Friday Numbers (The Vow: 15.4M; Safe House: 13.8M; Star Wars 3D: 8.7M; Journey 2: 6.6M)

[CJohn]

http://www.deadline....afe-house-530k/

FRIDAY PM/SATURDAY AM, 5TH UPDATE: After much bigger-than-expected midnights and matinees and now opening night, hang on for a wild record-setting ride. Because Hollywood is confident the North American box office can debut four major movies to $20+M on this non-holiday weekend. For certain, that’s never been done before.* Overall moviegoing adds up to $170M, the biggest non-holiday Fri-Sat-Sun in February of all time. That’s also up 30% from last year to kick up the red hot 2012 start even more. I for one am relieved not to have to write the word ‘slump’.

There were real surprises Friday: Sony Pictures/Screen Gems’ The Vow was expected to be the certain frontrunner because of strong tracking. It’s even bigger than projected. The PG-13 romantic tearjerker starring Channing Tatum and Rachel McAdams took in $700K in midnight shows and drew a ‘B’ CinemaScore from audiences. After seesawing for the lead, it came on strong Friday evening – aka Date Night — to win #1. Universal’s Safe House also wildly overperformed for an adult-targeted R-rated actioner and snagged an ‘A-’ CinemaScore from audiences. It’s yet another winner for reliable Denzel Washington after adding $542K in midnights and then taking flight for #2. Both films are looking at huge $38M-$39M weekends and a battle through Monday.

LucasFilm/Fox’s Star Wars 3D: Episode I – Phantom Menace jumped out in matinees just as it did for $1.1M midnights. But most of that was pre-sales and its momentum slowed by Friday night to what’s probably a $22M weekend which is still a lot of coin. Fanboys wanted to be first in line for this latest version of 1999′s much derided prequel; now can regular moviegoers tolerate Jar Jar Binks again? It all depends on how frontloaded this wild card winds up. It may be beaten by Warner Bros’ PG-rated Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 3D which already opened solid overseas with $50M. With an ‘A-’ CinemaScore and starring Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson, it’ll strengthen during weekend family matinees to probably reach $21M in the U.S./Canada.

*For the record, on the 2008 holiday weekend December 26-28, all four movies opened on Christmas and all four enjoyed $20+M openings in the three-day weekend: Fox’s Marley And Me ($36.4M), Disney’s Bedtime Stories ($27.4), Paramount’s Benjamin Button ($26.9M), and MGM/UA’s Valkyrie ($21M).

Here are Top Ten numbers which will refine in the morning with full analysis:

1. The Vow (Screen Gems/Sony) NEW [2,958 Theaters]

Est Friday $15.5M, Est Weekend $39M

2. Safe House (Universal) NEW [3,119 Theaters]

Est Friday $15M, Est Weekend $38M

3. Star Wars 3D: Phantom Menace (LucasFilm/Fox) NEW [2,655 Theaters]

Est Friday $8.5M, Est Weekend $22M

4. Journey 2: Mysterious Island 3D (Warner Bros) NEW [3,470 Theaters]

Est Friday $6.5M, Est Weekend $21M

5. Chronicle (Fox) Week 2 [2,908 Theater]

Est Friday $3.5M (-59%), Est Weekend $11M, Est Cume $39M

6. The Woman In Black (CBS Films) Week 2 [2,856 Theaters]

Est Friday $3.4M (-58%), Est Weekend $11M, Est Cume $36.1M

7. The Grey (Open Road) Week 3 [2,801 Theaters]

Est Friday $1.3M, Est Weekend $4.5M, Est Cume $42.4M

8. Big Miracle (Working Title/Universal) Week 2 [2,133 Theaters]

Est Friday $952K (-59%), Est Weekend $3.5M, Est Cume $13M

9. The Descendants (Fox Searchlight) Week 13 [1,581 Theaters]

Est Friday $900K, Est Weekend $3.5M, Est Cume $70.7M

10. One For The Money (Lionsgate) Week 3 [2,056 Theaters]

Est Friday $725K, Est Weekend $2.2M, Est Cume $23.6M

Edited February 11, 2012 by CJohn

[Chaz]

WOW. I doubt all three will get over $30 million, but what a great weekend regardless!

[fishstick]

[Letsuseournoggin]

WTF @ Safe House?!?!?! Almost 40M? Get the f outta here.

[CJohn]

Star Wars will be frontloaded so not sure. The Vow and Safe House should make it.Insane for Safe House. The SB Tv Spots, Denzel as the bad guy and Ryan Reynolds. Ryan Reynolds proves that GL and TCU failling had nothing to do with him.

[baumer]

It's 1:30 on the west coast. These numbers seem awfully early. But if they hold, that is a gigantic day for all three films.

FRIDAY 1 PM UPDATE: This is exciting because of much bigger-than-expected matinees. Hang on for a wild ride because Hollywood is now holding its collective breath to see whether the North American box office can open three major movies to $30+ million on a non-holiday weekend. Studio execs are racing to check stats if this has ever happened before. As it is they still wonder if four major movies can debut to $20+ million on this non-holiday weekend. For certain, that’s never been done before.* I for one am so relieved not to write the word ‘slump’ when it comes to 2012′s theatrical grosses. There are real surprises so far today: Sony Pictures/Screen Gems’ The Vow was expected to be the certain frontrunner and it’s even stronger than expected. But now Universal’s Safe House also is overperforming wildly and could become the weekend winner. And LucasFilm/Fox’s Star Wars 3D: Episode I – Phantom Menace is soaring in matinees just as it did in midnights. It all depends on how frontloaded this wild card winds up. Here are Friday/weekend projections right now from my sources which will refine tonight:

1. Safe House (Universal) NEW [3,119 Theaters]

Estimated Friday $14M, Estimated Weekend $38M

1. The Vow (Screen Gems/Sony) NEW [2,958 Theaters]

Estimated Friday $13M, Estimated Weekend $36M

3. Star Wars 3D: Episode I – Phantom Menace (LucasFilm/Fox) NEW [2,655 Theaters]

Estimated Friday $11M, Estimated Weekend $33M

4. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island (Warner Bros) NEW [3,470 Theaters]

Estimated Friday $4M, Estimated Weekend $18M

[CoolioD1]

I thought for sure that SAFE HOUSE would fail and the other two would do much better.

[blackspider]

It's not even 2 pm here in California. I'm taking these numbers with a grain of salt until a more updated version later tonight with more data. But still impressive openings for Safe House, The Vow, and TPM. Meh at Journey 2.

[baumer]

Star Wars will be frontloaded so not sure. The Vow and Safe House should make it.Insane for Safe House. The SB Tv Spots, Denzel as the bad guy and Ryan Reynolds. Ryan Reynolds proves that GL and TCU failling had nothing to do with him.

SW will not be front loaded. The Friday crowd will come out in full force for sure, but this is a kids friendly picture and the Saturday number should go up. I have no idea what it will do today, 10 mill, 11, 12. But I'm pretty sure it will go up tomorrow.

[Letsuseournoggin]

I was so sure that Safe House would be the one to disappoint. Time for me to shut up.

[RichWS]

That's CRAZY for Safe House. Awesome for The Vow. Wowee. It's going to be a close race for #1. I would imagine Phantom either has a very small increase or decrease on Saturday.

[baumer]

I thought for sure that SAFE HOUSE would fail and the other two would do much better.

Why on earth would you think the other two would do better than 30 mill?

[grey ghost]

Damn, Safe House came out of nowhere.Audiences love when Denzel plays the baddie. He should just play bad guys from now on.

[CJohn]

Safe House is just fucking insane. I am shocked.

[CoolioD1]

Why on earth would you think the other two would do better than 30 mill?

No, i meant that they would do much better than Safe House.

[Bitcher]

Calm down dude, these are just early numbers from Nikki, no reason to get all...SAFE HOUSE OVER VOW?!?! FUCK YEAH!Not even in my wildest dreams could I picture something like this. Only Denzel could pull it off. He is mah nigga.That said, pretty insane for top 3. Star Wars especially. In such company, Journey 2 looks pretty weak, though its number is rather expected. Edited February 10, 2012 by Bitcher

[CJohn]

Journey 2 is TANKING. That 110M budget still doesn't make sense.

[Letsuseournoggin]

No, i meant that they would do much better than Safe House.

I was thinking the same thing. I thought Safe House would barely clear 20M, if that. And that Vow would hit over 35M, with Phantom coming in at a solid 27 or 28M. But Safe House gunning for number one and a closer to 40M weekend? WTF is going on? Edited February 10, 2012 by Letsuseournoggin

[CJohn]

Denzel is a huge draw. Join that he being the bad guy, Ryan Reynolds and a fantastic marketing campaign. Those 2 SuperBowl Tv Spots helped like shit.Same with SB Tv Spot for Star Wars.

[RichWS]

Journey 2 is TANKING. That 110M budget still doesn't make sense.

Nope. And the marketing was terrible.