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WEEKEND THREAD! FRI #s: Lego: 8M: 50SD: 6.6M: GW: 5.8: JW2: 4.1 (pg 8)

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3 hours ago, AndyLL said:

 

It is not baseless speculation to worry that BOM could go away with no warning.   Perhaps you should read about how these forums came about...

I remember our moving day

 

c0a55d985e92b55372dc1383baf26177a15c603c

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37 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Pretty sure this wasn't posted but Variety is projecting 4-day openings of $18M for The Great Wall, $14M for Fist Fight, and $5M for A Cure for Wellness. So exciting, these numbers.

 

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/great-wall-box-office-lego-batman-fist-fight-1201991544/

 

Blame it on the rain..

 

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3 hours ago, baumer said:

 

Sure, it'll lose money initially.  And the budget is way too high but it's not an outright bomb like some make it out to be.

 

What do you mean exactly by loosing money initially ? In the sense that over a couple decade or so it will make it back eventually ? I'm not sure there is that much value in a library now (outside some classic title)

 

Those type of close call performance are case by case, we cannot usually know if they will make or loose money, how accurate budget reporting is, marketing expense, people contract (first dollar gross or not), home video performance all become important factor for those and can vary a lot from title to title. Angels&Demon lost a fortune, Men in black 3 lost money (how were saying that for those 2 before the Sony leak), so little of the revenue is public and usually all the cost are totally private and unknown that we rarely can have a good idea of a movie profit, deadline estimate do a good job for what you can evaluate, but stuff like actors/producers/writers/directors participation bonus and real production budget you often cannot know .

 

Making it even harder, to have a clue if a movie like The Great wall (or Warcraft) will make money or not, you need to have some rough idea in how much home entertainment/tv revenue movies like those will made in the next 3 year's in China, I have not the first idea, but even in a case were they are getting a 43 to 35% of the gross instead of 25%, if they do not have much HE money relative to the domestic market, doubling your budget is China would not be enough.

Edited by Barnack
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So JW2 is gonna fall 50%(3-day to 3-day) even with a holiday Monday to soften the Sunday numbers. 

 

I might've been wrong about the size of its opening, but I think this definitely points to a fanboy rush to see it. The numbers also indicate a limited audience no matter how stellar the reviews. 

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Lego Batman is dipping 34% in its second weekend at 4,088 theaters with $35.3M over three and an estimated $46.5M over four.  Cume by Monday is expected to stand at $111.1M. The Chris McKay movie easily wins Friday night tonight at $8M. Fifty Shades Darkerthanks to playing into the Presidents’ Day weekend, is only expected to shed an amazing -52% with $22.5M over FSS, $26.1M over FSSM and a running cume by EOD Monday of $94.8M. Uni all along (need to give them credit) felt that this was exactly how this movie was going to play out: It was never going to weather the -74% drop of its predecessor. As we say coming out of its Valentine’s Day $11M climax — fans love what they see here.

Even though Lionsgate/Summit’s John Wick: Chapter 2 is ranked fourth fourth behind Uni/Legendary’s The Great Wallthe Keanu Reeves movie is also reaping the rewards of playing into the four-day holiday loaded with a great word of mouth and totally excellent reviews. The sequel’s projected -52% ease in its second weekend isn’t that far from Kingsman: The Secret Service, Fifty Shades’ male counterprogrammer two years ago. That movie declined -49% in its second weekend. John Wick 2‘s will lift an estimated $14.7M over three and $17.4M over four for a near $60M 11-day haul.

Of the new stuff, Uni’s The Great Wall, propped by 3D and Imax surcharges, is expected to win Friday with $5.5M, a $15.6M FSS and $18.2M four-day. On a three-day basis it’s off 35% from Warcraft‘s $24.1M opening, and again that can be attributed to lack of a franchise IP property behind this film, and the fact that it’s not playing in the summer. Still, it’s a disastrous opening for a film stateside that carries a $150M production cost and estimated $110M-$120M P&A. That said, the distributors knew the U.S. wasn’t the primary audience for this Zhang Yimou spectacle; that’s why they opened it in China and certain territories abroad first where it’s amassed $225M. The film was tarnished the minute it dropped its first trailer last year. with some people in the media crying foul over the pic’s whitewashing. But that’s not why the movie is failing here: it’s the bad reviews at 35% rotten.

Remember that 1987 Universal comedy Three O’Clock High? It was about a nerd’s high school battle with a bully on the school yard. That movie didn’t work back then at the box office ($3.7M) and neither is Warner Bros/New Line’s Fist Fight 30 years later with the R-rated comedy is poised to make $3.9M today, $11.1M over three and $13.1M over four. New Line kept this comedy at a low budget, sources tell us an estimated $25M with a low $30M P&A spend. Ice Cube was paid upfront. More than Charlie Day being more of a second banana than leading man, the movie’s problem — just like Three O’Clock High‘s — is that it’s so low stakes in its teacher playground fight that it’s not enough to make people get off their couch and drive to the multiplex, and if they want to watch this type of bawdy comedy, they can take in HBO’s Danny McBride series Vice Principals on demand. Reviewers are the biggest bully at 34% rotten.

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2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Can someone explain to me how LB does $45M 4 Day after a $8M Friday.

Answer Me!

:ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod:

 

Spongebob did 40M from a 6.5M Friday with the same calendar configuration. It just needs to follow those increases and drops 8M, 17M, 13M, 8M

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