs and a huge ass final gross.  No shit that it'll decrease, but I doubt it'll decrease by that much.

Thinking around $480M for JW2, it has much stronger competition than the first.

[Barnack]

21 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

 

I think the concept will sell the film much like Jurassic Park did, Ready Player One sold very well but I think it's going to appeal to a much wider audience especially with Spielberg at the helm. The first trailer is crucial and I imagine it will debut at Comic Con 2017. I can see $70-75m OW but not $100m.

 

 

Not sure the concept is a bigger seller for a movie than what The Martian high concept was, it take a bit more sentence, bit more nerdy, sound more like a tv show, seem unsure if it will be pulled off and safe to go see in theater.

 

I agree 70-75m is certainly possible, but like you say the biggest unadjusted opening weekend of all time for a non established franchise live action movie, first one to 100m, with that cast and that concept, the movie would need to deliver big time in those trailers and reviews, 100m that is Independance Day/Jurassic Park/Men In Black adjusted, it is more than Guardian of the Galaxy or Skyfall.

[James]

70m or 100m is still huge for RPO, esp considering it's OS prospects. Either way, I think 500m+ WW is happening for it and that is all it needs to do to be a big success for WB.

[department store basement]

On 6/3/2017 at 6:26 PM, Gokai Red said:

Although if we're being honest, I am almost certain Han Solo will end up being moved to December, just like the previous 3 Star Wars movies before it. 

 

It's not going to. You know why? Because there's no Star Wars Celebration in 2018. If they were going to move it to December I'm sure there would be a Celebration to promote it.

[department store basement]

I think the floor for JW2 is about 410 million. It could go higher but not lower (unless it gets Zoolander 2 levels of fan hatred).

Edited June 7, 2017 by department store basement

[Kalo]

The Avengers, Han Solo, Deadpool 2, Incredibles 2 and JW2 releasing from May to June is just a massive cluster fuck, and it will be really hard for all those movies to make the money they could otherwise if they were more spread out, if none of them move it will hurt them, they will still be huge but not as big as they could be. Han Solo would benefit so much more from a December release.

[miketheavenger]

If Han Solo stays in May, it won't have any legs regardless of how word-of-mouth might be because of the ridiculous competition. Hopefully it moves to December and Deadpool 2 could then move to Memorial Day weekend and maybe Ocean's Eight or Bumblebee to June 1. Speaking of Bumblebee, why are people predicting so much for a Transformers spin-off? Depending on how TF5 does, I could see Bumblebee missing 100m DOM because its legs are going to get slaughtered.

Edited June 7, 2017 by miketheavenger