ADRIFT | STX | Shailene Woodley, Sam Claflin....June 1st...trailer page 2...based on a true story

[norbar]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

This looks intense but needs more star power. Detergent fiasco didn't do Shai any favors and this is partly her Gravity (just her on the screen for significant amount of time). 

Pretty little lies was big. Remember that. Also I think the fault in our stars was after at least one Detergent. She is also fairly outspoken so she gets a lot of press and good will from progressive young women. That doesn't make her a huge star but someone well suited for a movie that would do well if it ended above 30M+ 

[baumer]

I hope this does well for Woodley's sake.  I have always liked her, and she is a terrific actress.  TFIOS is one of my favourite films and she has what I consider one of the the best performances on the decade in that film, so yes, I am rooting for her and this film to do well.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, norbar said:

Pretty little lies was big. Remember that. Also I think the fault in our stars was after at least one Detergent. She is also fairly outspoken so she gets a lot of press and good will from progressive young women. That doesn't make her a huge star but someone well suited for a movie that would do well if it ended above 30M+ 

You mean Big Little Lies. 

 

 

[DAJK]

If they had cast Elgort instead of Claflin, sure it would have seemed gimmicky to us, but I’m sure the majority of adults going to see this wouldn’t care, and it would add at least 10M to the overall gross from teen audiences just from the buzz it would have created.

[SLAM!]

Now, take from it what you will, but I was playing Spotify music on my phone during a car ride, and I heard an advertisement for this film on the service. Movie advertisement on Spotify is nothing new -- I've heard them for Krampus and A Quiet Place and Truth or Dare and other films over the years -- but I still think that STX's willingness to make Spotify advertisements is fairly noteworthy.

 

Based on the type of films that are around it, I don't think this will outright fail. I'm sure this has an audience, and that it'll be on the higher end of grosses from STX's slate.

[baumer]

I have no idea how well this will open, but I'm really looking forward to this.  I have one more week of work left and then I'm on vacation for a week.  So I'll be seeing this on the Monday of it's release.  Maybe this can open in the range of Book Club and then build the wom from there.  It looks like a story worth telling.  

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

I have no idea how well this will open, but I'm really looking forward to this.  I have one more week of work left and then I'm on vacation for a week.  So I'll be seeing this on the Monday of it's release.  Maybe this can open in the range of Book Club and then build the wom from there.  It looks like a story worth telling.  

I'm also looking forward to this but the marketing campaign has been really quiet. Best case scenario it'll likely make as much as the director's previous movie (Everest, another true story survival drama).

Edited May 28, 2018 by filmlover

[baumer]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

I'm also looking forward to this but the marketing campaign has been really quiet. Best case scenario it'll likely make as much as the director's previous movie (Everest, another true story survival drama).

 

Well, the opening might be muted, but wom could carry it.

[Cochofles]

This will be Shailene's The Shallows ...

[harrycaul]

Who is the audience for survival romance, though? I guess it'll do ok, but it's hard to see it breaking out at all.

[baumer]

On 28/05/2018 at 12:51 PM, harrycaul said:

Who is the audience for survival romance, though? I guess it'll do ok, but it's hard to see it breaking out at all.

 

Good movies....uh...find a way.

[SLAM!]

On 5/28/2018 at 3:51 PM, harrycaul said:

Who is the audience for survival romance, though? I guess it'll do ok, but it's hard to see it breaking out at all.

 

 

Sure, it's a bit different, but it's survival romance.

[norbar]

7 hours ago, baumer said:

 

Good movies....uh...find a way.

Nope they don't. Many great movies failed at the box office. Wom means nothing if the premise is so unappealing people are not eager to see it. Not saying it's the case here but becoming a cult film 10years after the release is not exactly "the way". 

[Valonqar]

On 5/28/2018 at 12:16 PM, Cochofles said:

This will be Shailene's The Shallows ...

Which would be great. The Shallows = 17M budget, 119M WW gross (55M dom, 64M OS, 16.8M OW)  Low key hit but big profit. 

[dxmatrixdt]

this one has been hard for me to predict.  I've just been throwing numbers at this one.  100 tickets Friday + 125 Saturday + 95 Sunday = 320 purchases x $9.16 average = $2,931.2 per/theater average.  estimates location count of 2,900.  these 2,900 theaters multiply with this average of $2,931.2 for this particular domestic weekend prediction.   2,900 x $2,931.2 = $8,500,480.  + previews.  for perspective, 100 purchases a day at $9.16 for 3,333 theaters = approx. 3.05m 

Edited May 30, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[Maxmoser3]

Never heard anything about this movie. May be lucky for a $10 million start. 

[el sid]

Titanic came to my mind immediately .

I could also imagine The Shallows numbers, maybe a bit less. The shark is missing (I could be wrong because I didn't watch the whole trailer for not knowing too much already) but therefor it should attract more couples. Everest was a bit too dark to become a hit or have great WOM. It depends a bit on the ending of Adrift but here WOM could help much more.
I liked the trailer, looks solid and exciting IMO.

 

With all the competition (Solo, DP 2, A: IW, Jurassic World 2 and even The Incredibles 2) it's hard (for me) to see how good or bad it's doing on Pulse; with eye counting it's selling 22/5 minutes at the moment (Upgrade also popped up frequently).

Now there're 12 reviews at RT, 6 fresh, 6 rotten. So worse than for The Shallows but not really bad (if that matters here at all).

 

[WrathOfHan]

The tomato meter atm won’t sway anyone on the fence, and given it’s not in the top 5 on either ticketing site with about 9 hours until previews, that’s a bad sign.

[filmlover]

Shailene's getting very good reviews for this, if nothing else.

[el sid]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

The tomato meter atm won’t sway anyone on the fence, and given it’s not in the top 5 on either ticketing site with about 9 hours until previews, that’s a bad sign.

Yes, 22/5 minutes is a bit meager but maybe it improves quickly or has more walk ups...

Now up to 68% at RT and 5.9/10. 17 reviews fresh, 8 rotten.

Edited May 31, 2018 by el sid