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alisson23

September: The cursed month. Will IT break its curse?

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Almost everyone already knows that September is a cursed month. There is a reason why studios are so afraid of releasing a movie in September. No matter how full of hype a movie is, but in ~ 90% of the time it does below the expectation:
Tracking vs actuals
Blair Witch 15M-20M VS 9.5M
MR2 40M VS 30M
M7 40M VS 34M
Bridget Jones 13-17M VS 8.5M
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 40M VS 34M
Black mass (higher pre sales than MR2, a YA movie sequel, but lower OW)
Storks 30M VS 20M
...........

The only domestic successes we saw this month only happened because of its "low" budget or because it was Hotel Transylvania. We have not even seen a movie that made $ 200M in this month. It is the ONLY one which doesn't have. Look at the openings of this month. They are so unimpressive compared to any other month. Even Fox has already noticed that September is cursed and has already taken out Maze Runner 3 this month.

 

* As the Lord of the theaters said:
It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a movie studio to have a big hit with a September release.*

 

Why is September so limited?
Will IT (which is full of buzz and hype) break its curse or at least help to reduce the number of disappointments of this month??
What do you think?

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It, Ninjago, and Kingsman 2 will be the big hits of September.

IT: $65M/$170M

Kingsman2: $55M/$165M

Ninjago: $40M/$140M

IT has a good chance for over $200M domestic, and if IT can't do it, SCOOB will.

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In the past few years, the grosses have shown that if the studios release a quality product (or at least one the GA seems to enjoy), then people will see it. January, February, March, and April used to be avoided, but the in the past few years, we've had movies break out, or at least open, to record breaking numbers, such as American Sniper, Deadpool, The Hunger Games, Alice in Wonderland, Batman v Superman, Furious 7, and most recently, Beauty and the Beast. With the summer and holiday seasons being more packed than ever, studios have to expand outside of the typical release frames. It's only a matter of time before we see movies grossing 70+m OW in September and October, which are the last two months that do not have a movie with at least 85m OW. It's not the date, it's the movies. If Star Wars opened in the middle of September, it would still make 200+ OW.

 

As for this club, based on the gigantic number of trailer views, nostalgia, and an empty September, I will say in, with 60/175 for It.

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200M for It???

110M-130M would already be awesome

 

Anyways we have had a lot of mid-range hit movies in September. Almost every year we have 2-3.

Sully, Visit, Hotel Transilvania, Make Runner 1, Equalizer, Insidious2, Cloudy, Prisoners, Contagion, Moneyball, The Town... 

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8 hours ago, YourMother said:

It, Ninjago, and Kingsman 2 will be the big hits of September.

IT: $65M/$170M

Kingsman2: $55M/$165M

Ninjago: $40M/$140M

IT has a good chance for over $200M domestic, and if IT can't do it, SCOOB will.

If this happen, we really can say the "curse" is over.

 

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

Because for the industry, it's downtime between the busy season of summer and the prestige of awards season.

 

5 hours ago, Gokai Red said:

In the past few years, the grosses have shown that if the studios release a quality product (or at least one the GA seems to enjoy), then people will see it. January, February, March, and April used to be avoided, but the in the past few years, we've had movies break out, or at least open, to record breaking numbers, such as American Sniper, Deadpool, The Hunger Games, Alice in Wonderland ...

 

As for this club, based on the gigantic number of trailer views, nostalgia, and an empty September, I will say in, with 60/175 for It.

Great point.But I don't think it has much to do with quality. In my opinion, the audience is very accustomed to seeing many uninteresting movies in September and so they don't care about going to the movies that month. Imo, the problem is this: distributors do not put movies with great potential to be hit. We have never seen a sequel to a big movie being released in September (Hotel Transylvania 2 does not count because the first movie was released that month). We'll have the first now (maybe), Kingsman 2. But I think "IT" will matter more to break this curse. If IT does really great, it will increase the flow of people in the cinema, benefit the other films and this will help the month to not to be seen as "trash", or a month which only has movies no one wants to see.

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I think it all depends on the marketing and how the next trailer will be received.

9 hours ago, Stormagden said:

IT has almost as much trailer views as Justice League and the response is overwhelmingly positive. I think this movie make a lot. I'm also intrested as to how well scooby-doo does next year.

Almost as much? I thought it had more?

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42 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Not many appealing movies maybe?

I mean, it is ridiculous to think a person won't see a movie he wants to see just because it is September...

I am 100 percent sure any Star Wars, Marvel etc etc would do huge numbers in any September.

I'm not being ridiculous, I wanna to discuss here. Of course they would be huge, but why not release in September then ??
Don't you think the potential of the movies released in September are diminished?
In December we have weaker openings and incredible legs, but there is a reason for that. What about September?

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11 hours ago, Stormagden said:

IT has almost as much trailer views as Justice League and the response is overwhelmingly positive. I think this movie make a lot. I'm also intrested as to how well scooby-doo does next year.

 

I guess this is Youtube only since IT broke the trailer traffic record by 60m+ views. (197m in 24 hours). 

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Trailer views don't mean much. 50 Shades darker broke YT views records and opened with less than 50 Shades of Grey. They show there's an interest in watching a trailer, not necessarily in watching a movie. Although IT will be a huge hit. That's a given. Just not because of YT, etc views.

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8 hours ago, Gokai Red said:

In the past few years, the grosses have shown that if the studios release a quality product (or at least one the GA seems to enjoy), then people will see it. January, February, March, and April used to be avoided, but the in the past few years, we've had movies break out, or at least open, to record breaking numbers, such as American Sniper, Deadpool, The Hunger Games, Alice in Wonderland, Batman v Superman, Furious 7, and most recently, Beauty and the Beast. With the summer and holiday seasons being more packed than ever, studios have to expand outside of the typical release frames. It's only a matter of time before we see movies grossing 70+m OW in September and October, which are the last two months that do not have a movie with at least 85m OW. It's not the date, it's the movies. If Star Wars opened in the middle of September, it would still make 200+ OW.

 

As for this club, based on the gigantic number of trailer views, nostalgia, and an empty September, I will say in, with 60/175 for It.

 

Star Wars in September would be hilarious. Open up Labor Day Weekend, the biggest pile of shit weekend around, and watch a 7 week run at #1. Lol. Yeah September is still box office Kryptonite so I don't see that happening. 

 

I am loving how big movies come out in more seasons now though. As a kid I used to have triple depression - back to school, weather starts sucking ass, and summer movie season over. As an adult I still don't give a shit about the godawful awards movies of the winter so I am still bummed about summer ending but it's not as severe anymore. 

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49 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Trailer views don't mean much. 50 Shades darker broke YT views records and opened with less than 50 Shades of Grey. They show there's an interest in watching a trailer, not necessarily in watching a movie. Although IT will be a huge hit. That's a given. Just not because of YT, etc views.

 

There's a HUGE difference when a movie focusing on female audiences, that already has a (big) fandom established breaks this record, and when a Horror movie do this. 

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