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Best actress predictions-2017

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20 hours ago, spaghetti! said:

Gonna go with Chastain, Streep, Hawkins, McDormand, and Ronan for now. I can definitely see Hawkins winning it.

Sounds about right, though we have to wait and see what Winslet's performance in Wonder Wheel is like (or if the film is another one of Allen's turds we can write off). 

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With Wonder Wheel looking to get very mixed reviews, I think Winslet's out. She's getting praised for the film (obviously), but not enough to overcome the weakness of the film overall and what will likely be a bunch of Allen thinkpieces in the Weinstein aftermath. Meanwhile, I think Dench is in. Victoria & Abdul is doing really well at the box office, and this is the kind of role they love recognizing. Can easily see her getting Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations.

 

New predictions:

 

Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Meryl Streep, The Post

 

On the outside looking in:

 

Jessica Chastian, Molly's Game

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

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Winslet is done now that Wonder Wheel's NYFF premiere got canned. The industry won't be there for this at all. I feel pretty good about the top three being McDormand/Streep/Hawkins and the last two spots between Chastain, Robbie, and Ronan with an outside chance for Dench and Lawrence depending on how much support their films have.

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1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

with an outside chance for Lawrence

 

1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

...

 

Listen, and understand! Wrath of Han is out there! He can't be bargained with, he can't be reasoned with. He doesn't know shame, or temperance, or self-control, and he absolutely will not stop, ever, until everyone predicts Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress.

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Margot will win. feel good about Sally/Margot/Frances/Meryl line-up though would love Meryl to miss but that won't happen, ugh. Flip-flopping between Saoirse (young and not a big campaigner) and Jessica (old and a big campaigner) for the 5th spot. They don't usually nominate 2 actresses in early-mid 20s (Saoirse, Margot) so currently it looks like one or the other and Margot's gonna campaign her ass off. 

Edited by Valonqar
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On 10/18/2017 at 9:39 PM, Valonqar said:

Margot will win. feel good about Sally/Margot/Frances/Meryl line-up though would love Meryl to miss but that won't happen, ugh. Flip-flopping between Saoirse (young and not a big campaigner) and Jessica (old and a big campaigner) for the 5th spot. They don't usually nominate 2 actresses in early-mid 20s (Saoirse, Margot) so currently it looks like one or the other and Margot's gonna campaign her ass off. 

Ah yes. Jessica Chastain the ancient 

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9 hours ago, filmlover said:

His vendetta against Jessica Chastain, of all people, never ceases to baffle. He even once said that :insane:was her. lol.

Oh, c'mon now! Jurassica, Jessica's age, etc are harmless jokes from AW like Nanny, K*** W*****, El Senor, Felicias, etc. I should have said veteran instead of old. I really meant "not an ingenue". 

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It would be amazing for someone like McDormand to win a 2nd lead actress oscar because she was always a character actress, even after her first win never got leading roles. She might have been the main lead in a tiny movie nobody saw at some point, I don't know, but the only movies I remember her being the sole lead is Fargo and 3 Billboards. Imagine if she win oscars for both.

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I don't see what McDormand's narrative is and narrative is what decides a winner. I know she's getting raves but so are Sally, etc. I think this is going to be Sally (mute yet sexy) vs Margot (iconic RL person). Sally wins GG Drama. Margot wins GG Comedy. Sally wins BAFTA. Margot wins SAG. AMPAS? 

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This is one of the most exciting races. Fierce competition, huge contenders behind the top 5. My line-up, ATM

 

Sally Hawkins (stellar reviews in a BP contender)

Frances Mc Dormand (stellar reviews in a BP contender)

Margot Robbie (breakout performance, ina prestige film + biopic)

Meryl Streep (goddess. Living legend. In a prestige film likely nom. December hype. Biopic)

Saoirse Ronan (making history. They really love her. Stellar reviews. In a BP contender)

 

There will be also supporters for

Emma Stone (victory lap, great performance, liked movie. But, no huge reception, light tone)

Kate Winslet (noteworthy great reviews for her. Loved actress. But movie not loved)

Judi Dench (signature role. Solid indie BO run. She's loved. But not great reviews for the movie)

Jessica Chastain (she's consistently in the run for a nom. December opening might help) 

Gal Gadot (she carries a huge hit with charm/charisma. They love rising stars. If we were in a weaker year...)

Diane Kruger (Cannes prize. Well liked actress, red carpet and media attention? Platform opening)

 

 

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