THE THREAD OF THE FURIOUS: Friday #s (DHD, Pg 36) F8 45.5M, BB 6.6M, BATB 5.3M, Smurfs 2.9M, GIS 2.1M

[GiantCALBears]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

Yes. Plenty of profit.

I think we need to change the thinking on this as a pure metric for success. Most studio movies on the surface will make a profit, it's how they do compared to expectations that really matters. 

[GiantCALBears]

You guys think Comcast doesn't already have a F8 profit guided into their earnings? Obviously that's not the case. 

[Eevin]

That Smurfs number has to be wrong, right? 

 

If not, then my Survivor game is going to be...

crushed

[franfar]

45 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

I'm thinking prequels.  

 

Opening scene - Dom on a tricycle trying to take a fast corner. 

 

Resultant head on collision with a kid on Bigwheels leads to skin graft on his skull and his trademark baldness.

 

[narniadis]

11 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Told you all that the hype was missing for this one...it was never going to do anything close to previous one.

 

And with the exception of a few outliers no one expected it - Shit my Derby entry was only 105m and that is up from what I was thinking a week ago (90m.)

 

Minus the Bad WOM angle you could look at Pirates 3 to 4 and see a similar thing going on here (and of "current" stuff - missing characters, etc) and it shouldn't be a surprise that it is opening lower and grossing lower than the last one which did at least 100m more than it would have normally.

[narniadis]

Regarding Deadline's early estimates without Friday numbers those are hard to judge, but Smurfs aside they are all in the "expected" range earlier in the week given how the Easter weekend works. BATB may be a bit inflated but Boss Baby should definitely be over 16m with the way the weekdays have played.

[Barnack]

41 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

I think we need to change the thinking on this as a pure metric for success. Most studio movies on the surface will make a profit, it's how they do compared to expectations that really matters. 

 

Most (has over 50%) but not much more than that, it is about 60% that make a profit I would say, 25% that make a significant one (when you are not Disney).

 

Fully agree that it is compared to expectation that really matter, but those are almost 100% of the time totally unknown and are people estimating (and people expectation can be vastly different than a studio, they often have marketing study about the interest on the movie and other tools that people do not have), it would not surprise me if Universal expected a massive domestic drop, a small bump in China and other newer growing market, with the rest playing between F6 and F7, closer to 7 than 6.

Edited April 14, 2017 by Barnack

[a2k]

Variety 46-50 Fri

Quote

The tentpole is racing toward $101 million to $110 million this weekend, early estimates showed Friday. If projections hold, the eighth installment in the franchise could have the second-highest launch in “Fast” history. The movie is set to earn $46 million to $50 million by Friday end of day.

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/fate-of-the-furious-box-office-opening-110-million-1202030812/

[a2k]

11m weekend would put Smurfs at 29-30 cume (Thu number for Smurfs has not been released but giving it a 15% bump from Wed like BATB and BB got).

Depending on how fast it fades out then 50 dom could happen.

[Maxmoser3]

Not a bad number for a 16 year franchise! 

[JohnnyGossamer]

8 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Variety 46-50 Fri

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/fate-of-the-furious-box-office-opening-110-million-1202030812/

Good, good. I like this number better.

[drdungbeetle]

Obviously if Stallone had been cast as Brian O'Connor and they had used THE FAST RETURN script it would've done over 2 billion!

[Jake Gittes]

With its number of theaters if it does less than 115 it'll actually have a lesser PTA than F6. 102m would give it the same PTA as Fast Five.

[GiantCALBears]

9 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Not a bad number for a 16 year franchise! 

Insane given it could've been dead after entry 3. Props to Universal for embracing the stupid fun. Doubt we are getting back to these levels again though. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

The OD seems pretty good.

 

There's never been a movie that opens around $45-50M OD on a Friday.....and not hit over $100M+ OW.

[GiantCALBears]

6 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

With its number of theaters if it does less than 115 it'll actually have a lesser PTA than F6. 102m would give it the same PTA as Fast Five.

Not that good honestly as a relative comparison. 

[a2k]

THR in line with Deadline 46 Friday

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/box-office-fate-furious-revs-xxm-thursday-previews-993891

[DAJK]

46 Friday? Good... good...

 

my my survivor for that question would be around 97%

[Dementeleus]

3 hours ago, m3racer123 said:

 

 

It always bugs me how they edited these lines in the trailer. I'm curious to see if the film has the same edit point (my guess is that it doesn't).

[a2k]

10.4 + 35.6 + 32 (-10%) + 23 (-28%) = 101 is the max imo considering I have used the same 10% drop from true Fri as F7 and a better Sunday hold that it's 29% drop.