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WEEKEND THREAD | Official Weekend Estimates: Beauty and the Beast - 88.3M; Power Rangers - 40.5M; Life - 12.6M; Other Numbers First Post. Gokira has been threadbanned.

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1 minute ago, Alli said:

Possible?    Edge of Tomorrow rocks my boat!

 

It's still a mystery to me why it flopped

 

OK. I'm a huge Tom Cruise fan (and retroactively became a huge Emily Blunt fan as well) but as great as the first 8/10ths of that movie are, the last part I found exceedingly contrived. Maybe I will have to watch it again, since so many people are praising it to the high heavens. Then, maybe my boat will be rocked. 

 

I'm also puzzled as to why it did not make more money though, far, far inferior movies make tons. :sadben:

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21 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Edge of Tomorrow and Arrival were flat out excellent, but yes that was my point the scenario that Passenger end up being bad was obviously possible and the floor for non-ip/genre movie is pretty hard to predict now, it can get really low, Jupiter Ascending (47 million) and Transcendence (23 million) clearly did show that.

 

Elysium and Oblivion still got above average metacritic score for a studio release, had 2 of the best box office draw in the world and still didn't reach it that mark.

 

Oh yes, Arrival was good as well (not excellent imo) but it was not your action-y type blockbuster so its BO take can only be seen as a clear success. Yes, original sci-fi seems to be stuck in relatively low numbers regardless of leads or premise. You are right on that one. Passengers could have broken through the barrier (thanks to its two super-popular leads) but quality-wise was a massive letdown.

 

19 minutes ago, George Parr said:

 

It will need some pretty good legs to get it done.

At this point it is about 30m ahead, but by Friday it will probably be 25m behind, as Rogue One made 88m over those four weekdays for a total of 375m, while BatB might make maybe 35m for a total of about 350m by Friday. Rogue One followed that up with a 49.6m third weekend, BatB would need to drop no more than 44% to match that, if the current estimates are correct. That is doable, but it isn't going to gain a lot over that weekend. With Rogue One adding another 30m over the next weekdays, BatB will probably be further behind by the time the 4th weekend hits than it will be the upcoming Friday. It should be able to have better number afterwards, but at that point it will already be around 30m behind.

 

Dark Knight was behind even further at that point and still came out ahead, but that's a rather tough performance to match.

 

Hmm. I didn't run through the numbers, but BatB seems to be holding really well considering its epic opening weekend. Maybe a comparison with TJB is more apt and useful than with Rogue One's holiday-skewed numbers. 

 

Edit: BatB is already $127M ahead of TJB and its second Sunday is still more than 50% bigger than TJB's equivalent. So, $364M (TJB domestic total) plus $127M equals $491M. Can't BatB find $40M or so across its run. I guess it should. 

Edited by PPZVGOS
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TOP OPENING GROSSES BY 10 DAYS IN RELEASE

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/grossbydays.htm?days=10&p=.htm

 

 

Rank Movie Title Studio Opening % of
Total
Theaters / Avg Total Gross Release
1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $540,058,914 57.7% 4,134 $130,638 $936,662,225 F, 12/18/15
2 Jurassic World Uni. $402,800,065 61.8% 4,291 $93,871 $652,270,625 F, 6/12/15
3 Marvel's The Avengers BV $373,071,647 59.8% 4,349 $85,783 $623,357,910 F, 5/4/12
4 Beauty and the Beast (2017) BV $319,032,604 100.0% 4,210 $75,780 $319,032,604 F, 3/17/17
5 The Dark Knight WB $313,781,677 58.8% 4,366 $71,869 $533,345,358 F, 7/18/08
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Mr. Wick is a couple weeks away from a 3x multiplier, slightly better than the first film, and that's after it opened over twice as big as the first film. I think Chapter 3 is going to fly past $100 million, especially given what the plot is going to be.

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46 minutes ago, cannastop said:

TOP OPENING GROSSES BY 10 DAYS IN RELEASE

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/grossbydays.htm?days=10&p=.htm

 

 

Rank Movie Title Studio Opening % of
Total
Theaters / Avg Total Gross Release
1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $540,058,914 57.7% 4,134 $130,638 $936,662,225 F, 12/18/15
2 Jurassic World Uni. $402,800,065 61.8% 4,291 $93,871 $652,270,625 F, 6/12/15
3 Marvel's The Avengers BV $373,071,647 59.8% 4,349 $85,783 $623,357,910 F, 5/4/12
4 Beauty and the Beast (2017) BV $319,032,604 100.0% 4,210 $75,780 $319,032,604 F, 3/17/17
5 The Dark Knight WB $313,781,677 58.8% 4,366 $71,869 $533,345,358 F, 7/18/08

Heading for $550m

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That $90m actual for BATB is just sick. Blowing the doors off of it. On Saturday, BATB became just the sixth film to have a $30m DOM day after already passing $250m DOM. The others are the Avengers, TFA, R1, Jurassic World, and Ultron. That's steep company.


I guess it's official now: There is no spring thaw between the Christmas and Summer blockbuster seasons. You can release a true blockbuster any time. 

Edited by SteveJaros
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29 minutes ago, a2knet said:

BATB's 2nd weekend was not very far from TJB's ow - 90 vs 103.

If it has jungle book legs from here to the end of its run that's about 226m.  Plus 319 = 545 million.  The top end.  When I work through it I come up with 505-515.

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2 hours ago, CJohn said:

It did 400k this weekend out of thin air lmao. It is 110k away. It will do it.

 

2 hours ago, RandomJC said:

Passengers Fri-Sat-Sun is fucking hilarious, if I believe Numbers

 

2 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

On the multiplex I went last weekend it was only playing Saturday, so I guess they make sense.

 

3 hours ago, junkshop36 said:

 

That's not fudge. 

 

This is fudge:

 

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story BV $469,000

-6.7%

 

 

 

?

 

8 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

There's one way to find out.

 

@Rth and the BeastDid the big Saturday boost for Passengers come from double/triple features or stand alone screenings or both?

 

Thank you.

 

A Lot, I think by now know what happens in Domestic market when it comes to a program that contain two or more films (double/Triple feature) these days mainly at drive-ins,  that all the films in the program get 100% of the gross allocated to them (this particular method  of allocation happens nowhere else in the world, nor has it ever).

Also note  that Domestic is only market where you can have a Double/Tripe feature with a mix studio/distributors, elsewhere it must be from the same, so in International you can't put say WB with a Disney it must be a WB+WB or Disney+ Disney.

At the moment pairing BATB with R1 is common along with triple BATB + R1 + Pass

 

The thing is with this method that Domestic has adopted from eons ago , that it all comes out in the wash so while  R1 gets some BO increase from the pairing with BATB, in for example a few weeks BATB might bet a boost from say pairing with GOTG2 or something else tha'ts newer.

 

weekend

Rogue 1

Is a mix of double/tripe feature at drive-in along with discount houses and a few other regular

 

Passengers

a handful of double/triple features at drive-in, rest screening at regular multiples that happened mainly on Saturday only. So majority of the weekend BO didn't come from it being part of another program.

 

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Top Playdates 26-Mar
All BATB

Combined E-Walk NYC +Empire 25 NYC would be #2
CPLX Yonge & Dundas + CPLX Scotiabank Toronto be #5

1-EL Capitan Hollywood
2-AMC Disney Springs , Orlando FL
3-Cobb Dolphin , Miami FL
4-AMC Garden State, Paramus NJ
5-AMC Lincoln Square NYC
6-AMC Burbank
7-CM MountainView CA
8-CPLX Queensways, Etobicoke ON
9-AMC Boston Commons
10-AMC Tysons Corner, Mclean VA
11-PAc Glendale CA
12-Regal Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn NY
13-CS Warren 14, Moore OK 
14-CPLX Vaughan ON
15-Regal Deer Park NY
16-CPLX Scotiabank Chinook Calgary

 

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12 minutes ago, Rth and the Beast said:

Top Playdates 26-Mar
All BATB

Combined E-Walk NYC +Empire 25 NYC would be #2
CPLX Yonge & Dundas + CPLX Scotiabank Toronto be #5

1-EL Capitan Hollywood
2-AMC Disney Springs , Orlando FL
3-Cobb Dolphin , Miami FL
4-AMC Garden State, Paramus NJ
5-AMC Lincoln Square NYC
6-AMC Burbank
7-CM MountainView CA
8-CPLX Queensways, Etobicoke ON
9-AMC Boston Commons
10-AMC Tysons Corner, Mclean VA
11-PAc Glendale CA
12-Regal Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn NY
13-CS Warren 14, Moore OK 
14-CPLX Vaughan ON
15-Regal Deer Park NY
16-CPLX Scotiabank Chinook Calgary

 

Good one, also Can you say hi to Thor back on Asgard for me.

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there were single showings of the new Smurf's movie on Saturday from the same studio (Sony/Columbia).  I am pretty sure that gross was given to Passengers.  That being said, Smurfs did about 280k sneak previews.  Is this a good # for sneak previews?  Passengers should be at 99.90 by Friday, and could probably get there with a couple more weeks of second run discount cinema.

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